2008 Blake V. 2009 Miller - Advanced Statistical Comparison

It is this kind of "logic" that makes it hard for anyone to take your conclusions seriously.

Miller starting at PG is only ONE of several variables that are different this season than last.

Last year's starting line-up:

Center - Joel (for 43 games and Greg for the other 39)
PF - LaMarcus
SF - Batum
SG - Roy
PB - Blake

This year's starting line-up:
Center - Greg
PF - LaMarcus
SF - Roy
SG - Blake
PB - Miller

Notice that our starters this year are different than last year at 4 of the 5 positions (at the very least 3.5 out of 5 as Greg started almost half the games last season at center). Saying the Andre Miller is the only difference is a false assumption, and basing your conclusions on false assumptions renders those conclusions invalid.

I want to say it one more time, I'm not anti Blake - I'm anti starting both Blake and Miller together as it forces at least two of our starting five to play out of position. Roy is much better at SG, where he has excellent size and strength for the position, than he is at SF where he is severely undersized compared to other starting SFs. Roy's scoring and over all productivity (PER) are both down significantly this season. You want to blame that on playing with Andre Miller. You concluded that before they even took they court together that Roy and Miller could not co-exist in the starting backcourt. That conclusion was based on zero data. Now, because Roy's production is down, you chose to ignore the obvious cause (he's playing out of position) and use it to "prove" your original baseless conclusion (Roy and Miller can't co-exist). Roy can no longer overpower his opponent. Instead, he is the one that's getting overpowered by the bigger, stronger players that are guarding him and that he is forced to guard on the other end. So, he has trouble scoring against bigger stronger defenders and is worn out from trying to guard them on the other end. In my opinion, playing out of position at SF is the major reason for Roy's decreased productivity.

Miller and Blake also end up playing out of position. Blake plays shooting guard on offense, where he is now guarded by bigger, stronger opponents. As a result, his shooting percentages and over all productivity are both WAY down from last season. He no longer gets to spot up and shoot over the outstretched hand of 6'1" PGs, he now has to get his shot off with a 6'6" shooting guard charging at him. Big difference - and it explains why Blake's shooting percentages have dropped so dramatically (0.364 vs. 0.428 FG% and 0.365 vs. 0.427 3FG%)

Miller also ends up guarding bigger, stronger shooting guards on the other end, which puts him at a physical disadvantage and wears him out physically.

So, if you look at just he starting wing positions from last year compared to this year:

Last year:
SF - Batum, PER = 12.9
SG - Roy, PER = 24.0
Combined PER= 36.9

This year:
SF - Roy, PER = 20.0
SG - Blake, PER = 9.5
Combined PER= 29.5

Difference = -7.4 or -20%

By forcing Roy and Blake to play out of position, the combined production from our small forward and shooting guard positions are down 20% compared to last season - THAT is the biggest reason why our offense is so much less efficient this season than last - NOT Andre Miller vs. Steve Blake at the starting PG position.

Concerning Miller this season vs. Blake last season the data you presented seems to indicate it's a wash (Blake 2008-09 PER = 14.4, Miller 2009-10 PER = 14.3). I disagree. In addition to the very small sample size, Miller's PER as our starting PG is much higher than his total PER of 14.3. Prior to the first five games of this season, Miller has not had to come off the bench since his rookie year. It's not a role that suits him. Prior to moving into the starting line-up, Miller's PER was down in the single digits. Now that he has been starting for 8 games, he has been able to pull his total PER up to 14.3. I don't know of a site that gives PER splits for starter vs. reserve roles, but basketball-reference does give most basic stats for these different roles. If you look at Miller's stats as a starter vs. his stats as a reserve, you will see both the raw stats and the per-minute stats are MUCH better over all as a starter than as a reserve. If you do the math, you will see his PTS/36 and REB/36 are both up considerably as a starter, as is his FG% (0.432 vs. 0.316). His APG is up, slightly, but his AST/36 is down slightly. Over all, based on his increased scoring, rebounding and much higher shooting percentage, it is reasonable to conclude that his PER as a starter is significantly higher than his total seasonal PER of 14.3. Therefore, Miller as a starter in 2009-10 IS an upgrade over Blake as a starter (PER = 14.4) in 2008-09.

So, rather than bash Steve Blake. I would like to see him, Brandon Roy and Andre Miller all put in roles where they can thrive. In my opinion, that means moving Roy back to his best, most natural position of shooting guard where he will once again have an advantage over his opponents, moving Steve Blake to back-up PG where he will enjoy much better match ups than he does at starting shooting guard, and let Andre Miller continue to start at PG where he is (as a starter) outproducing Blake both this season and last. That means moving Martell back into the starting line-up. This will have the added benefit of improving our team defense and rebounding.

