He's been struggling in the pre-season with his shot and I don't see it changing much until Yao or TMac return and create shots for him. This season will be all about adjusting for Ariza from being a role player casted into the spotlight. He said he's working on improving his dribbling skills to create for himself, but he's going to be a focal point for defenses this year with Yao and TMac out. If he stays healthy and continues to develop I can see him breaking out a year or two down the line, but I don't think it's realistic to expect it this season.
I agree, and I don't think the Rockets are expecting it this year either. They've been pretty consistent since they got him -- they like him at the MLE if he just continues to do what he did with the Lakers. If he can expand his game offensively, that's a bonus. A bonus they'd love to have given their team-wide lack of offense, but still a bonus. In the preseason thus far, Ariza's hot 3-point shooting from the playoffs last year looks to have carried over. He's shoot close to 50% on them. And they haven't just been spot ups either -- he's hit a good number of his own dribble from distance. The problem is when he tries to create shots of his dribble going towards the basket. He makes more decisions in those situations, and he's been a very soft finisher when he gets around the basket as well. He's been called for a number of traveling violations and offensive fouls. That's something I hope he can clean up. When the regular season games start, I expect the Rockets will ask less of him on offense and put more of the playmaking burden on Brooks and Lowry.