Wow, The Basketball Public Has Bailed Early On Oden

As previously mentioned, the Houston series was disappointing for Oden, no matter how you spin it. When I sit back now and look at his regular season, it's clear that all he needs to do is learn how to limit his fouls and stay in the game. Things positive that jump out at me:

1) He's an elite rebounder, right now.
2) He's the best offensive rebounding center in the NBA, right now.
3) He is an extremely efficient scorer and is a plus in PER when on the court.
4) He is one of the 5 most physically imposing players in the league, right now.
5) His offensive game is not as limited as I gave him credit for last season. While he isn't ready to hit 15' jumpers from the field, he will be much better on his jump hooks with some added elevation this season (assuming he has more lift this year).

The only real negatives for me:

1) The fouls. Natch, the silly fouls. Just stop putting a hand on the opponent's waist when he is shooting or driving. Meet him at the rim or give up a few points now and then.
2) The Houston series. I'm still not quite sure what happened to him there, but he was a complete non-factor. The bright spot on this is that playing center seems to be more of an art than any position outside of PG. I remember Olajuwan dominating Shaq in the early '90s, and Hakeem came into the league a very unpolished player. After years of practice, he became one of the greatest all-around centers in history.
3) I know this is a subjective negative, but Oden seemed at times to be very down on himself. Whether this is because the media was lying, or my eyes were deceiving me at times while watching games, but at times Oden's body language seemed a bit detached from the game. In other words, he just seemed aloof to what was going on around him at times. As the season progressed, this was less noticeable to me, and even in the Houston series, it seemed to me that Oden was pressing more than him not caring.

So, in other words, there is hope to be seen in the results from last season.

 

how dare you disagree with me!

If I disagree with you...It is because you are wrong

 

1) I really don't know. I was thinking about this very issue, and I came to the decision that it can't be worse than last year. A lot comes down to keeping guards out of the paint. This is why I am such a proponent of Bayless. Last year, he seemed the only PG that was having any luck keeping in front of his man, although he had bad issues trying to help others. Batum and Webster need to concentrate on closing off lanes if nothing else, then just to help Oden.

2) I think you nailed it with the D and howard. Oden plays very tight D for a big man, and also is always bodying for rebounds. He also switches nonstop with LMA for the other big, or more often with Blake... when a guard breaks through. This makes oden very exploitable from an opponent wanting to draw fouls.

 

DaRizzle, I would love to lay down an Oden v Bynum bet of some kind this year. I know that Bynum is better at the moment, so the bet would be regarding the second half of the season. If you want to come up with some parameters, let me know. Sig? Avatar? up to you, but the idea would be better player over 2nd half of season. But we have to base it on something concrete.

 

Its on like Donkey Kong...you think of some stuff...ill do the same

 

So...you'll be posting a picture of Dwight Howard? Whatever floats your boat.

 

Przybilla.

 

I wondered about those dates - then I remembered: Bynum takes a nice rest every season between those months.

Perhaps you need a reminder of Bynum's performance this June.

 

Oh so future improvement applies to Oden but not Bynum....gotcha

 

I'm about to propose something that will hopefully please you.

I propose that the winner gets to steal the others sig if they want, and force any sig they decide on. That way, if I win, your sig will live on. If I lose, your sig will live on.

Duration: through the playoffs and until day one of the following preseason.

What: PER over the second half of the season. Both players must average 20+ mpg and play in 31 of the final 41 games. If either player does not match these criteria the bet is off. If PER is within 1.00 we will call it a tie and roll the bet over till the next season.

Is this good with you?

If you would rather lay $50 on it, that's cool too, but I would prefer something like mentioned above.

 

Offense isn't everything. That's why there will always be the Wilt v. Russell debates. How are you going to quantify Oden's superior defensive impact on the game compaired to Bynum?

 

as I said in the post above yours, PER is designed to take O and D into account.

 

Check. I didn't see that. I'll be rooting for you (and Greg).

 

Great article. Thanks for posting the link.

This was the best part:

"The public generally refuses to recognize the importance of rebounding in the game of basketball. I think (just a hunch) that people mistakenly assume rebounding is easy, or they assume that if a player is tall he should rebound, or they subsconsiouscly discount the value of rebounds because they assume that if the player who grabbed the rebound didn't get it someone else would have -- all mistaken impressions. Rebounding is and always has been a key to winning in basketball. Bill Russell proved that conclusively in the 1960s, and intensive research and analysis since then examining how wins are produced in the NBA has only confirmed it."

This is oh so true. I've been playing, coaching and watching basketball for over 40 years, and cannot stress enough the importance of rebounding. Yet, the general public doesn't value rebounding. When was the last time somebody made the Sports Center play of the night for getting a rebound? But, there is a huge correlation between rebounding and winning - at all levels. Great rebounding can make up for so many other deficiencies - poor shooting, weak defense, etc. Rebounds = possessions. If you have substantially more rebounds than your opponent, you have a much greater chance of winning. Remember the year the Blazers won 21 games and had the worst record in the league? It's no coincidence that they also finished last in the league in rebounding that season.

And, come the post season, when the pace slows down resulting in fewer possessions per game, every possession (and, therefore rebounding advantage), becomes even more important. Some people think that Oden must become a dominant low post scorer in order for the Blazers to win a championship. I disagree. Improved scoring would help, but his rebounding and defense will be the keys It's a lot easier to find capable scorers than great rebounders (and great defenders). If Oden can continue to rebound at the same rate he did last year, as his minutes go up, the Blazers will surround him with enough scorers to win multiple titles.

BNM

 

Yup. If I had a choice between a young Rick Smitts or a young Dikembe Mutombo for this team, I'd definitely take Deke.

 

I still want to do the bet but sorry, I dont like what you proposed. Id rather deal with the real stats rather than PER...Maybe something like we take PPG, RPG, BPG, FG%, FT%...whicher player has 3 or more categories won at the end of the regular season wins the bet. Just throwing out ideas