How would you rank Oden as a starting C as of today?

Some Centers are clearly better, like Howard, Duncan and Bynum, some are clearly worse like Dalembert or Krstic, and then there are a lot that should be in the conversation around Oden like Lopez, Noah, Gasol et al.

 

Well so far, Oden outplayed Duncan on their head to head match-up. Also, Oden has beat up on Okafor and Chandler too. I would say he is getting much better. I am still holding on to my prediction of 15 points/12.6 rebounds/2.1 blocks a game. By mid season, it should be around 12 points, 10 rebounds and 2.6 blocks a game, but as the season ends, I suspect his blocks to go down a bit, since he will be more of an offensive presence.

 

I almost left Duncan off that list, but with all his history, and still putting up a 25+ PER, I thought that I would give him the nod as being better than Oden. In any single matchup, a lesser player can outplay the better one.

 

True. I just figured since many in here will base a season off of one game, it would only be fair. You are right though. Duncan is clearly a better player statistically this season.

 

Oden is probably a top-10 center in the league so far. As soon as he can stay on the court for 35 minutes, he will be top-5.

 

Can't wait for his match-up with Howard, Shaq and Bynum. It will be nice to see him play against other power centers in the league and see what he has going for him. I just hope the refs let them play.

 

If Oden can just play 30 minutes unsaddled from foul trouble, he'll be in the "elite" category as well by the end of next season. It's hard to put up numbers in 17 minutes of foul-plagued game-time, yet he manages to do it and to impact the game positively. On the rare occasions that he stays free of foul trouble, he is the most dominating figure on the floor, and he impacts the game as such.

 

Right now, Oden is putting up a nice PER in severely limited minutes. That makes him either a really good back-up, or a barely adequate starter.

Not playing = not contributing. Blame the refs, blame Nate, blame the guards...the equation doesn't change. He can't be compared to the best starting centers until he plays starters' minutes.

 

Hollinger's player stats for Centers put Greg at #4 in the league for PER and #8 for Value Added/Estimated Wins Added.

Which matches my opinion, currently he is a top-10 Center in the league. As soon as he can stay on the court for 35 minutes, he will be top-5.

really good back-up, or a barely adequate starter is selling him short, even with the foul trouble. Otherwise, he would not be top-8 among centers in Value-Added/Estimated Wins Added.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=per&pos=c&seasonType=2

 

If not PER, then how do you want to compare the centers? A PER of 21.7 is not even close to a "good back-up" or "barely adequate starter". That puts him at 20th in the league overall and 4th for centers.

Please provide a better metric to use to compare the players.

 

WTF? Adequate starter = PER 15.00 Oden is higher then Roy right now...does that make you higher then Jesus (To use a Onionized version of a Lennon quote)?

 

If I had to look at his body of work this season so far, I'd grade it a D+ or C-.

He is a starting center that can't seem to stay on the floor most of the time. As such, he's failing there.

That said, when he can manage to stay on the floor he does a good job. Not great, but good.

 

Not my post, but on-court minutes did impact my ranking of Oden behind the "elite" centers. Until he can consistently be depended upon to stay in the game, his positive contributions to the team are not being maximized. He does have a fantastic PER, and he had one last year as well. So, as his minutes go up, his numbers and impact on the game will as well, and he'll be on the same level as "elite" players now who have a similar PER.

 

What should a "starting center" be producing?

 

PER is a perfectly fine metric, as long as you keep in mind what it is, and isn't.

PER is playing time neutral. IMHO, that is OK....as long as you keep it clearly in mind when comparing 2 players. Last I looked, Speights (of Philly) was in the top 5 in the league for PER. Is he a top 5 player? Is he even a top 5 PF? No, and Hollinger himself would be the first to admit it. All his PER proves, is that he is very efficient in the limited minutes he actually plays.

Put it this way - would you prefer a player who has an 18 PER in 36 MPG, or a player who has a 21 PER in 18 MPG?

 

That's where VA (Value Added) comes in. It measures contribution and includes playing time (PER is efficiency).

Again, in VA - Oden is the #8 center in the league this year. That's your answer, right there. Top-10.

Since Greg averages 22 MPG - I am not sure where the 18 MPG comes from.

But, Greg, at 21+ PER for 22 MPG is ranked higher, in VA than Nene - with 18 PER at 34 MPG

 

TWA, for me, isn't an important measurement for players on limited minutes who are also on good teams.

 

Correct, and it's safe to assume that Oden's VA will increase as he stays on the floor for more minutes. So, it seems oldmangrouch and I share the opinion that Oden won't be "elite" until he plays more than 23 mpg. It appears we differ on how good Oden is now, however. Even at this limited minutes, Oden is a very good starting center.

 

That would be EPA in the link I provided above. Again - #8 in the league.