The bulls early record and margin of defeat takes reflects a tough schedule, injuries to key players, and shitty coaching. Hollinger's predictions don't. The bulls will finish a lot better if they stay healthy and Vinny doesn't fuck it up. They've had big second half surges in at least 4 of the last 6 years. They should be on a 7 game winning streak right now and above .500 if Vinny wasn't such a moron.
Interestingly enough, they played the good teams pretty close early and lost to shitty teams by a lot. So that sort of balances out. On the other hand, I finally got to looking at the schedule and it's not exactly easy from here on out. Here's my guess of where they end up: Code: Jan 4 2010 Oklahoma City Thunder L Jan 5 2010 @ Charlotte Bobcats L Jan 8 2010 @ Milwaukee Bucks L Jan 9 2010 Minnesota Timberwolves W Jan 11 2010 Detroit Pistons W Jan 14 2010 @ Boston Celtics L Jan 15 2010 Washington Wizards W Jan 18 2010 @ Golden State Warriors W Jan 20 2010 @ Los Angeles Clippers L Jan 22 2010 @ Phoenix Suns L Jan 23 2010 @ Houston Rockets L Jan 25 2010 @ San Antonio Spurs L Jan 27 2010 @ Oklahoma City Thunder L Jan 29 2010 @ New Orleans Hornets L Feb 2 2010 Los Angeles Clippers W Feb 3 2010 @ Philadelphia 76ers W Feb 5 2010 @ Atlanta Hawks L Feb 6 2010 Miami Heat L Feb 9 2010 @ Indiana Pacers W Feb 10 2010 Orlando Magic L Feb 16 2010 New York Knickerbockers W Feb 17 2010 @ New York Knickerbockers L Feb 19 2010 @ Minnesota Timberwolves W Feb 20 2010 Philadelphia 76ers W Feb 22 2010 @ Washington Wizards W Feb 24 2010 Indiana Pacers W Feb 26 2010 Portland Trail Blazers L Feb 27 2010 @ Indiana Pacers W Mar 1 2010 Atlanta Hawks L Mar 4 2010 Memphis Grizzlies L Mar 6 2010 Dallas Mavericks L Mar 9 2010 Utah Jazz L Mar 11 2010 @ Orlando Magic L Mar 12 2010 @ Miami Heat L Mar 16 2010 @ Memphis Grizzlies L Mar 17 2010 @ Dallas Mavericks L Mar 19 2010 Cleveland Cavaliers L Mar 20 2010 @ Philadelphia 76ers W Mar 22 2010 Houston Rockets L Mar 25 2010 Miami Heat L Mar 27 2010 New Jersey Nets W Mar 28 2010 @ Detroit Pistons L Mar 30 2010 Phoenix Suns L Apr 2 2010 @ Washington Wizards W Apr 3 2010 Charlotte Bobcats L Apr 6 2010 Milwaukee Bucks W Apr 8 2010 Cleveland Cavaliers L Apr 9 2010 @ New Jersey Nets W Apr 11 2010 @ Toronto Raptors L Apr 13 2010 Boston Celtics L Apr 14 2010 @ Charlotte Bobcats L Code: Current Total Home Road W 14 11 3 L 17 6 11 Guess Total Home Road W 18 9 9 L 33 15 18 Total Total Home Road W 32 20 12 L 50 21 29 I dunno if we make the playoffs with that or not, but it doesn't look very encouraging to me. In a nutshell, our home games tend to be against better teams, and we've got a few more road games, which we're terrible at.
I think you're selling them way short. If they play like they've been playing, they go 3-1 or 4-0 this week. Of course, if they suffer more injuries, or VDN regresses again, they could crash and burn. But if they don't they do much better after the break. And I think they challenge for the 6th seed at least.
Well, they won't be going 4-1 or 4-0 this week. Two games left. A trip up to Milwaukee to play a rested Bucks team on Friday night, then we get a very winnable game at home vs. the TerribleWolves (who play in Indy the night before, themselves).
Yeah, don't ever underestimate how bad Vinny can be. No adjustments last night, then why would you have Rose taking the ball out with a minute left? I'm trying to decide if I'm done with this team until they fire Vinny.
0-3 as I expected. I think the Bulls are playing to about their level right now. They're about the same kind of team as Charlotte or Milwaukee, but they were playing at home and/or with more rest.
