Link A few notables: Andrea Bargnani 2009-10 Projected PER: 13.80 League Average Comparison: -1.20 2008-09 PER: 14.65 Chris Bosh 2009-10 Projected PER: 22.80 League Average Comparison: +7.80 2008-09 PER: 22.18 Jose Calderon 2009-10 Projected PER: 18.89 League Average Comparison: +3.89 2008-09 PER: 18.80 Amir Johnson 2009-10 Projected PER: 16.09 League Average Comparison: +1.09 2008-09 PER: 13.57 Hedo Turkoglu 2009-10 Projected PER: 13.56 League Average Comparison: -1.44 2008-09 PER: 14.82 Let's hope he's not right, or Bryan Colangelo just committed $103 million to two significantly below average players. Seriously, PER isn't a perfect stat to begin with, but I have no idea how he derives these projections. He has Bosh and Calderon both up a fraction of a point. That's believable. But why does he have Bargnani regressing after the way he played after the All-Star break last season? Hedo may seem low (he is), but he's getting older and the projection isn't down that far from last season. Still, I disagree. And why is he so high on Amir Johnson? I also checked his projections on the Blazers. Other than two second year players (Oden and Batum), he has everyone else, including Roy and Aldridge down. Does he believe they've really peaked at 23 - 24 years of age and are already on the down slide? In any case, what do you think of his projections. Any you agree with, or strongly disagree with? How about posting your own PER projections? See if you can beat Hollinger at his own game. I'll go first: Bargnani: 15.4 - the former No. 1 overall pick finally becomes an average NBA contributor. Is it enough to justify his $50 million extension? Not sure, but at least it's a step in the right direction. Bosh: 23.2 - Contract year - 'nuff said. Calderon: 17.5 - I think his production will be down with Hedo helping distribute the ball. Hedo: 15.7 - come on, you don't spend $53 million for below average production (do you?). I think Toronto's high scoring and fast pace will cause a bump in Hedo's PER - not the decline Hollinger predicts (at least not yet). BNM
Honestly, I'd have to trust your judgment more on this topic because you're much more knowledgeable about saber I've tried a couple times to fully understand PER, what it measures and how it comes to measure it, and just haven't been able to get it. Hollinger doesn't even divulge his formula, does he?
do u remember when hollinger had the raps ranked in his top five a few years ago in his power rankings when they had that 47 win team and we all know they had major deficiencies like an absence of a second scorer? these statistical junkies have never been able to measure mental toughness, team chemistry, toughness and almost every intangible i can think of.
Yes, Hollinger's PER formula has been public for years. You can find it at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Efficiency_Rating For the sake of this discussion, consider this simplified scale: Hollinger has set up PER so that the league average, every season, is 15.00, which produces sort of a handy reference guide: Code: *A Year For the Ages: 35.0 *Runaway MVP Candidate: 30.0 *Strong MVP Candidate: 27.5 *Weak MVP Candidate: 25.0 *Bona fide All-Star: 22.5 *Borderline All-Star: 20.0 *Solid 2nd option: 18.0 *3rd Banana: 16.5 *Pretty good player: 15.0 *In the rotation: 13.0 *Scrounging for minutes: 11.0 *Definitely renting: 9.0 *On next plane to Yakima: 5.0 The biggest problem with PER is it favors offense over defense. It includes stats for steals and blocks, but does not consider other defensive aspects. The formula can also favor players who play limited minutes against weak opponents. So, comparing PERs for a player who starts and averages 30+ MPG to a bench player who averages 10 MPG isn't entirely valid. It's best used to compare player who play similar roles and similar minutes. Again, it's not perfect, but it's a good starting point to compare the value of a player's total contribution. With that in mind, and using the table above as a guide, what do you think of Hollinger's 2009-10 projections for the Raptors players? BNM
I doubt that Bargnani and Hedo are both going to regress as a result of playing together. Bargs showed a lot of improvement from a bad sophomore year to a good junior year--I suspect that trend will continue, especially since Hedo is unselfish (and because we have little scoring from the back court). I suspect we'll see him around 17/7, Hedo at 18/5/5, and Bosh at 22/10. Johnson's impact will be minimal. Calderon will definitely be better as he played most of last season with an injury that severely limited his lateral movement, something like 14/10, I suppose.
