Wow, The Basketball Public Has Bailed Early On Oden

TRB% is really THE best way to determine who is the best rebounder. It's really simple to calculate. It's a straight percentage of available rebounds. If there are 50 missed shots while a player is in the game and he grabs 10 rebounds, his TRB% is 20%. If another player only grabs 5 rebounds of 50 missed shots, his TRB% is 10% - and he's exactly half the rebounder of the first player.

Because it is based on the number of available rebounds, it automatically adjusts for factors such as pace, minutes played, etc. Of course, you could also just use pace adjusted RPG, but that will favor the player who gets the most minutes - which makes it somewhat redundant with total REB.

BNM

 

K...I say both of those stats be included (pace adjusted reb) and still use PER as a tie breaker

 

The players reward for playing well...(to either God's or my benefit)

 

You could use something like pace adjusted TO/36, but then this starts to get rather complicated. And if player B averages 0.1 more pace adjusted TO/36 than player A, is that really significant. At some point, we're starting to split hairs.

Neither Bynum nor Oden are valued for their passing or ballhandling skills. While I agree those things are important in the big picture, for the sake of this "bet" I think the proposed scoring, rebounding, shooting and blocks stats are sufficient for determining a winner.

BNM

 

Not necessarily - it's the reward for playing better than the alternative.

Besides, we are already rewarding the player who plays the most by including total FTM, total PTS, total REB and total BLK. That was the point of including those stats - to reward the player who is actually on the court making the biggest contribution.

BNM

 

Im going to go ahead and disagree with you there. TRB% penalizes good rebounders who have other good rebounders on the court at the same time. It also helps players that play in spurts or that get into foul trouble.

I also think splitting hairs here is a little silly since I think Oden is going to dominate any rebounding category between the two, but hey, I am a champion of fairness.


I agree that turnovers are unecessary, but I would still push for assists to be included. Again, I think its an oft overlooked stat for centers, and off the top of my head, I cant even tell you which player it benefits.

 

You could make the exact same argument about pace adjusted REB/36. So, pick one, TRB%, pace adjusted REB/G, whatever. Doesn't matter to me. It's not my bet. A great rebounder is a great rebounder. The better rebounder will prevail no matter what metric you choose.

So, do you want to include pace adjusted AST/G, or total assists? Any assist stat favors Bynum (based on last year's stats). I'm not sure if that is because Bynum is a better passer than Oden, or becuase he plays in the Triangle offense where the center has more opportunities to get assists. Neither player is a great passer, and neither will get a significant number of assists. I know you want to include assists, but it really is an insignificant part of both players' games. If you want to be comprehensive, you should also include steals. Neither player will get a a significant number of steals, but a steal is a change of possession, and therefore as important as an assist in my book. But, since stealing the ball isn't a significant part of either player's game, I don't think including them is relevant. Lets not forget, we are trying to determine which young center has the better season. Scoring, rebounding and blocking shots are all MUCH more relevant to their roles and the contributions they make to their teams. If you do include "lesser contributions, I suggest you weight them. Afterall, which is a more signficant contribution from the center position, a player who gets 100 more rebounds, or one who gets 10 more assists?

BNM

 

Hey God, we'll just wait until ElCap and BNM iron out our bet for us

 

Look at my post on "Oden's Rookie Offensive Prowess" on Blazersedge:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/9/23/1052433/odens-rookie-offensive-prowess

On offense, what you want out of a center is offensive rebounds and accurate shooting. If you use the metrics of offensive rebounding percentage and true shooting percentage, Oden's rookie year compares well with Hakeem, Ewing, Olajuwon, and Shaq, the four greatest centers of the last 25 years (average of 11 all-NBA teams each).

He also rates better than the best of his peers, Dwight Howard and Yao Ming, on these same two factors.

Yes, and Oden did this while recovering from microfracture surgery, trying to learn the speed of the NBA game after a year off from bball, never being in shape, and suffering two injuries during the year.

We all know he needs to cut down on fouls so he can keep in the game. This is the major source of Oden disgruntlement. I believe he will improve in this aspect of his game this year.

So we all need to stop overly criticizing him, and let him play and improve this year. I personally think he'll break out by playing almost 30 minutes a game and improving his already high per minute effectiveness, and win most improved player this year.

Go Oden, go Blazers!!

 

I like my original proposal. It measures the most significant contributions from both players and rewards the player that is most able to stay on the floor and contribute to his team's success. Anything beyond that is superfluous (what's next, 3-point shooting?). It's also simple and uncomplicated.

BNM

 

you are going to have to direct all your proposals to my agent, Mr. ElCap15

 

If you use last year's stats, and my recommended criteria, Bynum wins easily (6 -2, or 5 - 3 depending on if you use TRB% or pace adjusted RPG). He also wins the PER tie breaker 20.0 to 18.1.

Pace Adjusted PPG
Bynum - 14.3
Oden - 9.7

TRB% (or Pace Adjusted RPG)
Bynum - 15.7% (8.0)
Oden - 20.0% (7.6)

Pace Adjusted BPG
Bynum - 1.8
Oden - 1.2

FG%
Bynum - 0.560
Oden - 0.564

Total FT Made
Bynum - 151
Oden - 144

Total PTS
Bynum - 714
Oden - 540

Total REB
Bynum - 398
Oden - 424

Total BLKs
Bynum - 90
Oden - 69

Bynum easily wins the scoring categories. Rebounding is closer, but generally favors Oden. FG% and total FT made are very close. Both players were limited due to injury issues. Oden played in more games, but Bynum actually played more minutes (and, of course, more MPG). Obviously, Oden needs to improve in several areas, and cut down on the fouls enough to stay in the game longer, if he hopes to pass Bynum this year.

I honestly hope both players are healthy, play in all 82 games and show everyone what they are capable of doing. I've always been a huge fan of the big man and I find nothing more fascinating than an epic battle between two giants (Kareem and Wilt comes to mind in the '72 WC Finals). These are two young bigs with tremendous potential. They are traditional centers that bang and dominate with their size, not utra soft eurofloppers. I look forward to a decade, or more, of epic battles between the two. I hope they can both be healthy enough to live up to their incredible potential.

BNM

 

Thanks for affirming how awesom Bynum is...God I love that guy

 

Dwight Howard?

 

Considering it was Bynum's fourth year and Oden's first it isn't much of a surprise Bynum produced better numbers.

In three more years this comparison will be very different.

 

Maybe, maybe not. Bynum was drafted at 17 and was an 18 yr old rookie. Oden played his first season at 20-21 yrs old.

 

That joke was already used...sorry

 

IMO, it shouldn't be just a matter of "who wins the most categories".

There should be some sort of normalization scheme so that if player A dominates in one category, and splits the other categories by close margins (and slightly losing in the overall category count), the player A should be considered the better player.

 

Too complicated. This is just a simple bet.

BNM