At .412, we're on pace foor a 33.8 win season. And we're behind the Knicks again, who are at 15-20, .429.
Entertainingly enough, we were 14-20 at this point last season too. Of course, we were 14-20 last season with Kurt hurt, Noah in terrible shape, Deng gimpy, Tyrus clueless, and Noc/Gooden instead of Salmons/Miller. Down the stretch we went 27-21 by: * Going to Tyrus and for a short stretch, letting him play without looking over his shoulder * Getting a healthy Kirk back * Noah playing himself into shape * Making a "win" now trade that cost us tax space to even consider re-signing Gordon, but bringing in three better fitting, more useful players than those who left. I say that to outline the factors that led to our surge last year. What factors can we point to and say they're going to lead to obvious improvements going forward? * Kirk's been healthy * Deng's been healthy, and apparently is no longer healthy. His play is declining and the doctor's prescription for his injury was 6-8 weeks off. * Tyrus is not being given the run he got last year * Noah has played the best ball of his career All this is to say I don't see the factors now that helped us last year. Unless we're going to make a trade that takes on a considerable amount of salary for next year. I suspect if we did that, we could certainly add this year's equivalents of Miller and Salmons and possibly do pretty well. Even that would be quite a gamble though. I tend to think it's not gonna happen.
We're 14-20 without the kind of trade the invigorated us last season. Or better put, with the trade made last season in place.
You may be right, but the bulls have the pieces to make a much more impactful trade this year. Also, Kirk hasn't been healthy this year, he's already missed games and has other nagging injuries, and he could definitely shoot better at least. Tyrus has been inconsistent, but he has played longer minutes when he played well. But it's on him to not settle for 20 footers since every opponent's scouting report seems to revolve around getting him to take those. Anything the bulls get for Miller will be a pretty significant improvement. This is still an entirely mediocre team that is only a small step away from being the 6th seed. But they are also a twisted ankle away from being the 11th seed. I do think they have until the trading deadline to figure out which one they will be though because nobody is going to run away with anything.
I dunno that the Bulls have any more pieces to make a trade this year than they did last year. * Miller is probably a more valuable expiring than Gooden was (as an expiring), but it's debatable. Miller's deal is just bigger. * Tyrus probably has quite a bit less value around the league than last year. * Kirk and Salmons certainly haven't distinguished themselves. I think Kirk's value in particular is down. Last year he was just back from his injury at the deadline and playing relatively well. This year he's got a track record of poor play. * Noah obviously has more value, but we ought not be trading him. * Deng has played quite a bit better, and though I'd like to move him due to injury concerns, his recent injury, I'm guessing, is going to make that fear both prophetic and difficult to get around when trading him.
The Bulls have at least $24M in expiring contracts they could deal (James, Miller, Thomas), but they'd be screwed this summer if they dealt those contracts for guys like Salmons and Miller. Kirk's value seems limited to me for several reasons. He was prized by other teams in the offseason before those who needed a PG found a better one elsewhere. His play has been poor (9.4 PER). He's banged up a lot (what ever happened to "no excuses?"). He's 30 years old at a skill position that can use young legs. And every team that scouts him knows to let him have the open 20 footer (he can't shoot). Deng's still young, but also is consistently banged up, if not missing chunks of the season. He's never been one of the top 15 SFs in the league, and right now he's not even as good as we expect him to be. A team that has 3 established players might consider Deng if they're thin at SF or need a starter, but he's got a huge price tag. Thomas is one of those minor leaguers we're training to be called up by a big league team.
Rumors are still circulating that teams want Hinrich, like the Caron Butler deal last week. Hinrich has a lot more value than you guys want to admit, mostly because he's playing out of position at the 2. The bulls will have no trouble moving him if they want to.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/clubhouse.html Bulls next 5 games: 1/14 @Boston L 1/15 Washington W 1/18 @Golden State L 1/20 @LA Clippers L 1/22 @Phoenix L (These are "favored in 1 of next 5 games") However, the Bulls play in Boston, then fly home for that Washington game as the 2nd game of a back to back. Washington is in turmoil after Arenas was suspended, and wasn't doing all that well with him on the team. Washington is favored to win 1 of its next 5 games also. Boston is favored to win 5 of its next 5 games. Golden State is favored to win 3 of its next 5 games. The 17-19 Clippers are favored to win 2 of its next 5 games. Phoenix is favored to win 4 of its next 5 games.
