Recently over on APBRMetrics, 82games contributor Steve Ilardi posted his computed adjusted +/-, split into offensive and defensive ratings, based on 6 years worth of data. He weighted the seasons based on how recent they were like this: weight = 1/(2^(YearsAgo +1) http://www.sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2294&sid=626fa4a128dd05d45ebf7c6049fa6da9 You can look at his plus/minus numbers for all players that played last season in the link above. Here they are specifically for the players who'll be on our roster next year; Code: [B]Team Player Min off_apm def_apm stderr tot_apm[/B] HOU Ming, Yao 2,454 +1.58 +4.38 0.85 +5.97 HOU McGrady, Tracy 1,075 +5.47 -0.33 0.95 +5.14 HOU Battier, Shane 1,983 +0.33 +3.92 0.85 +4.26 HOU Hayes, Chuck 786 -4.02 +7.28 1.38 +3.26 LAL Ariza, Trevor 1,904 -0.68 +2.87 1.08 +2.19 HOU Landry, Carl 1,416 -0.85 +0.59 1.93 -0.26 HOU Barry, Brent 809 +0.32 -1.32 0.93 -1.0 HOU Scola, Luis 2,374 -1.81 +0.37 1.5 -1.44 HOU,MEM Lowry, Kyle 1,669 -1.89 -0.04 1.57 -1.92 HOU Brooks, Aaron 1,915 +0.30 -6.75 1.91 -6.45 And here's a offense vs. defense graph for those who like 'em for each of our players. X-axis is their defensive ability according to adjusted +/-, and Y-axis is offensive ability. Pretty cool how the results fall in line with our subjective perception of these players, without being based on any boxscore numbers (e.g. ppg, rpg, bpg, spg, etc. are not looked at for the ratings). Ron Artest, by the way, scored very well by this metric. +2.2 on offense, and a +5.1 on defense. Not sure how much of that was last season, versus prior years. A little surprised that Landry and Scola don't fare better. It's a good idea to remember that these "ratings" should be viewed probabilistically. So it's not that Yao is a +6 and Battier is a +4, but more like there's a very strong chance Yao is somewhere between +4.5 and +7.5, and there's a very strong chance that Battier is somewhere +3 and +5.5 (based on the standard errors). What I really find interesting about it is what suggests about the player's defense. Defense is a hard thing to capture with stats, but with enough data (and this is 6 seasons worth), adjusted +/- can show some interesting things (like how awesome Chuck Hayes is on that end, and how Yao is likely much better on the defensive end that most give him credit for).
