Really? That Detroit team had the best back court duo in the league and the number one post defender in the league. They had a motivated Rasheed Wallace. They had a decent bench. I think you are selling that team short if you think they didn't have a good roster. That roster was a defensive nightmare for opponents. Portlands roster as constructed right now isn't. Sure there may be some sort of line-up alchemy with your proposed roster that makes the sum way better then it's parts. But in the beginning of the season when a lot of guys were around it looked more a science experiment gone horribly wrong. As I said above, I want to watch a finals game in the Rose Garden. The likelihood that the current roster can get it done is very low. I want KP to do something to make those chances better. But I am not sure he can because I am not sure such a deal can be made. If you assume that Oden returns strong and that all the ways the team didn't function at the beginning of the season magically correct themselves then sure maybe that team gets to the finals. In case you have forgotten, here are the issues the team was unable to address before injuries postponed the resolution: Roy could not work with Oden. Neither could LMA. Webster was horrific off the bench. Outlaw was having a difficult time with limited minutes. Blake played a ton. Miller was ineffective. Rudy didn't know what his role was. Neither did Bayless. What about the above changes next season if they go into the year with the same roster. Wouldn't playing time issues get worse, since Pendergraph and Cunningham would be clamoring for minutes along with the rest?
We need to be patient and realize we aren't going to do squat in the playoffs this season. We need our health...next season. That is all we need.
I must be the only guy on here who doesn't want Tough Juice on my team at the cost of Rudy, Webster or Batum. I have no doubt that there are very good reasons many of you think he'd be the "perfect fit", and I wish that I saw it. But I have this bad feeling about Butler. Which is odd, since I really wanted the VC-for-RLEC rumor last year to be true. But giving up one of our young, defensive-minded wings for him? My take is that we need more perimeter defense, not less...especially for a 2nd option on offense. I mean, it didn't seem that in November we had too few options on offense--we had too many that couldn't be reconciled. And Webster and Batum weren't the problem. Now, my opinion on what is needed most is a 4/5, hopefully a defensive-minded one (or at least a good rebounder). Haywood, Okafor, Lee, Foster. The pipe dream I had before Joel was hurt was a trade with Minny that was built around Love for Rudy and Przy...since Love's blocked by Al Jefferson much like Rudy's blocked by Roy--either play out of position or sit. He's a rebounding beast and good outlet passer with a decent jumper. Joel could go back to Minny and play C next to Jeff's PF, and Rudy could step in at the 2 (helping with Rubio coming over, maybe?). But that dream now seems dead. Still, I think that Blake and Outlaw's EC's (coupled maybe with Przy if we take back a horrible contract or if it helps a team lower its tax) and perhaps ONE of either Bayless or Rudy helps out our logjam at the guard spots and helps with a position of need now and in the future. I like what JP's done when he's been healthy---I don't have as much hope for Dante, but the season is still young. I don't like giving up draft picks.
I don't see why we can't do a little damage in the playoffs. There've been plenty of upsets by a 7 or 8 seed. If nothing else, another series of playoff basketball can't help but grow this team.
I stopped reading right there. Where in what I said led you to think that I thought they didn't have a good roster? They had a fantastic roster. My point was is that it was a balanced roster. They didn't have your typical put-together roster. You stated that we don't have that championship-caliber second option. Many wouldn't have thought the way Detroit was structured that they had a typical first option, nor a second option. I firmly believe that once Aldridge, Batum, Bayless, and Oden mature and pair up with Roy, they'll match up extremely well with the elite. A few things about Aldridge. He went through a funk last season and came out of that well (PER of 19 at age 23). He's been injured. The dude will pull through just as he did last year as long as he can stay healthy. His role is to play away from the basket. It opens up the lane for Brandon. Lamarcus at 24. The dude is a quality second option even now.
I am a "typical Blazer fan". See, I do these things than are foreign to you like actually rooting for the Blazers to succeed. Clearly, you're no Blazer fan at all. Then again, we knew that already.
