Raise expectations for Greg?

We have played a team with no inside presence. Let's hold off on raising expectations until he faces a better post defender, and a better defensive team.

He looks great so far though.

 

He's definitely better, but I agree that the 7 fouls in two games (52 minutes played) is as encouraging a sign as any of the other stats.

 

No. You cannot change the expectations on a player after every game.

 

Still only "pre-season". I am very anxious to see him during the "Regular Season"

 

I am anxious to see him against someone other than the Kings.

 

Not to be pedantic, but since Blake was starting and Oden was coming off the bench - what % of the time were they actually on the floor together?

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if Rudy "assisted" on more Oden baskets than Blake did.

 

my expectations for Greg have been pretty sky high since I first saw him play at OSU... I put him only behind Hakeem in most impressive young Bigs I've seen. Being huge, bright, athletic & coordinated is a solid combination of talents for a player to possess. While he's suffered a few injury setbacks since, none of these setbacks should impact his physical abilities longterm so my expectations are still what they were.

dude has a legitimate chance of being the greatest Blazer ever

STOMP

 

It's extremely encouraging for several reasons.

First, it shows significant progress. At the rate of 7 fouls in 52 minutes, Oden would foul out at about 44.5 minutes - if he played an entire game from start until he fouled out. Last season, for the entire season, he averaged 6.5 fouls/36 minutes. At that rate, he commits his 6th foul about 33.2 minutes into the game - in other words, he fouls out with almost 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. While the sample size is very small, his current PF/36 = 4.8 compared with PF/36 = 6.5 last season. That's significant improvement.

Second, these are replacement refs and they are calling a LOT more fouls in these preseason games than are typically called by real refs during NBA regular season games. So, in spite of the fact that the total number of fouls called per game is way up, Oden's fouls are down - doubly encouraging.

On a related note, in the first game Oden did not pick up his 3rd foul until almost half way through the 4th quarter and his 4th foul with less than a minute and a half left in the game. He was never in serious foul trouble, or in jeopardy of fouling out. And, I thought those last two fouls were questionable. The Blazers had a huge FT advantage in that game and it appeared the replacement refs were trying to even things out a bit late in the game. In any case, if Greg Oden can get halfway through the 4th quarter with only two fouls, that's progress.

Finally, Oden will never play all 48 minutes of a regulation game. We have the best back-up center in basketball. There is no reason for Oden to play an entire game without a break. So, at a rate of 7 PF in 52 minutes, if Joel gives Oden just a 2 minute break in the 1st half and another 2 minute break in the second half, the game will end before Oden commits his 6th foul. A more realistic scenario is that Joel plays at least 6 - 8 minutes per half and at a rate of 7 fouls per 52 minutes, Oden will rarely be in foul trouble - compared to last season when he was constantly battling foul trouble. Again, a significant improvement (based on the limited data).

BNM

 

One thing to keep in mind: Greg picked up two quick fouls in the first couple minutes of the game last night. Nate left him in, but would he do that during the regular season? Greg did a lot of his damage after those fouls. Something to ponder.

 

Limited sample size in meaningless games against a very weak opponent. I don't mean to be a downer. I am, and have always been, a HUGE Greg Oden supporter. I'm from Indiana originally, and followed Greg's career through high school and still remember vividly where I was and what I was doing when the Blazers won the 2007 NBA draft lottery. No doubt he's made great progress, but so far his competition has been one game where the best opposing big man was Spencer Hawes, and the Kings didn't even have Hawes in the second game.

My expectations have risen, especially after watching Greg in person on Tuesday. However, I don't want to get carried away - only to be "disappointed" later. So, I'm thinking of something like 1 point for every 2 minutes played and 1 rebound for every 3 minutes. So, if he averages 30 MPG, that comes out to 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. If he averages 32 MPG, that goes up to 16/10.7. Those numbers are very good, yet attainable. If he's somewhere in that ballpark, I will be thrilled and the Blazers will have a very good season.

BNM

 

I agree...I don't want to be a downer, I love Greg...of course not in THAT way...not that there's anything wrong with that...

Anyways, I was at Fan Fest and the King's game. one thing I did notice is that Greg still had trouble handling some interior passes that he received. The same issue he had last year where he couldn't catch the ball cleanly so it forced him to re-gather instead of going right up with the ball. And his little running hook is better, but some of them still look really ugly.

My point is, he is still very much a work in progress. All of these threads about raising expectations and All-Star game, etc. are driving me nuts. I am hoping for a modestly productive season that shows he is building on skills and has progressed. I will be very happy with that. Don't fall prey to the roller coaster of unrealistic expectations and irrational disappointment folks...remember it's a marathon not a sprint. We got to play em one game at a time. I'm just happy to be here, hope I can help the ball club...

 

This for sure!

 

Not to get all man-porn, but look at the size of his freaking guns. They're the size of Rudy's legs.

As for raising my expectations of him, I don't think that's possible. I think he's going to be far and away the best center in the game within the next two years.

 

Huh? I always thought Tim Duncan was a robotic clone.

 

Camby is a terrific talent, but he's a finesse player. I have a feeling it will be a flopathon with the goal to lawyerball Oden out of the game. We may see Camby switch on defense and defend LMA while Griffin plays Oden.

That being said, I'm interested to see these new look Clippers.

 

Pre-season is not summer league. It's very competitive, with the starters playing, and a big crowd in attendance. If you watched the highlights from last night, the action looked just as intense as it does during the regular season.

I don't blame Greg for the quality of the other team, either. I give him credit for showing up and being ready to play. The Kings may not be an elite team, but they are definitely an NBA team, and their players are not slouches.

The last two games have been real tests, and legitimate games, and Oden has fared very well, indeed. I can't wait to see him get even better as the season goes along.

 

In answer check my new Avatar and tag line.

 

This is the truth. Greg is showing a ton more promise this season then last year, but big men tend to take a good 4 years in the league to reach their potential. Greg is just entering his second.

There will come a time in a couple of years where these last two games against the Kings are considered to be sub par performances for him. At least that is what I am hoping for.