According to Courtside, Nate has said that he plans on a ten man rotation. The rotation would include Miller, Blake, Roy, Rudy, Batum, Webster, LMA, Outlaw, Oden and Przybilla. Regardless of who he decides will be starters, these are the players that Nate is currently planning on giving consistent minutes. But, as time goes on and the season progresses, I expect this rotation to become more and more lopsided in favor of certain players, and eventually some may even find themselves on the outside of the rotation. I could see Nate slowly moving more towards a nine man rotation and even eight when the team is really gearing up for the playoffs. Very few teams are able to run a 10 man rotation over a long period of time because it often results in fewer minutes for everyone, and the more talented and deserving players feel they are getting screwed. So as we analyze which play will be squeezed out over the course of the season, I want to start by ordering these ten players in two ways. 1) most to least talented today. 2) most to least expected talent. As Nate decides who to play, he will not only be deciding based on who is best at the moment, but also which players he sees as keys to the future of the Blazers. You may agree or disagree with my ordering, but this is how I see those two lists. 1) most to least talented today Roy LMA Miller Oden Rudy Przybilla Batum Outlaw Blake Webster 2) most to least expected talent So this is ordering the players based on where I think their talent would be in a year or two. Roy Oden LMA Batum Rudy Miller Webster Outlaw Przybilla Blake When I look at those two lists, I notice that Blake is one of our lesser talented players at the moment without much of an upside. Blake is very worthy of playing BU PG and could be a very good BU PG. But the problem becomes that the minutes that are available may force Nate to try to find more talented (current or expected) players more minutes, and the question is, where do those minutes come from. This will not apply to the very start of the season, but I think as time progresses, we will see more and more of Blakes minutes being reduced. Here's why. When Nate is looking for a good distributor, he will go with Miller. But when he is looking for the things that Blake is best at like shooting, I think he will start to opt for Rudy. If Nate is to play Roy at SG for 35mpg which should be guaranteed, then that only leaves 13mpg for Rudy as BU SG. And Batum and Webster both have height and length that rudy does not have making SF a difficult position for Rudy. Also, Batum and Webster are both still young with a lot of upside, so taking their minutes will also cause problems and potentially stunt a future major contributor. But at PG, Rudy can already shoot the ball and spread the floor incredibly well, and between he and Roy, they should be able to pull stints without a true PG. When a true PG is needed, in comes Miller. Blake is just in a position where he is one of the lesser talented players at the moment with little future value. It will be more important to keep other players happy and more likely to produce wins to play other players. I say the big squeeze will happen to Blake.
(Putting on my best "Merlin" imitation) Blake has the advantage that he has little competition for the back-up PG slot. Bayless isn't ready and Rudy is not even remotely a PG. Pryz will get minutes until Oden turns into a an iron man that never fouls anybody. Rudy will feel squeezed, because he thinks he deserves 30+ minutes a night. Unless Webster has undergone a huge (you might even say magical) transformation, he will be the first one pushed out of the lifeboat.
You are right that Blake is the only "PG" aside from Bayless who most likely will remain in the shadows. However, Rudy is as good as Blake on D, at shooting, and better at going to the hole and perhaps even getting deep assists. Did you see some of the lob ally-oops he handed out in Europe. On the Blazers, there are certain squads that really don't need Blake as "PG" more than just another quality player. Roy, for stints including in the 4th Q, plays PG better than any PG on our team (at least prior to Miller). I think that Rudy will be able to find minutes by squeezing Blake. I agree that the Center spot is solid with Oden -> Joel. LMA is much better than Outlaw and will take the minutes he needs. At SF, Batum and Webster will be fighting it out but I think there should be enough minutes for both of them.
Nate said the same thing last year, and the year before. It is said to calm the players' fears. He always ends up with 8 guys getting minutes, 2 guys who get yanked a lot getting 6-12 minutes each,and 2 guys who get PT only if someone is injured. 1) most to least talented today Roy LMA Przybilla Outlaw Rudy Blake Oden Batum Miller Howard Webster Bayless 2) most to least expected talent So this is ordering the players based on where I think their talent would be in a year or two. LMA Roy Outlaw Rudy Przybilla Blake Oden Batum Webster Bayless Miller Howard
Not at all what I would have said a year ago, but that's the trend I see so far with Steve and Greg. 5 years from now, different story.
I generally agree. I still see Blake getting at least 20 a night as the team goes small with Miller/Rudy and Roy playing a lot of 3. I think Nate probably considered Batum his weak and most expendable link in the starting unit last year and in a 3 guard lineup gives him something he can more trust. I doubt Martell ever starts for the Blazers again, and the 10 man rotation is nothing new. He did the same thing last year. Martell and Travis feel the pinch this year.