Have you ever seen what Niagra falls looks like from a half a mile upstream? It doesn't look like anything, but you can begin to make out the dull roar that it creates long before you ever dive over the edge. Where this team is at right now is kind of like that; floating along a half a mile up river, riding a record that says "hey we're not doing too bad, if we can just hold steady ..." The book is out on this team and the last couple of games have started to expose exactly how opposing teams plan to attack us in the middle, and any teams with a hint of an inside game are going to hammer us night after night until it stops working, and based on who we currently employ at center (a way past his prime Howard, and 6'9" second round pick rookie) I don't see that letting up any time soon. Furthermore, the comparison with Houston doesn't really wash for me since they still have an elite post defender in Chuck Hayes (undersized though he is) and play outstanding perimeter defense which doesn't leave their bigs as hung out to dry on dribble penetration as this Blazers team. I'm not happy about it, I'll still continue to watch and root be happy when they win, but it's not giving up on the season to recognize when something is about to cave in a little bit -- in fact it makes it a lot easier to take when your expectations aren't overly inflated.
Usually I agree with you, but I'm a bit more optimistic on our prospects. We may not make the playoffs, but I think this team has a lot more heart and grit than you give it credit for. First, help is on the way. Blake comes back which helps our shooting and perimeter defense. We'll get Nico back in a few weeks, and that will take some serious pressure off of our wing players. Roy has had to not only carry the offense, but defend some great players. Nico takes over the defensive load. Soon thereafter, we're getting Rudy back, and that is huge. It means that we have a true SG with size to spell Roy. Getting more bodies means we can practice better and we're not so freaking worn out. It also gives us more versatility in our lineups. If Webster has a bad game, we have to bring in Cunningham or run a three guard lineup. Soon, we can bring in Batum. Our three guard lineup can include both Roy and Fernandez. Second, our young players will get better. You say Chuck Hayes is an "elite post defender", but the Rockets didn't find it out until they were crushed by injuries. Who says Pendergraph isn't going to become that kind of defender? He was more highly regarded than Hayes. Cunningham--if he has to play more minutes--will better figure out the game. So will Mills. Third, our players will learn how to play small ball and adjust to the new reality. Right now, we're still feeling out our rotations and how players mesh. Aldridge is still playing like he has GO or Przy in the post. Howard will get more comfortable with spacing. Bayless will figure out his role on the team. We lost some huge pieces; we haven't fully adjusted. We still defend the perimeter like we have our centers to save us. There will be big, physical teams that dominate us. Okay, that sucks. We just have to get pounded and take it. The Clippers are a team like that. So is Memphis. The L*kers, of course. There are a couple of others. However, we can use this lineup to play with so many teams. Hell, we've proven it. This season has been heartbreaking because there are few rosters or organizations less deserving of this kind of bad luck, but I've loved watching this team. I love watching the development of these players and continue to believe it will serve us well next year when we're healthy.
what if it's your philosophy that midseason isn't the time to shake up your roster? That making moves now is generally disruptive to team chemistry? With all the sunshine KP spins I don't know if that's his view, but he has spoken to this and his actions seem to walk that talk. If that is the GM's view, making a midseason move probably isn't doing your best. Of course they are talking to anyone and everyone about a number of their players/assets. They might end up making a minor or even a major move if the right opportunity comes along... but with an eye on the offseason I'd guess KP ends up holding on to his cards. Blake and Outlaw potentially coming off of Portland's balance isn't a bad thing with the salary and lux tax figures coming down. Batum Greg and Rudy's potential here warrants keeping financial options open (Bayless I'm a step behind on). Being in the position to resign those guys when they're up for extensions after next season (even if they blow up) seems a viable choice/hedge to me. I don't expect PA to spend deep into lux tax land. Roy's help is injured, just as Roy himself was early on his career. There is still plenty of time to see whats what with the in house youngins before the contractual crossroads are reached, and thats seasons before Brandon should hit his prime. patience STOMP
I said in an earlier post that I thought an young center who is strong defensively and rebounding would help us most now AND in the future. Then I tried to find one. Ideally would be a guy like Gortat but Orlando seems to have zero interest in trading him. Then i looked at Solomon Jones, Ryan Hollins and Josh Boone, three guys who supposedly play with passion and have defensive potential, but going to 82games, they all three have horrendous numbers. Then I noticed Andris Biedrins had just come back from an injury. Any chance we could get him. He is very intense, tremendous rebounder and good shot blocker. Supposedly very hard worker. Would Blake, Outlaw, Rudy and a first round pick get him? Of course if Oden came back 100% we could have a 10 million dollar a year backup. In that case we could maybe keep him for a year to see if Oden holds up and then trade him (Biedrins, or maybe Oden if Biedrins fit the team better?).
