What's Wrong with the Bulls?

Shapecity · Dec 9, 2009

Opinions varied as to what type of team Chicago would be this season, but nobody thought it would be the kind that loses at home to the 1-19 Nets.

High expectations greeted the Bulls this fall after they narrowly lost an epic playoff series against Boston last spring. With a promising young point guard in Derrick Rose and with forward Luol Deng returning from injury, most experts pegged Chicago for the playoffs. Some thought they could be a 50-win team and challenge the East's upper crust. Certainly nobody thought they'd be a 50-loss team.

Guess again.

That's where they're headed after Tuesday night's depressing home loss to New Jersey -- Wednesday's Playoff Odds project their final record at 32-50. Outscored by more than seven points a game, the Bulls rank just 27th in my Power Rankings and seem destined to fall far short of the promise generated in last season's playoffs.

So what happened? Let's break it down.

For starters, the Bulls are a bad offensive team without Ben Gordon. They weren't exactly gangbusters even with him, but his departure in free agency has exposed a glaring lack of shooting. The Bulls are 28th in 3-pointers per game (3.7) and 23rd in 3-point percentage (31.3 percent).

Unfortunately for the Bulls, guards Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons both tanked just as Gordon left. Hinrich's rebirth last postseason proved temporary. His 36.8 percent shooting and 9.61 PER this season have been major disappointments. He is briefly sidelined with a thumb injury, but when he comes back, the Bulls will need him to shoot much better -- he's the most qualified floor-spacer left on the roster.

Salmons' decline was perhaps more predictable, as his numbers last season vastly exceeded his long-term averages. Nonetheless, it's been a harsh descent. He has slid to 39.0 percent from the floor and a career-low 2.5 assists per 40 minutes, with the latter number cementing his reputation for forcing his shot.

As a result of the poor shooting in the backcourt, the Bulls are starved of space at the offensive end. This is especially problematic since much of what they run depends on space. Chicago's main offensive strategy is to create room for point guard Derrick Rose to penetrate and create. Rose's ankle injury limits the effectiveness of this plan, but even when he's at full strength, it's hard to view this as a panacea. In fact, it's questionable he should play such a primary role this early in his career since Deng has been the more effective offensive player.

Thanks to all those problems, the Bulls rate only 27th in offensive efficiency and are one of only three teams with a true shooting percentage under 50. The only thing preventing them from ranking lower is Joakim Noah's proficiency at gathering all the bricks shot up by his teammates; only three starting centers top his 13.3 offensive rebound rate.

And yet I'd argue offense is only their second-biggest problem.

I had no delusions of grandeur for the Bulls' offense this season, but I thought they could offset that weakness by ranking in the upper tier of the league's defensive clubs. They defended well early this season, with the club's two signature wins -- on the road against Cleveland and at home against San Antonio -- coming when Chicago surrendered just 85 points.

However, the Bulls have fallen apart since then, and it's fair to question their effort at this point. Seven of Chicago's past nine opponents cleared the century mark, including the lowly Nets on Tuesday night. With the talent the Bulls have on the floor, that shouldn't happen. Salmons, Hinrich and Deng all are accomplished wing defenders; Noah is a strong help defender from the center spot, and rookie power forward Taj Gibson is a good defensive player too.

There are weak links, of course. With shot-blocking specialist Tyrus Thomas out, defensively challenged Brad Miller and Gibson have had to take on larger roles. Additionally, Rose continues to permit penetration at the point of attack, leaving the other four defenders scrambling. (This may be the most underreported NBA story of the past year -- the reigning Rookie of the Year's inability to play anything resembling passable defense.)

Nonetheless, other teams have weak links too, and most of them defend better than Chicago does. There is far too much ability on hand for the Bulls to rank just 18th in defensive efficiency, which is where they find themselves today. The shots may not fall, but they should at least defend with passion. Aside from Noah, they haven't shown they will do that.

And on both ends, one wonders if there's a plan and if the players believe in it. Second-year coach Vinny Del Negro showed his inexperience last postseason, while the front office has become infamous for its failure to seize the moment when opportunity presents itself -- most notably for its inaction in recent years when stars like Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol landed on the trade market and the Bulls owned a trove of assets.

We may be heading for an encore performance. The Bulls let Gordon walk and failed to bolster the bench this past summer because Chicago will have enough cap space to pursue a maximum-salaried free agent in the summer of 2010. In the best case, perhaps that player would be Chicago native Dwyane Wade.

That all depends, however, on the Bulls' playing well enough to persuade a superstar that he could put them over the top. I'm not sure the likes of Wade or Chris Bosh can see much difference between their current teammates and Chicago's roster, Rose's presence notwithstanding, and they have to harbor some doubt as to whether Chicago's notoriously dithering brass can put the necessary pieces around them in the future. Del Negro is said to be on thin ice given the slow start, but there's no guarantee Chicago's next choice will be any better.

As for this season, it's tough to see a way out. The Bulls' hands are tied by their cap strategy, so depth will be a problem all season. Meanwhile, if Hinrich and Salmons can't regain their touch, the lack of shooting will continue to suffocate the offense.

The only solution is for them to defend furiously, much as Chicago's overachieving teams under Scott Skiles earlier this decade did. Unfortunately, the Bulls' players seem as demoralized as their fans. If that continues and leads to free agents shunning Chicago this summer, the Bulls' current struggles will have far-reaching consequences.
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Source: Per Diem

Denny Crane · Dec 9, 2009

Stunningly accurate about every point.

MikeDC · Dec 9, 2009

It's not exactly hard to find the flaws here

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What's Wrong with the Bulls?

Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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