Wow, The Basketball Public Has Bailed Early On Oden

I'm glad. Let them forget all about Oden ... until he plays their team.

 

B-N-M, I couldn't agree more. The first thing I thought of reading that article is back in the Drexler...Buck Williams days when we were the best rebounding team in the league. If the scoring had been as low as it is now, it would have been an even bigger advantage. Oden does not have to be an offensive force if he anchors the defense, blocks out, and cleans the boards. But I still think he will be an offensive force in certain situations even if used sparingly due to our plethora of other offensive options. I still expect big things from the big man. But hey, I'm a Blazers optimist.

 

I also think he'll become solid offensively once he fully recovers from his microfracture surgery and adjusts to the speed of the NBA game. I don't think he will dominate offensively against all opponents, but against teams that lack big strong centers to match his size and strength, he will simply overpower them. His offensive rebounding will also be a big plus and will add a few PPG to his scoring average. I wouldn't be surprised to see him eventually break the 20 PPG barrier, but he will never be in the running for a league scoring title.

Still, even if he only averages in the high teens in scoring, that, combined with the rebounding and defense, will make him one of the most valuable big men in the league.

BNM

 

PER is a real stat (actually a combination of several real stats). It's not perfect, however (no composite stat is). It heavily favors offense over defense (because offensive contributions are more easily quantified in individual stats).

I'd hesitate to use raw stats (PPG, RPG, etc.) due to pace. Players on teams that play at a faster pace simple have more opportunities to rack up impressive individual stats. The Blazers were dead last in the league in pace last year. So, that hurts their players in terms of individual stats. The Lakers were 5th in pace last season. So, Bynum benefits from the fact that his team gets about 8 more possessions per game than the Blazers. That's 8 more opportunities to score, get a rebound, etc. per game. Of course, PER is pace adjusted, but as noted it has other flaws. So, how about pace adjusted PPG, RPG (or TRB%) and BPG combined with raw FG% and FT%.

Even then, I'm not so sure FT% is as important in big men as their ability to get to the line. I'd rather have a big man who gets to the line 500 times and hits 70% of his FTs than one who gets to the line 200 times and hits 75%. In addition to the fact that player A made 200 more FT than player B, he is also putting a lot more pressure on the defense and getting his opponents in foul trouble. So, how about total FT made? Oden and Bynum were actually pretty close in FT made last season. Bynum made 152 FT in 1446 minutes played and Oden made 144 FT in 1314 minutes played. That works out to 3.9 FTM/36 for Oden and 3.8 FTM/36 for Bynum.

Since both players have seen their PT limited due to injuries over the past two seasons, there should also be a provisions for a minimum number of games and minutes played. Or you could simply add categories for total PTS, total REB, total BLKS, etc. This would penalize the player who can't stay on the court for whatever reason and would reward the player who is out there contributing to his team's success on a nightly basis.

So, you could go with the following categories:

Pace Adjusted PPG
TRB% (or Pace Adjusted RPG)
Pace Adjusted BPG
FG%
Total FT Made
Total PTS
Total REB
Total BLKs

This gives you 8 categories. So, the bet could end in a tie. In that case, I'd recommend PER as the tie breaker.

BNM

 

I'm down with BNM's suggestion. Do we have a bet?

 

PER really doesn't factor in D much at all. Just steals and blocks. Unfortunately, there really aren't many good ways to quantify defense with numbers, because so much of it doesn't show up in a box score.

He didn't even have a better FG% than Oden this year. What makes you think next will be different?
08-09 FG%
Oden: .524
Bynum: .457

 

So, DaRizzle wants to ignore the posted article which used statistics, and an inline article that used statistics, and makes several posts saying the articles are wrong, because HE THINKS SO. At least he's done a good job of baiting!

 

Obviously you are not aware of "The most interesting man in the world"
"If he disagrees with you, it is because you are wrong" is one of his abilities according to the commercial



...lighten up Francis (or are you unaware of that one too)

 

I may be wrong but Oden was given allstar praise NBA hall of famer type words, before he got out of high school! Not sure Bynum got that kind of press. Oden was a once in a decade center, don't know Bynum was considered that way. I may be wrong!

Just like all of us Blazer fans remember GO walking out downtown and feeling our team had been saved...... the nation might have viewed him the same way!!!

Than the massive crash!!!!!! He's hurt for the whole rookie year...... there's no Oden/Durant showdown, and will GO ever come back to the franchise ruling center everyone thought he'd be?

So here all basketball fans sit today wondering...... is GO gonna be, or is he an already has been? This is the year!!!

 

...and we all know that EVERY highly touted recruit lives up to expectations like Kwame Brown, and no 2nd round picks like Micheal Redd ever make an all star team....right?

 

True but Oden was considered a can't miss first pick, no brainer must take at all cost player! Agree?

 

I agree with your general point. However, Kwame wasn't considered a highly touted can't miss pick. In fact, Jordan taking him 1st in that draft was considered a big reach and a real head scratcher (most mocks has Kwame going around 6th). That draft was top heavy with young bigs, and Chandler, Curry and even Gasol were all more highly regarded and ranked higher heading into the draft than the relatively unknown Kwame Brown. Jordan gambled and lost. No surprise there.

BNM

 

Wrong. You are looking at playoff stats. You are ultimately still correct however negligibly

Oden: .564
Bynum .560

 

Come on DaRizzle, tell me we have a deal as per the suggested criteria. It seems unbiased and fair to both players.

 

I want ElCaps opinion on it...hes my homey

 

Good catch. I didn't realize that they were still showing playoff stats first, which seems odd to me. Although I guess technically they are the most recent stats, I just didn't expect it.

 

that always pisses me off too

 

From the Milwaukee Bucks Diary? The Bucks might as well be the D-League for the rest of the league, since what they primarily do is develope talent and have it leave to somewhere else to play. Maybe instead of bitching about our players, that guy should be bitching about his management team that keeps that team struggling every year with it's wonderful decisions.

 

I think BNM's stats are alright. I dont like Rebound% stats, but pace adjusted rebounds makes sense. I also think Assists should be included, an undervalued stat for a center IMO. Turnovers could also be included although that might just penalize whoever is getting more touches/PT