I think Oden could very well end up being similar to Dwight Howard of this past year. As a once in a generation center? Doubtful, but as Minstrel said, to early to tell.
Dint of size? Dang! Minstrel droppin some knowledge! I had to google that. I think he can achieve Dwight Howard's level of offensive prowess...easily. If he can develop a consistent face up shot and actually get that ugly hook to develop some touch, he could put up 20/12 with no problem.
Same Thread, Different Day.... Oden WILL be a once-in-a-generation REBOUNDER. Overall center? He won't put up gaudy offensive numbers like some other centers have so people will be disappointed in him, which of course is stupid.
another factor is any center's offensive numbers would take a hit if they were surrounded by capable scorers like Greg is... less opportunities = less numbers for every player. To the OP... I don't see why not. If he's really got his legs/agility back then he's one of the most impressive physical specimens in the league. STOMP
All Oden needs to be is an offensive threat. Some games able to score 30 points if they try to play him "straight up". All we need is for other teams knowingly having to pre for Oden. Having him able to score, but his main focus is on the defensive end and offensive put backs. If other teams play us straight up, then have Oden punish them down low. But I would be considering him a success if he averages 15-12-3 (blocks) a game.
I think Oden will be a better offensive player than Russell. Russell's career high scoring average was 18.9 PPG and he averaged 15.1 PPG for his career. I think Oden has the potential to top both of those, or at least come close. The real difference will be in FG%. Russell had a career FG% of 0.440, with a high of 0.467. Oden as a rookie, shot 0.564 from the field. Like Russell, Oden will be the center on a team full of other great players. So, he will likely never be the #1 scoring option on offense. Like Russell, his main contributions will be on defense and rebounding the ball. Of course, he won't average as many RPG as Russell did. No one averages 22 - 24 RG these days. The pace is slower and the shooting percentages much higher. So, that means there are a lot fewer missed shots to rebound. It's too bad TRB% is not available for the time when Russell played. That would have been a great way to compare rebounding between these two players whose careers are separated by 50 years. Russell led the league in RPG five times and was top 3 in RPG 13 times. If Oden can come close to matching that, we'll call the rebounding a draw. If not, advantage Russell. In terms of defense, I think Oden will be a great defender, but Russell is the greatest of all time. He is the all-time career leader in defensive win shares and led the league in this category 11 times (including 10 straight seasons). And, then there's the rings. Russell has 11, and five finals MVPs. As much as I'd love to see it, I don't think Oden (or anyone) will come close to matching that. Oden won't be Bill Russell. He will be Greg Oden. He will play a similar role. I think his offense will be a little better than Russell's (based on higher shooting percentages). His rebounding will be similar (after accounting for differences in pace and FG%), perhaps not quite as good as Russell's. Oden will be a great defender for his generation, but not an all-time great (or THE all-time great), like Russell. I do think Oden will be a vital part of multiple championships, but not nearly as many as Russell (keep in mind there were only 8 or 9 other teams in the league when Russell played, not 29). If Oden ends up being a modern day, poor man's Bill Russell, I will be totally happy. While I think low post scoring is very important, but when it comes to big men, I value rebounding and defense even more. Oden will never lead the league in scoring, probably never crack the top 10, maybe not even lead his own team in scoring, but his contributions on defense and rebounding will justify taking him first over all in the 2007 NBA draft. BNM
Duncan is a two-time NBA MVP and 3-time Finals MVP. That's a pretty high ceiling for any player, let alone one who has had difficulties finding his groove. Duncan was the primary offensive threat and the offense ran through him in his best years. That's some pretty incredible value. I hope Oden gets there, but I think using Tim Duncan as a comparison is a reach at this point.
Keep in mind that Oden came back from micro-fracture knee surgery. The NBA game is a much faster pace than the college level, plus that type of injury take two years to fully recover from. I think this will be a good year to realistically rate Oden.
I'm well aware of how Oden has been impacted by his microfracture surgery. That said, I still find comparing his potential value to Tim Duncan, who is arguably the best PF in history, is a little unrealistic based on what we've seen of Oden at this point.
Oden isn't far off from being a very good center. His stats as a 21 yr old are only slightly behind the other good Blazer centers of the past. Walton first year 13ppg 12.6rpg 2.7bpg Bowie first year 10ppg 8.6 rpg 2.7bpg Sabonis first year 14ppg 8 rpg 1 bpg Oden first year 9ppg 7rpg 1bpg I predict much better this year from him.
I just want to see one healthy season where Oden is effective ... all this "once in a generation center" stuff is as premature and meaningless as the talk about this team being the next Dynasty.
I don't know, but he might just lead the league in rebounding if he can stay on the court for 30 minutes!
As I said in that post, that's essentially the ceiling that the scouting community gave him. So far, I've seen no evidence that they were wrong. Despite being considerably limited, he put up an impressive PER as a rookie and showed glimpses of the difficulty defenders will have in handling him when he's got his athleticism back to go with his size.
Fantastic post BNM, simply fantastic repped. You and Minstrel have my position on Oden more the covered. Let me say it again. Oden will be a top 5 maybe top 3 Center this year and will likely be battling for best center in the league by the 2010/11 season. I expect a few DPOY's to go along with a few rings. Yes, Oden IS a once in a generation center when it comes to rebounding and defense and his offense will always be a what if he had gone to OKC and been the focus kind of question. His offense will be solid but I am hoping we never have to rely on it to a great degree. Again his numbers for this season 36 mins 15pts 12 rebounds (7 OFF 5 DEF) 2.25 blocks 2.5 assists 56% FG% and MIP and that is only the begining...
That's great. Meanwhile, comparing him to Tim Duncan as a "best-case" seems premature. Duncan carried the Spurs. That's how he impacted his team. Will Oden have the same impact on the Blazers? I have my doubts. I think he'll always need a Roy-type player around him, and I don't see multiple MVP awards in his future.
I am as optimistic about Oden as anyone, but the Duncan ceiling may be a bit too high. Duncan averaged a 25 PER for his career, 22.6 in his rookie season as a 21-year-old (<- weird since he did 4 years in college) and 27 at his peak.