BNM

 

Repped.

 

Its like talking to a Rock....very difficult

 

Followed by...

You make this too easy.

 

Yea, he tried to make the same point about not making an argument. Yet the thread is littered with arguments, not good solid ones btw.

 

Wait until we're 40+ games into the season to start calling Miller a "dud"...He is a much better PG than Steve Blake and has shown that throughout his entire career.

 

Why. BLANKY'S already been deemed a "dud" after 13 games.

 

Great. I agree. BLANKY has been getting killed, while Miller gets a pass. The comparative stats tell me the Blazers have downgraded at PG. What is obvious is that the SG (BLANKY) is a downgrade as well.

It's a small sample size. I wanted to check the stats to see if Miller was an improvement on BLANKY'S 2008. The results surprised me, so I posted them.

 

Those aren't arguments. They are comments based on stats presented in this thread.

That said, since you literally never answer a post of mine except to criticize me or try some lame "gotcha", I'm going to ignore you. I think we'll both be better of for it, because you really don't add anything substantive.

 

No Miller does not "get a pass". You've made sure of that ever since he was signed, let alone set foot on the court in a Blazers uniform. You ragged on him during training camp, you ragged on him during the preseason and you've continued to rag on him during the regular season, and you continue to rag on him in this thread. Please explain to me how your constant anti-Miller posts polluting this forum == getting a pass.

No, they don't. They tell you that Miller's TOTAL stats for 2009-10 are comparable to Blake's for 2008-09 (PER = 14.3 vs. PER = 14.4). But they also tell you that Miller's stats are MUCH better as a starter than they were coming off the bench. Give Miller enough games as the starter, and it will become crystal clear that he is a significant upgrade at PG over Steve Blake. Plus, unless you have a time machine, you can't have 2008-09 Steve Blake, you're stuck with 2009-10 Steve Blake who can't seem to throw a ball in the ocean these days (0.364 FG%) and has a PER of 9.5.

A HUGE, HUGE, HUGE downgrade (from Roy's PER = 24.0 to Blake's PER = 9.5). It is not Blake's natural postion and it shows. He's a very capable back-up PG, or a marginal starting PG. He's NOT a starting SG. I can't understand why that isn't obvious to Nate.

Plus, playing Blake at SG forces our best player to play out of position, which negatively impacts his performance as well - which is obvious by looking at Roy's stats and by watching him struggle against bigger players in the games.

You reached your conclusion LONG before you looked at the data. So, it's only natural you would massage that data (Blake's 2008-09 stats vs. Miller's 2009-10 stats) to prop up your premature conclusion. As I pointed out in my previous post, Miller's perfomance as a starting PG this season is better than Blake's was last season - AND our reduced offensivive efficiency is a result of out best player being forced out of position so that Blake, with a PER of 9.5 can also continue to start and play out of position at SG.

We have yet to see a starting backcourt of Roy and Miller. Claiming they cannot co-exist is baseless until we do. It's pretty obvious that forcing Roy and Blake to play out of position hurts our offensive efficiency. Again, I think the best solution is to let all three players play a role where they can thrive. Those roles are: Roy starting SG, Miller starting SG and Blake back-up PG.

BNM

 

The thing I don't understand is why this thread is concentrating on Miller vs Blanky. To me, it is about Blanky vs Rudy vs Bayless. At least with the current lineup configuration.

 

Probably a good idea for you. If you can't have an intelligent conversation and back up your own nonsensical arguments, you should just ignore the people that call you out on them.

If you want me (or anybody else for that matter) to answer a post of your's, post it in a logical, non-leading (without your obvious preconceived bias) and non-trolling manner.

 

Ive only seen three games live this season but in the three games miller seemed like a better point guard. Not as good of a shooter as Blake but he is the first person I have seen get Greg the ball where he wants it. Greg is a feast of famine player and miller to me has been the best guy at getting him good touches early on. I think that Webster has to play with Miller because Miller can't shoot. So either way off the bench or starting you have to have either Webster or Rudy play with mill to help stretch the floor. I hate starting Miller and Blake we are already having trouble figuring out who to run the offense through now we are trying to put 3 guys who want to run the floor starting together, who does that leave to run the floor with the bench team? I think eventually we will start Miller, Roy, Webster, LA, Oden I blame this all Nate right now he came into the preseason basically set on rotations now we have a couple of injuries and the chemistry doesn't seem to be there.

 

More like his whole career.

 

18 minutes, 2 assists, 7 TOs.

I'd run an update, but...

 

Easily.

This team minus Miller plus Sergio = last years team.

Miller is like SAR. Great on paper, teamkiller in reality.

 

That's because you refuse to admit the obvious.

Miller is the problem.

 

Obviously people care.

 

Hmmmm...