I don't really agree with this. It isn't as if Miller has played with just one set of teammates and one system for his career. He's had lots of different teammates and various systems and has consistently been good. I don't see the big swings in performance in Miller's history that would suggest his play-making is a less-predictable skill than Blake's shooting. My use of "slump" wasn't intended to be a precise term...I was using "slump" as a proxy for "lower level of performance than normal." My point is that we have a performance track record for both players, and it is significantly more likely that that performance history is the "true talent level" than the sample we've seen this season. For both players.
Even if you say last year was an anomaly . . . his carreer .407 FG/.388 3 Pt compared to this season .367/.342 suggests this he's having a bad year. I don't think it's the shoulder. I think Blake's confidence hit the skids the day we signed Miller. He also isn't getting the same looks he had last year, when Roy had an easier time getting off. When Brandon was knocking down jumpers and getting to the basket, it opened the door for a lot of open 3's for Blake.
Even if one of them is traded it's still quite likely he recedes back to limited time. He's still got a heap to learn about team defense, is too short to guard most players anyway, and is nowhere near good enough to justify limiting Rudy, Travis or Nic. If Blake and Miller both get traded he's got a shot, but the timing STRONGLY suggests Bayless is being showcased for a "Miller/Bayless for _____?_____" trade.
From Day 1 Miller has stated, almost bragged, that he doesn't work out at all during the summer, doesn't worry about getting into shape for training camp even, preferring to "work my way into shape through the first part of the season". That his play has not helped the team much should come as no surprise to anyone.
Yea I agree. He is both playing like Blake from a previous year, but without confidence. So it is a double downer.
He's been a pretty good three point shooter, but that's about the only place he shoots well from (terrible finisher around the basket and has never been all that good off the dribble). What he's really doing in this offense is playing the small forward position that Martell has had trouble occupying with any consistency. Makes me wonder which way this team is going to go as far as roster consolidation. When and if Mills comes back that will leave the team with 4 point guards and one very inconsistent small forward, and who knows just when and how effective Nic will be when he supposedly returns to the roster in February.
Until and unless Rudy shows he can play full-time as a starter in a backcourt with Roy (which has some serious problems defensively) I think you're identifying the wrong "most likely to be traded" candidate. Honestly I think it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility to see Miller, Rudy and filler put on the block in an attempt to bring back a big time small forward. If Bayless shows he can coexist in the backcourt (which means guarding point guards and meshing with Roy's style of play) then I think it's going to be very hard for a case to be made to move him (and Nic and Travis have about as much to do with his PT as Joel does.)
Blake may be a better 3 point shooter even this abysmal season, but he doesn't draw fouls. Which can be vital late in games. Many reasons why. Getting an opponent in foul trouble keeps them off the floor. Foul shots are easy baskets, that's why they call the shots "Free". Not drawing fouls means that the defense isn't being pressured by a given player. Blake for example has 425 FTA in 445 career games. How many of those are from Technical fouls and end of game foul who ever has the ball? With less than 1 FTA per game for a career I'd guess that about half of those were Technical and end of games. By perspective if you look at what Bayless does, he forces teams to react quickly to him or he is going to be in the paint in a blink and drawing a foul on a big man. Big men going down as we know takes away valuable defense and rebounding. Bayless spreads the floor more efficiently this season while shooting sub 30% from 3 than Blake does shooting 34.5% from 3.
Hitting the three isn't even really the issue for Bayless, it's the fact that he's starting to hit a mid-range jumper (15-18 feet) off the dribble. If he can continue to hit it defenders won't be able to sage off and lure him into a charge like they were able last year. And frankly, he's starting to take over Travis' third scorer role, except that instead of taking two dribbles and pulling up for some crazy off-balance 21 footer just inside the arc, he's driving and either finishing or getting fouled -- hence the 62%+ True Shooting percentage. The reality though is that Bayless isn't really spacing the floor, he's taking advantage of back cuts off of passes from Roy and Miller when those two draw a second or third defender. This team still needs a reliable perimeter threat.
I agree with you. Given the way the team and individuals are playing though Steve Blake isn't the right guy for the role, well let me put it this way if Roy and Bayless are carrying you late like last night, we need a SF who can hit the 3, not a 3rd guard. Webster in theory could be that guy but he has happy hands. Love the Bruce Campbell avatar BTW.
If I were to make a prediction - it would be that Blake + Bayless in a trade makes more sense. Blake is expiring, and Bayless can stick around to the team that makes this trade. Miller will mentor Mills, not Bayless. Mills is a true PG. Bayless will never be! He doesn't have the ball handling skills needed to play the point. With this theory, what might Blake+Bayless+Pick net us? I'd take Gortat. I'd take Butler. Hmmm
This works: RealGM Caron Butler + Fabrico Oberto for Bayless, Webster, Blake ----------------------------------------- Miller + Mills Roy + Rudy Butler + Cunningham + (Batum / Outlaw) LMA + Toliver + Pedergraph + Howard Pryzbilla + Oberto + (Oden)
First I do not at all want to trade Bayless, second even if I did I say wait till the deadline or summer when IMO his value will go up because he performs well with his playing time. and who knows maybe a Mill/Bayless combo eventually might work into a very nice duo to play with Roy and Rudy.
Where did this fallacy come from? Mills was a scorer at St. Mary's -- a high volume, low efficiency scorer.
hopefully Rudy can be that again in the not so distant future. As maligned as he is for his other shortcomings, Martell is at 37% on his deep ball which ain't bad. STOMP
The trouble with Martell is that for most of the first quarter of the season that 3 pt shooting has either been red hot or stone cold. Lately he's gotten better with his consistency (2-4, 2-5, etc.) but you can hardly rely on him to space the floor when there's so much variability. As for Rudy being a dead-eye three point shooter and floor spacer, if only he were about 2 or 3 inches taller and a little broader and could play small forward opposite of Brandon; as much as I would like to think that he's going to be a lifelong Blazer he's got the right skills but I'm beginning to think they're at the wrong position. I still contend that this team probably needs a defensive specialist who is a 3 pt shooter in the Shane Battier mold (assuming of course that there's no reasonable way to get Battier), Nic could eventually develop into that role, but in the meantime I think it's probably wise to think about what a package with some combination of Rudy, Travis, Webster, etc. can get you in a trade.
[video=youtube;SiMHTK15Pik]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiMHTK15Pik&feature=related"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiMHTK15Pik&feature=related[/video]
I don't get why we always talk about needing a "true pg". Roy handles the ball a majority of the time in this offense, and we need someone who can take advantage of the extra attention paid to Roy. Last year it was Blake with his shooting, obviously not this year, and now it is Bayless. He is able to take advantage of the D and get to the basket. A Bayless/Roy backcourt is honestly a perfect match, they just need time to gel together. Bayless is a much better shooter than he has shown since being in the NBA, and he does have 3-point range. Once he gets the confidence in that shot, him and Roy will be a helluva combo in the backcourt.