That they've been competitive and "stolen" a few wins speaks to that, but ultimately there's a huge talent and 'length' gap that is going to be their undoing over the course of the next 40 odd games -- that grit and heart will probably account for about 5 to 10 more wins than it otherwise would for a team with less mental toughness (say for instance like the Wizards or the Warriors) We're getting help which should take some of the wear and tear off of Brandon, making it more likely that he's able to play most of the rest of the season at a high level of effectiveness, but we're still getting help at the wrong spots in my opinion. Rudy, Blake and even Nico don't make it easier for us to defend the post and only one of them appreciably changes our perimeter defense. I don't see versatility in the lineups being the issue I guess, I see it as an overall lack of interior bulk, lack of rebounding and nobody who can play "goalie" at the rim -- all major components to this team's success in the past couple of years. This isn't Hayes' first rodeo so to speak, he's a veteran. Of course you'd expect some of our young guys to get incrementally better -- maybe in a few years Pendergraph becomes that good, but it's highly unlikely to happen in a rookie year. Playing small isn't the team's issue, they did it quite a bit in end of game situations last year with LMA at the five, Travis at the 4, Roy at the 3, etc. And frankly we still defend the perimeter like we do because we lack players with either elite defensive skills or a defensive mindset. I suppose they could begin to really pick up the slack, but banking on it seems kind of like wishcasting at this point. I agree. There will be teams we match up more favorably with, but unfortunately we've already played the softest part of our schedule in November; there are quite a few very athletic, and/or long teams left to be played -- enough that I think it will be extremely difficult to play anywhere near .500 ball for the rest of the season. I still think this is probably a 42 or 43 win team, but in the West that's just not going to be enough. I totally agree with this, this season if nothing else should help serve as a reminder that nothing is guaranteed and that it takes extremely hard work to make the leap from 'surprising playoff team' to 'true contender'
I took your post as saying you didn't believe at first glance that Pistons team was a championship caliber team. If I misunderstood I appologize. I was simply pointing out that the Pistons team you used as an example is far superior to the current lineup. This includes durability as well as ability. Oden, if he can remain injury free, will become a much better player then Ben Wallace. But that is a huge if. Maybe if a bunch of guys make huge leaps in ability then Portland will be far closer. That is a big risk. I am really hoping you are correct about LMA. His tendancy to take fade away 15 foot jumpers and shoots 1 foot inside the 3 point line don't inspire a whole lot of confidence though. Defensively it appears he still has a long ways to go, though that side of the ball is damn hard to judge effectively.
No worries. My point I was trying to make was there isn't just one way to build a championship team, but many varied ways. We're accustomed to the two-superstar blueprint with a one-two punch. When you don't have those potent ingredients you have to instead build a bit differently. I agree that Roy needs a superb second offensive option. I still feel Aldridge can be that. I also feel that it's the role he plays for McMillan that gives him the "soft" tag. I'm beginning to see that McMillan needs to be a bit more fluid. I'm really hoping we see Aldridge moved to the five. I think especially given the line up that this would not only serve the team well, but give Aldridge a role that will inflate his stats and get him on the All Star team. Maybe it's too late though for that.
