Is January's schedule really THAT difficult? Golden State - W Clippers Memphis Lakers Cavaliers Milwaukee Orlando Washington Philadelphia Boston Detroit New orleans Utah Houston Dallas Boston, Lakers, Cavs and Magic are all better teams than us, and 4 likely losses. Of course, if Boston isn't healthy by then, that game becomes more interesting. Dallas should be a tight game. Houston has played well, and could potentially look different by that time, if McGrady is shopped, but I still think we're a better team than they are. Not saying there are "easy" games, but Milwaukee, Houston, Memphis, new Orleans, Detroit, Washington and Philadelphia are all winnable games. It's not an easy schedule, but not the difficult schedule I have heard people make it out to be.
The only thing that would concern me is that they become worn out before they can get some players back, but Portland could have 12 players by the end of the month. Hopefully not having a true center won't hurt them too much like it's not necessarily hurting Houston.
MIXUM is just being contrarian. That's his schtick. Once you realize this it won't bother you too much.
If you're being objective (looking strictly at matchups, strength of opponent, home and away, back to backs, etc.) you could pencil in 9 losses and not think twice about it. That doesn't mean they will go 6-9, but I'd probably take that and be happy with it.
This team as it is right now reminds me a lot of the post-Shaq Miami Heat. Superstar shooting guard, a couple of decent guys, and some "upside" guys who may pan out eventually. Mostly winning with scrappy defense and a superstar willing to carry the offense. When Wade is healthy, that team's basically a .520 or so squad. When he's not healthy, well, maybe it's a good night to go catch a movie. We're 22-13 right now. If we finish out the season playing .520 basketball, that's 25 more wins, or 47 total wins for the year. Some years that's good enough for the 7th or 8th seed. However....Now it's always a little risky to say when you've hit rock bottom, because so often there's still another surprise in store. But I just have to believe this is as close to rock bottom as we'll see this year. Rudy and Batum will definitely come back. Maybe Outlaw too. Bayless has shown glimpses of All-Star talent. Aldridge and Miller tend to start slow and find their grooves midseason. Blake is finally getting his three point shot back (without it he's worthless). Pendergraph and Cunningham are starting to look serviceable. If we start actually catching a few breaks, suddenly maybe we're better than the Heat and a .580 team instead, which translates to a 52 win season. In which case you're looking at maybe as high as a 5th or 6th seed. Anyway, the 60 wins I predicted at the beginning of the season is clearly out the door. But I'm a long way from conceding the playoffs entirely.
Which 9 are you putting down as Ls? Lakers, Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Memphis(back to back, they've been playing well), Dallas. MAYBE Philadelphia, because of our struggles with them. That would put us at 8-7, which, with our depleted roster, I would be alright with. Would put us at what, 30-20?
Portland could play .500 ball for the rest of the season and probably sneak into the playoffs. I am guessing they will win 4 or 5 of the 9 games which would be just fine with me.
My best guess is right now that the team does what a Miami Heat team from the old days would have done. That is to overachieve and play at a high level during the regular season and make the playoffs, but they will not have another gear to go into when they hit the playoffs, becaue they are already playing as well as they can.
I don't think fans can expect a whole lot with Howard as the starting center for the rest of the year.
I think you need to get less wins to get in the playoffs this year, if only for the fact that the bottom of the conference is no longer as crappy as it was last year. Memphis, Sacramento and OKC play much better basketball. This means, it seems, that there is greater parity between the haves and have-nots in the conference, so I suspect that 45-46 will get you in the playoffs this year.
I can't remember anybody who referred to themselves as "THE" and was as universally and readily identified as HCP. While I don't agree with your 20-30 prediction for the last 50 games (and missing the playoffs) I have to admit that you have reached the absolute pinnacle of fame. Everybody knows "Prince", "Madonna", "Pele'", "Meatloaf" . . . and now we add "THE" to the list. Remarkable.
I think LaMarcus is Part II of the disaster plan. Brandon has stepped up and has done what leaders do. I agree he can't do it alone, and my guess is Brandon knows it too. I'm sure there has been a sitdown with LMA telling him that he HAS to get down on the block, even if he doesn't want to.
I've said this a lot, but I really believe it. If you have a system, and everyone involved believes in that system, you will be more successful than the teams that either don't have as solid of a system or that don't have everyone within their system believing in that system. Portland has Brandon Roy. He's been healthy. Everyone knows what he's going to do and plays their roles accordingly. If this continues, Portland will win more games than lose. Only a few teams have better systems or similar systems with better players. Portland will make the Playoffs as long as Brandon stays relatively healthy for the majority of the season. If he goes down, we'd still likely play .500 ball IMO, as a combination of Rudy, Jerryd, and/or Patty could take over a similar role and we'd best the average to sub-average teams in the league. Brandon Roy is remarkable, but a lot of credit needs to go out to management, who has selected versatile, agreeable, skilled players for the past few off-seasons and to the coaching staff, who is using these versatile, agreeable, skilled players in ways that they can best help the team. That culture that Pritchard preaches about in every interview is truly the sixth man for this team.
