Sure, he's improved. He's most likely no longer a complete bust. But now the question remains. Is he just going to be a serviceable offensive force with a dominating defensive presence? Or can he still be that guy everyone thought he was coming out of high school? I know he's not ever going to put up Bill Russell/Olajuwon stats anytime soon. But do you still think he has what it takes to at least challenge Dwight as the top center in the league? I'm gonna take a guess at his career highs @ 22 / 14 / 4 assists / 3 blks If Aldridge ever faces a major injury for an extended period of time, that point total could raise as well. So color me optimistic.
Consider yourself so colored. First of all Oden was never a complete bust ... his PER is way to high to be a bust, but to answer your question, he isn't a once in a generation center either, best case scenario is probably Dwight Howard-lite, something in the neighborhood of 18 points, 12 boards and maybe 2.5-3 blocks in his prime. FWIW, a 15pts/11 boards/2.5 blocks and 20+ PER Oden is probably plenty for this team to seriously contend.
I think it's far too early to say that. Playing his rookie season while clearly limited by his recovery, he put up a PER in shouting distance of All-Star caliber. His minutes played weren't good, but for reasons that seem to be correctable. I consider his median expectation to be similar to Dwight Howard: he doesn't develop his offensive game that much, but scores purely by dint of size and athleticism, and he adds dominating rebounding (which he already showed his rookie season) and dominating defense. I think his best case scenario is Dwight Howard with a very effective post-up game. Roughly, Tim Duncan level value.
I think so. Brian Grant made a great point tonight on courtside. People were too quick to jump off his ship last year. He has it in himself just by the few plays I have seen to be something special. I believe in him big time. But I think he is going to do most of his damage defensively. If he averages a career high of 22 points per game, that is a lot more than I would ever anticipate him averaging. Mainly because on this team, he doesn't need to score. Unless Roy or Aldridge goes down with injury or the two of them are disqualified due to foul trouble. There are so many scorers on this team. What the team needs is for him to be a dominant force defensively. If he does that than, I think he can and will make a name for himself as a once in a generation center. The only difference he will be doing it with his defense rather an offense. Kind of like Russell. What will really determine this though is championships.
Offensively, I just don't see it. Duncan is one of the best face-up posts in NBA history. I think you're undervaluing Duncan and setting too high of an expectation for Oden. That said, we can dream, right?
Well, as skilled as Duncan was (and still is), on his very best day he was never as strong as Oden is right now. Minstrel didn't say he'd have the same skills as Duncan, just that it's possible he could be that caliber of talent. And really is that so far off? Personally, I think at the low end he's an Alonzo Mourning-type center. Good offensively, fantastic defensively. On the high end? Yeah, I can see Duncan. Somebody has to be the next Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan, Garnett or Robinson. Right now it's Dwight and a bunch of quality-but-not-dominant big men like Pau and Bosh and (probably pretty soon if not already) Aldridge. Is there a better candidate right now in the league to join that really elite status besides Howard? I can't think of one. I'm not saying he WILL get there. Just that it's really exceptional to find somebody with the tools to even consider getting there, and I think Oden might have those tools.
The Alonzo comparison is a good one. The good news is Greg is more athletic than Alonzo. Greg is more athletic than what Patrick Ewing was.
I think that comparing Oden to Tim Duncan, even in a "best-case" scenario, is a bit ambitious at this point and probably isn't fair to Greg.
CAN ODEN MAKE IT THROUGH A SEASON WITH GOOD PLAY FOR BEFORE WE MENTION "ALL TIME CENTERS" ARE U KIDDING ME????
I still think the potential to be an all-time great is there. He's so young. It's like people think he's 25 or something.
Don't forget that Oden also has a great ability to learn on the go. He might not have a huge offensive arsenal at the moment, but remember that he learned to play with his left hand in college. And recently he's acquired a solid jumpshot and improved his free throw shooting within the summer. Sure he seemed really robotic and awkward in his first playing season, but based on merely a half-season we've seen him play, we can not say for sure that he won't be able to pick up things with ease in time. It takes time and experience for centers to adjust to the NBA. Something Oden hasn't had much of so far in his young career due to fouls and injuries. Fouls is something that will magically go away, trust me. And I'd rather not worry about injuries even if they are a real factor. Honestly, I see nothing about Howard that Oden can't do better or has definite potential to do better. Edit - lol, 'scuse the typo in the title.
That's right, I was careful in my wording...I wasn't saying Oden would play like Duncan, but that (in his best case scenario) he would approximate Duncan's overall value, combining offense, defense and rebounding. I don't think (to answer PapaG's explicit response to mook and implicit response to me) that that's an unfair or unreasonable top-end comparison. Oden was nearly universally considered by scouts to be one of the best center prospects ever. I haven't seen any evidence, yet, that they were wrong. His rookie season wasn't disappointing to me, in context (being limited athletically as he recovered from surgery, having been over a year away from competitive basketball, not having had a chance to train properly in the off-season). I would never say any prospect's expected level is a top-tier Hall of Famer like Duncan. But his best case? Sure. Oden has freakish athleticism for his huge frame, he used it effectively in college and showed glimpses of it in his rookie season despite the aforementioned limitations. He may never develop his offensive game further, but I think there's plenty of reason to believe he can improve his footwork and post moves.
