The only stat that matters is championships. I bet Oden has more than Durant when it's all said and done.
It's because PER only accounts for offense. Kobe has intangibles that Dirk does not possess. A killer instinct, leadership skills, winning track record, all-NBA defense...and Dirk himself is no slouch so it's not totally absurd that he could have a better PER than Kobe. I don't know about that last comment. And if it was 90%, I'd be suspect of those GM's abilities to build a team. Scoring wings and guards have come through the NBA every year. Durant is a nod ahead of most, but not head and shoulders and definitely not anywhere near MJ caliber (at least not yet). I don't think he's even better than Carmelo, who is the third best player of his own draft class. A TRUE center, that stays put inside the paint, guards the rim, and rebounds the hell out of the ball comes very rarely. That's why so many teams roll the dice on the Kwame's, Olowankandi's, and Thabeets of the world. Because if they actually pan out, they will a have a championship contending team. They take a gamble despite knowing that when a center busts, he really busts. With that, it's still up in the air on whether Oden will pan out to be a great center. With all the play we've seen so far in limited action, I see the potential and glimpses. As of now, the only things stopping him is foul trouble and himself. He's still going to have some bad games occasionally (that Atlanta one in particular...) but even Durant still has off games. 3-21, anybody? LeBron James and his Cavs were at above .500 in his second year. And I'm pretty sure Durant was surrounded by better teammates in his sophomore year yet still had one of the worst records of the year (not to mention, his team plays better without him). And can Durant make it to the Western finals within a year? I know that I'm now comparing him to LeBron instead of Oden, but that's what happens when people get on his balls of being the next big thing. He's clearly not.
Stop focusing on the statistics and start focusing on the game results. Oden helps teams win more than Durant does.
That's a bit amusing: "The better metric to use is what is my opinion about who GMs would rather have. I guarantee you my opinion is right." How's this: The better metric is who makes a bigger impact. I guarantee you Oden does. As for PER, it has drawbacks...most notably that it does not account for defense in a very meaningful way (a drawback that Hollinger agrees with and has never represented it as a measure of everything). It's a measure of production (things that show up in a box score). The problem is, that should hurt Oden not Durant. Durant's strength is the things that show up in the box score. Oden's strength is defense (which largely does not show up for an individual in a box score because there's much more to defense than blocks and steals). Yet, Oden still matches or beats Durant in it. That's not good news if you want to argue that Durant is better. I think right now, Durant might have more impact because he plays more minutes. I think Oden has more impact when on the court, but to get anywhere near elite impact, he has to play at least normal starter minutes.
I don't think anyone is arguing that Durant is an elite player right now. All star? yeah. But he's not on that level yet. But where'd you get off on Durant not being the next big thing? I don't believe he's the next big thing (a la Duncan, Kobe, Lebron etc.) but I DO believe he'll make an impact the same way DWade or Dwight do one day (tier 1-B). I actually agree with the rest of your post, so no need for me to argue with that.
I didn't mean it in that regard at all, and if it was interpreted that way, then I apologize. I really want to give you a response worth reading (much less a response like yours) , but I got a paper to write. One thing I do seem to notice when comparing a young budding big man's production is that they are usually more efficient than a young swingman (with strong exceptions ie. Lebron). I don't have a problem with most of what you said, but I do have a problem with your take on Durant's defensive potential. Two things to note: During the first half of the season last year, Durant was playing out position which stunted some of his development, but ever since his move to SF in mid-december, he's put up far superior numbers and has his rebounding has nearly doubled. Secondly, inconsistency is a big factor in his game/efficiency, but he's working on it. I'd venture to say his hot streaks are going to be more valuable than Oden's 'defensive flashes of brilliance'.
I think the reason for that is that big men tend to be more efficient (talent for talent), not that PER unfairly skews to big men. PER isn't flawless, but does a fairly good job of putting numbers like scoring, rebounding and assists in context for pace, opportunities and efficiency (i.e. scoring 20 points is valuable when done at a certain efficiency and really not valuable if done using lots of shots/possessions). That's the reason why talented big men are so sought after...they tend to score more efficiently (since they play closer to the hoop by and large), they tend to rebound a lot more for the same reason and due to their inside-out role in the offense, they tend to help their teammates score (and get assists for that) but don't turn the ball over so much since they do their helping teammates without dribbling a lot. Now, all of that doesn't apply to Oden (notably, the fewer turnovers) but they are all reasons, I think, why (talented) big men tend to show better in PER. They simply are more efficient, at comparable levels of talent. I didn't render a take on his defensive potential. I just said that his strength was more the "box score" stuff, while Oden's strength so far has been non-statistically tabulated defense. I think that's quite accurate...Durant's no defensive stopper and Oden has generally been a defensive impact-maker (when on the floor, of course...staying on the floor is a problem for him, no question). I don't really have an opinion on Durant's defensive potential. The tools are there for him to be a high-level defender, but the instincts and technique aren't. Those generally boil down to motivation and endurance (lots of players would like to work hard on defense, but have trouble doing so game after game, especially when they carry much of the offensive burden). Will Durant have the motivation and stamina? I think that's pretty much impossible to know. I hope he does. I love watching good/great all-around perimeter players. Well, I'd say it's more than flashes. I think Oden is great defensively 90% of the time he's on the floor. His "flashes of brilliance" come on the offensive end. I don't know if Oden will become consistent on the offensive end, but I think he will with experience. I think those "flashes" on offense show that he has the capability to become an offensive force. But, again, it'll require staying on the floor...to give him more experience and to get into a rhythm in games, rather than making constant trips back and forth to the bench because of fouls. To be clear, I think Durant is a fantastic talent. I think he'll be a top-five perimeter player in the league during his prime. He's as natural a scorer as Kobe, McGrady, Carmelo, LeBron and Wade. The main questions are will he become a play-maker for others and will he become a solid defender? If he doesn't, he can still be Carmelo Anthony, which is pretty high value. If he does, he can be as good as Kobe or McGrady before his injuries. (Hard to imagine him becoming as good as James, but in my lifetime only Jordan was at or above James' level.) Of course, I think Oden is also a fantastic talent. He's already an elite rebounder and a high-level defender (with only his foul rate, really, holding him back from elite defense). He has the the tools for a very good offensive game and has already shown the development of it. I think that within a couple of years he'll be on Dwight Howard's level and has the potential to surpass Howard. Assuming that that offensive development continues. That and health are his questions.
