Oden, at age 21, is "officially" neither a success nor a bust. That he will be a titanic bust, when his career has played out, is officially your prediction. Noted. I'm not willing to essay a prediction at this point in time, until surgery has happened and we know as much as possible. From what has been reported, though, this is a bone fracture, not tendon damage, so it isn't like Bowie at all. His ability level shouldn't be affected like Bowie's was.
I actually think a lot of folks who have been talking about the Blazers being divided should really read that article about that exchange between Roy and Oden. Here is Roys reply: I just kept trying to tell him we love you and get better. He's more upset because he feels like he let us down and that's not the way to feel." See that is what the beat writers, and many of the fans will never get. The team has a bond, and for all the talking that is done about players being selfish, not getting along, and not working out, when in fact, the team is tight.
And 12 months from now, when he is right back to where he was in 2008, people who actually expect him to perform will be accused of being impatient and unreasonable. And 24 months from now - what will the excuse be then? Normal, healthy 21 year olds don't break bones bumping into other people. Collisions like that occur a dozen times a game in the NBA...and even more frequently in the NFL and NHL. I'm half Oden's size, more than twice his age, and have severe arthritis...but I bet you I can run into Aaron Brooks and not break a bone! At some point, you have to face up to the fact that there is more at work here than bad luck.
All you are doing is restating your predictions. Will your predictions come true? Maybe. If he continues picking up season-ending injuries, I don't think anyone will accuse people like you of "impatience." But I'm certainly not willing to write off a 21 year old who has yet to suffer an injury that is considered career-altering. That is certainly possible. Of course, if ten years from now, he's played a string of 70+ game seasons, what will having "officially" declared him a bust in 2009 mean? I get it. You don't think that will happen. I have no idea what will happen. But a few years into his career and with no transformational injury, I'm willing to let a bit more time play out before I decide that Oden's chances at a meaningful career are finished.
You're much less likely to be injured with a 2" vert? Just getting separation from the ground is a monumental success for you.
had to blog about this while waiting for a flight at the aeroporte (my first blog, yay). http://thebeaverstate.net/?p=49
