Semi-OT: Hollinger talks about Durant

It's not his body that's the problem on D, it's his head. Bruce Bowen wasn't a physical specimen, but still became a great defender. KD is the most lackadaisical defender on that team if you watch him on that end of the floor.

I think his ceiling isn't Kobe or LeBron, it's Melo at best. And he still has a long way to go to get there.

 

All I have to say is Durant is way way overrated. There no way we would be a playoff team last year or going forward with Zbo at PF, LMA at center and Durant at SF. Zbo alone would keep us out of the playoffs. Our team is much better now with Oden then having Durant. Just give it another year and if Oden stays healthy there won't even be a question about the Oden/Durant draft.

 

Why isn't this true of all good players on bad teams? Why is it the case that Durant is SO bad? (And why isn't it also true of all the starters on the OKC roster?)

 

Apparently Durant reads Hollinger:

Awww. I love the "whatever that is". I hope somebody can take him aside and explain, because it really isn't that complicated. I also love the "and my team as a whole". Don't worry Kevin, they're only doubting YOU.

 

The follow-up from the increasingly insufferable Henry Abbott. ("Memo to a young Baller"! "I feel your pain"! "Gag me with a spoon" Oh, wait, that last one was me. Although I do have to agree with an awful lot of what the article actually says.)

 

What is not really about it? In LeBron's rookie year - his defesive rating was 104 points per 100 possessions, he is now down to 99. Durant's rookie year was 110 and he is now down to 109. It is especially damning when you realize that the Thunder without Durant are respectable at 103...

LeBron was much better at defense from the minute he walked on the court.

 

Are you sure about that. Durant's body looks to me just like KG's early years - and KG is a fantastic defender.

Durant is just not a good one - and only time will tell if he will put the work/have the interest in becoming one...

 

Not to mention Tayshaun Prince or even Michael Cooper.

Right. He's more like Ralph Sampson or George Gervin.

 

People will always question it since Durant will probably average in the high 20's for points per game. Folks who treat NBA teams the same way they treat fantasy basketball teams will say if Portland added his points into a team with Roy and LMA they would score a ton.

Oden is better for the current incarnation of the team. Had Portland not gotten Roy and LMA the year prior, I am not sure if Oden would have been the best choice.

 

Really? To me it looks like his defensive PER is atrocious that season, which undercuts your previous point.

 

The problem I have with defensive PER is that it assumes that you are on the opponent in whatever position you are playing at all time - so if you switch to defend the pick and roll and the guy you switched from scores because your team-mate did not rotate properly - your defensive PER suffers. Defense in the NBA is even more of a team-game than offense, imho - and DRTG measures it a lot better - at least the team aspect of it.

Look at Durant's defensive PER of the last year - he seems to be pretty decent - especially when you consider his Net PER for the SF and PF positions - and yet, his team gives up a lot more points per possession when he is on the court. Something does not smell good for defensive PER in this situation - and the same is true for LeBron...

 

+/- numbers can also be very inaccurate.

LeBron James defends both forward positions terribly, I also see 7 players on the Cavs that year with a defensive rating of 104 or lower. Not sure his teammates were bad enough to support this idea.

 

I do not know what this means, honestly.

In his rookie year, with LeBron on the court, the Cavs gave up 3 points MORE per 100 possessions when he was NOT on the court - they were a better defensive team with him on the court - this year (Durant's 2nd) - the Thunder gave up 8 points LESS per 100 possessions when he was NOT on the court. They were a better defensive team with him NOT on the court.

That's all that matters, right there.

Does it matter if the opposing team scores more by it's forwards, centers or guards? All that matters is that when LeBron was on the court - usually against the other team's best players, the other team scored less than when he was not. The opposite is true for Durant - and that's the crux of the problem.

 

I don't know if you noticed but Durant's defensive PER is absolutely atrocious, I'm not sure that disproves my point at all. He's right up there as well with LeBron. Both of them sucked on D, but if we want to find out which was worse that's another issue I didn't really intend to comment on at first. You just made a an erroneous comment I wanted to correct.

Every player that got regular time in Oklahoma's rotation had a defensive rating of 108 or worse. If we're going by that figure, Durant's teammates didn't exactly help him either.

+/- is not always based on value but chemistry, which is why Hollinger doesn't immediately reiterate these findings. I've seen +/- figures say Rasheed Wallace is the tenth best player in the 2000s per minute. Or that Ronny Turiaf was more valuable per minute than Allstar X.

 

That makes sense - since Durant plays so much - they spend a lot of time on the court with him. Where the evidence is damning - is that when he is not on the court - their defensive acumen as a team is much better - where the opposite was the true for LeBron's team-mates when he was a rookie...

In other words - if Durant's team-mates were 3 points per 100 possessions worse with him off the court than with him on it (as LeBron's team-mates were) - I would overlook the difference in their DRTG and would attribute it to the team as a whole. As is it is not the case - I think it is pretty clear that LeBron, while maybe not a defensive stopper as a rookie - at least played acceptable defense for a rookie, while Durant in his 2nd year still looks like a disaster on defense.

 

Green and Durant play the most minutes on that young squad and Green is lacking just as much on D. They play at pretty much the same time which accounts for part of the problem.

I wasn't talking about LeBron as a rookie, he still sucked defensively his second year just not as much as Durant, maybe. Playing next to Green in that environment, who knows really.

 

Why does that discount the data? If we qualify it carefully by saying "Ronny Turiaf was more valuable to his team than Allstar X was to his team over period y", then what's the problem? (Are you assuming that "chemistry" is a randomly assigned gift from the heavens, or just an accidentally arising property of a group? If so, then it would bless equally every member of that group and not favor any particular individual.)

I think people who have a problem with +/- because it denigrates players like Durant, Iverson and the like just haven't played enough pickup basketball. Play with a guy like Durant, however great a person he might be, and it makes a lot of sense that he's not really helping you win, despite great talents in certain aspects of the game.

(Turiaf's value might be that he's the ONLY Warrior who actually plays defense. Rasheed's value I have no problem with - his "IQ" is off the charts, AND he has a history of working with younger players (just not older, Lithuanian players) to encourage them. And he genuinely doesn't give a shit about stats.)

 

You need to respond to his criticisms of defensive PER. Does Hollinger (who invented PER, right?) even acknowledge the existence of such a thing? Seriously, if a team played zone permanently, would it mean ANYTHING?

 

Again +/- measures how good squads fit together, not the talent or production that is produced by one player. So that is a nuance that has to be taken into account.

At no point was Turiaf better or more valuable than KG, who has to guard more important players and takes on a bigger responsibility. In no manner is Odom more important to the Lakers than Gasol, Hollinger himself discredits +/- in some instances.

 

Yeah that's right Hollinger didn't fully seem to accept +/-.

Well then, what does Defensive rating even mean? That's not exactly a precise stat either.