I may not post much. But I'm guessing that a poster who admits we are talking about a Ben Wallace defense role and then states, "He has yet to show that level of defense or rebounding" has not run any meaningful analysis homework before he opened his mouth. Four former DPOY averaged less than 30 minutes a game and used their Per 36 stats in order to lead them in voting to get the award (those being Dennis Rodman, Kevin Garnett, Camby, and Michael Cooper). Oden's current minutes are 24.3. Not great, but with the handful of games he is learning to manage his time on the floor for fouls, and the handful of blowouts against weak opponents skewing the numbers a little, it is very likely he'll be up there in that 27-30 minute range that qualifies for a DPOY. That said, his defesensive stats per 36 for starting NBA players are 2nd in rebounding behind Noah and 1st in blocks. So what part of being 1st in blocks and 2nd in rebounding on an even measuring scale of per minutes played by starting players equates to "not showing that level of defense" as guys like former DPOY or even just Ben Wallace? Please let me know.
well it was good natured ribbing. for MY pleasure. i guess my point is that there is still a debate with oden/durant. not so much with bargs/roy
Wow. You just said a "better way to look at this" is to use YOUR OPINION as better supporting evidence of a player's ability than PER. It is pretty tough to have an intelligent conversation when one wants to use that sort of (lack of) logic.
A better way to look at it is to wait for their career to unfold before you make up your mind. If you do not like PER, let's look at something else. The statistics show that Oden's impact on the defense is bigger than Durant's on the offense. As of this moment in time, OKC is 24th in the league in offensive efficiency. It's hard to understand how such a grand offensive player can not bring his team to be at least in the upper half of the league offensively. Today, on the other hand, Portland, a team with 3 defensive players (one of them - Batum, injured) is 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency.
As stated earlier, I went about in saying it the wrong way, and so I apologize. That goes for the other dude who got his period when I said it.
Fair enough. I can't say I don't agree with that assessment. However, you must also take into account that Durant is the focal point of that offense. Without him, that team is as bad as the Nets, maybe worse. And if you take out Greg Oden from the Trailblazers, that team can still make the playoffs. I mean, no one here is Ms. Cleo and so only time will tell on how these two players' careers will pan out. But as the jury stands, Durants had the far more successful career, and he's headed to becoming a top 5 talent; whereas, Oden might not even make the all star team this year? Given, its a small sample size, but we really dont have much outside of a guess on how it all unfolds. But for the record, I do love watching both Oden and Durant play. Nothings better than seeing a young swingman and big man spark up a debate on who will be the better player down the line. All in good fun.
Maybe this year, have not seen enough of them to really make this argument or refute it, so I will take your word for it. I would like to point that last year the Thunder were 5-3 when Durant did not play. They were 18-56 when he did. Honestly, if you look at TS% - Durant is #2 on the team and his TS% is not much higher than Westbrook and Jeff Green. My opinion is that if the Thunder would go more to Westbrook on offense, and feature him - his TS% will be just as high as Durant's, if only by his ability to get into the lane and draw free-throws. Westbrook can score, Harden can have a bigger part in the offense, their other role-players are not offensive holes. They will probably not be over .500 - but I do not think they would be anywhere near where NJN is this year. The nicest thing about Durant this year - is that his defense seems to be miles better than last year - so this year, I suspect we will not see the kind of on/off success against him that we saw last year - but I am going to argue that I find it hard to believe that that the Thunder will be as bad as NJN without Durant.
You're having a very difficult time distinguishing between facts and your opinion. For example, there have been stats suggesting that the Thunder were better last year without Durant. Whether or not it is absolutely true, I don't know. But you can't deny that there are reasonable stats and facts to back up that position.
Yes without Oden, we still have a great shot of making the playoffs. But last season, with a much reduced and slower Oden, we weren't that good defensively. Regardless of the statistical numbers, Oden changes the game. Players tend to think more before they try and score in the paint, which even without a block, can alter their shots and make them miss.
