In a couple of years, the league will agree that Oden was the right choice. I'll stick with the logic all teams had at the draft. It's much easier to find a great wing than a great center.
MVP? Maybe scoring title. How many MVP titles did T-Mac win? And T-Mac is a better defender than Durant and a much better assist man. Durant has a long long way to go to be at 'Melo's level - and 'Melo is now mentioned early in the season as an MVP candidate - but he is a more efficient scorer than Durant, He plays defense much better and seems to be able to take over games a lot more frequently than Durant can. With all due respect to Durant - which is a fun player to watch - he is over-hyped beyond recognition. Sure, he scores like crazy - but he is not the first to do it and will not be the last. He has a long way to go to impact the game like a superstar, yet he gets the superstar hype. I thought before that Greg was the way to go - and I have yet to see anything that would change my mind.
Believe it or not, there are posters here who would still draft Oden over Durant. What are you going do
The easiest way for me to evaluate which guy is more likely to lead Portland to a championship is to imagine similar types of talents in their prime on this team. That helps eliminate biases for or against your own players, and forces you to think more in terms of roles. Which looks more formidable: Roy/Aldridge/Mutombo or Roy/Aldridge/Nowitzki? Roy/Aldridge/Mourning or Roy/Aldridge/McGrady? Roy/Aldridge/David Robinson or Roy/Aldridge/Dominique Wilkins? Obviously, none of these comparisons are precise, because players at that level of talent tend have unique styles. Still, though, I think an elite defensive center seems to improve our chances at a title more than an elite scorer. My analogy goes out the window, though, if I've misjudged the talent or if injury strikes. Looks a lot different if you say Roy/Aldridge/Bowie vs Roy/Aldridge/LeBron.
Its funny how this is even a debate. Oden's future is up in the air, while Durant is pretty much going to be a top 5 player in a couple of years. And it's not as if Durant is some underachieving rebounder. This guy can average 9 RPG to offset the possible 13 RPG Oden can put in the boxscore. I'm just tired of hearing Durant as 'just a scorer' when thats far from the truth. He's steadily becoming a decent defender (kind of like TMac's numbers back in Toronto) while putting up 9 rebounds and 26 points. Who knows, Oden may end up a two-three time defensive player of the year. But I just don't see him as the next Tim Duncan (great player on both sides and probably the best player of this decade), more like Ben Wallace in his prime averaging slightly more points. I think he'll average around 15 PPG, 13(or maybe 14-15) RPG and 3 blocks a game. Durant will probably win some scoring titles and an MVP averaging around 27 PPG, 9 RPG and 4 APG. All speculation, but based on the deveopment curve they've both been placed in, it's hard not to say the Blazers made a mistake, plain and simple.
You're not the only one . . . and I get the arguments. To me, it reminds me of fans in Toronto who say the same thing about Roy and Barg. Maybe I'm way off base here, but I would love to see a poll by GMs on this issue. Factoring in everything that posters mentioned here (team chemistry, potential, big man vs. scorer) . . . that is part of their job and I'm convinced a large majority, if not all, would pick Durant.
Forget the large majority, Isiah Thomas was a GM for multiple teams in this league, and McHale was for many years. Could care less if Chris Wallace takes Durant over Oden. What I want to hear is what the San Antonio gang would do. My gut feeling is that it will not be Durant...
Bargnani hasn't shown nearly the production Oden has. Roy has described his teammate as "dominating." Has anyone in a Toronto uniform said that about Bargs? They probably would. But you also have to remember that GM's have to take into account what moves will and won't get them fired. If they could draft the current version of Durant and put him next to Roy and Aldridge, nobody will ever question the move. The Blazers might or might not win a championship or two, but Durant would put fans in the seats, and it'd never be second-guessed. As a fan, however, I'm not accountable for being fired. So I have the luxury of hoping not just for a championship and a crowded arena, but a Blazers Dynasty. I just don't see that happening with Roy/Durant/Aldridge. Aren't enough shots to go around to keep all three happy for more than a year or two. Isn't enough defensive talent there to really dominate consistently. I really don't know if Oden will be an elite center. His injury history is concerning. But I do know that if he actually lives up to his potential, Portland could be looking at multiple championships.
If GMs were given the hypothetical, today Durant or Oden, I think most or all would pick Durant and not because it's based on keeping their jobs. Durant is already proven and his future potential can be as high as Oden. (Some are claiming Durant will be a superstar before all is said and done.) I think your last paragraph is why most would pick Durant. We just don't know with Oden whereas you know what you already get with Durant. IMO, Roy, Durant and Aldrdige would make the Blazers a powerhouse for years and more oif a dynasty than any other time in Blazer history. That might be true with Oden, and I'll conceed that Oden may actually fit better if he develops into the player we all were hoping for. But there are too many players who have never reached their potential, and I think any GM would be hard pressed to take Oden over Durant when it comes to the futuer of a team. Let me say I'm not putting blame on the Blazers for drafting Oden or think Oden is trash. But when I see so many posters saying they would take Oden over Durant "today" . . . well that's when I know I'm on a Blazer board. Bargnani scored 28 points in the season opener and 26 points his last game. They are pretty high on him and if you go to their fanbase, some will tell you tehy wouldn't trade Barg for Roy. Being able to observe a young player grow into the type of talent that is capable of taking over a game through willing these kinds of moments is a rare treat for any basketball fan. Like watching Neo discover his control of the Matrix, fans in Toronto have been privy to another such becoming in the form of their first pick overall, Andrea Bargnani http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Finding-the-‘It--Factor-Andrea-Bargnani-1884/ Andrea Bargnani scored 28 points and had a team-best FIC game score of 16.5 in Toronto's 101-91 Opening Night win over Cleveland. "I was talking about that with a friend the other day. I was saying if Andrea gets going, if he's scoring the basketball a lot, then we're going to be tough to beat," said Chris Bosh. "He had a great second half of (last) season, but we haven't had that consistency with him scoring so many points. So that's a plus for us." "I think there's not too many 7-footers who can do the things he can do," added Toronto point guard Jose Calderon, who picked up 11 assists. "Maybe (Dirk) Nowitzki is the only one."
This lineup would be like the Wizards of the west coast. But with a half court oriented coach. In otherwords, a complete disaster.
I think we pretty much agree. Durant is more of a sure thing. A really good sure thing. Oden is more high risk, high reward. On the low end, he could have a foul/injury-plagued career, whereas Durant hasn't really shown that yet. If Oden pans out, the Blazers will be more dominant and for longer than they would with Durant. I like that gamble on Oden, but I can see why a lot of people wouldn't.
Well, a much more talented version of the Wizards. Aldridge is better than Jamison. Durant is better than Butler. Roy is better than Arenas. I'd say it's more similar to the Celtics' Pierce/Allen/Garnett, but younger. A really nice team. I would've gladly taken that before I knew we could get Oden. The problem is that you always hear how much those three "sacrificed parts of their game to win a championship." That's great and all for a one or two year championship run for vets at the end of their prime. But it doesn't seem sustainable for more than that, especially for younger guys. *shrug* I guess eventually you wind up trading one of them, retooling with some other piece that's just as deadly.
