How would you rank Oden as a starting C as of today?

Well this question is easy. If the Blazers win tonight, he ranks #1. If they lose, he ends up somewhere near the bottom!

 

Looking at other measures, BBR has Win-Score - which is a bit like EPA - based on their formula, Greg Oden's Win-Score so far this year is 2nd/3rd/4th among centers with Bynum and Horford at 1.3 behind D-12 at 1.7

 

Greg is God. Forget all the hoopla over the "PER" numbers. Just embrace that once his fouls become controlled, he will help control the game. FUCK THE NBA AND THEIR REFS that give Oden no love!

 

My problem with win-score and the like are the bias toward players on good teams. While an "individualized" stat, it is dependent on teammates, as there is no true statistic to extract an individual player's impact on winning games. I like the stat, but honestly, I like PER more as a comparative tool.

 

This is an area where I suspect stat-rats and coaches are *not* on the same page. I have no doubt that most coaches would prefer having Nene on the court, to having Oden on the bench. If nothing else, having a guy you can rely on for big minutes every night gives the team more consistency and continuity.

The Blazers are very lucky to have Joel around to step in! Otherwise, people wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the issue.

 

I am not sure how VA is calculated, but win score will benefit teams with better records just as PER does not take into account minutes played. Lopez is on the terrible Net's, so my guess is that his win score would be low, but he is a very good C.

 

Me too. And VA is the answer to what OMG wanted to know about production. But, what WS gives you that PER (and VA) does not - is the defensive component. PER/VA for offensive production and DWS for defensive production.

I think what we see here is that when you look at Greg's offensive contribution he is top-5 by efficiency, top-10 by value (limited by minutes) - but when you add the defensive portion (which DWS measures) - his value jumps to top-5 even with his limited minutes.

I find it hard to argue with these conclusions - Greg won us some games defensively by himself pretty single-handily. He is a game changer on the defensive end - even if he does it in limited minutes.

Again - if we could have a better tool for defensive contributions - I would leave WS out - but since we do not, we should use it as another data point. It's the best we might have for this side of the court.

 

VA has nothing to do with wins, and I agree that win-score is problematic, but for the defensive side of the game - PER and VA are very limited.

 

I disagree, especially when you have a great BU like Joel. It's not like when Oden is out, there are no other options.

 

Well, more than 23 minutes per game would be a start.

We all know Oden is productive when he's actually on the court, but he's on the court less than half a game so far and that has to be factored in whenever you're comparing him to other players. I'm a huge Oden homer and even I know the Blazers can't really rely on him until he finds a way to cut down on fouls. It's frustrating because I see how dominate he could be.

 

You really think the Blazers would prefer to have Nene with his nice but not elite production over Oden just because of the extra 12 minutes per game he plays? I doubt it in this day and age - when most teams do not have great centers. Maybe in the 90s.

Given that I am not an NBA coach - I can not tell you what they would prefer. But, we are lucky that we have Joel - and on the other side of the coin - I suspect that if we did not - Nate would have allowed Greg to play more and foul out more often - so he would have more than 22 MPG...

Right now Greg is averaging 6.3 fouls per 36, so he could easily have averaged 30 MPG instead of 22 if we did not have Joel.

I am guessing Nate is using a reward system and will give him more minutes when he fouls less often - but it's not as if he could not play him more.

 

I would say that a starting center should be averaging 32-35 mpg. After that, I would expect a minimum of 9 rebounds, 1-2 blocks and points are iffy depending on their role.

But, to me, it starts with being on the floor.

 

His biggest contribution is on the defensive end.

That is where Portland has made the biggest strides and Oden is a HUGE part of that improvement.

Having Oden out there allows Joel to be way more aggressive on defense when Joel gets in the game. They both are playing defense at a very high level right now.

Holding teams to under 40% shooting is very nice.

You can tell guys stop attacking the rim once Oden blocks a shot or two. He is just a pressence on the court.

That's the only way I can say it. Hard to quantify, though.

 

So would you rather have Brendan Haywood cause he is on the floor for 34mpg and pulls down 9 rebounds?

 

I'd rank him really high on whatever scale you have. He's 21 years old and playing with the best in the league despite foul trouble.

He'll continue to get better and play longer in games. Did I mention he's only 21 years old??

Howard, Duncan, Shaq, Perkins, Okur, Kaman, and maybe Bynum are better now night in and night out. But, Greg is gaining speed on them. It won't be long IMO and he'll have them in his dust, except Howard. I hope he can be even better than Howard someday - but it'll take a while.

 

No, that's not what blazerprophet said. He was answering what is expected out of a starting center.

I'd prefer Oden for 34 mpg over Oden for 23 mpg, and I imagine blazerprophet would as well.

 

Defense: A+
Offense: C+
Fouls: F

Overall I'd rate him at about a B-; great contributions and a game changer when he's on the court, not being able to stay on the court really blunts his overall effectiveness. No Pryzbilla backing him up and I doubt we'd be able to cover the gap if we had a normal NBA quality backup 5 (ie. a 6'8" converted power forward or a 7' stiff).

 

Well, all of the intelligent ones.