Alternatively: why did Blake have his foot on the line when shooting that three at half-time? Or: why did the Blazers cough up a nine point lead in the closing minutes?
It's like who does the jump ball, it's just a role, and when you have designated guys (especially guys who don't get bothered by pressure) there's no question when the time comes whose responsibility it is. I have no problem with Dre taking taking technical fouls as a career 80%+ free throw shooter.
This is a good theory. The role idea makes some sense. Of course, I think it should be Rudy's role, but its the best answer I've heard.
Maybe it would be if Rudy hadn't missed a month and a half of games All I'm saying is that sometimes certain players are better in that particular situation (standing there all alone) than others, regardless of their career or season FT%. I wish I could find statistics for it, but I'd be willing to bet his technical FT% is probably higher than his career 'regular' FT%
I was at the game and a few people mentioned this. Andre is an 80+% guy, so I didn't give it much thought. I was boggled with replacing Rudy at the 1:42 mark with Blake. Rudy was having one of his best games as a Blazer. He looked more comfortable out there than maybe I've ever seen him. He made the right passes, he was getting to the basket (which we haven't seen much) and he was getting rebounds/loose balls like crazy. I'm not banging on Blake, and this isn't a hindsight 20/20. At the time Rudy came out for Blake I said "What is he thinking?" to my buddy. Rudy seemed to have it all going last night. Blake seems to excel when you have a Roy or Bayless who can break down a defense forcing Blake's defender to leave him open. Last night, that wasn't happening. Miller couldn't get a step on anybody all night, and Bayless wasn't even in the game. They just didn't have any playmakers out there until they put Bayless in the 3 seconds left. It was just ugly to watch. Every possession was a struggle to even get a shot off.
No, he's proven to be close enough to Rudy in making free throws that it literally doesn't matter who takes one free throw, between them. You're obsessing over a decision that didn't matter, because the percentage difference is so small as to be essentially irrelevant in one shot.
I disagree. He shoots well enough better that he hits one out of 20 more than Miller, which, when your in a tight game, you put on the line. You play the numbers. The Celtics have guys that shoot in the 80's too. Do you ever see any of them put on the line when Ray Allen is in the game? He shoots 90+ percent but is only about .050 better than them. But according to you, that is splitting hairs.
You're right about one thing...I am obsessing about it now! I don't actually think it's a huge deal....my original post was just to try & figure out how they are selected. But I'm surprised at how much opposition I've gotten. I think the percentage difference is pretty big though. Brace yourselves, now I'm really about to obsess. It's a 4% difference. Miller makes 82%, Rudy 86%. Sure, this is a non issue when Miller makes it, but not when he misses. Figure they take 100 shots, both making their first 82. At this point, Miller should miss his final 18. But Rudy still has 4 made free throws in him. 4/18 = 22%. So for every Miller miss, we have a 22% chance of Rudy making it. If it were up to me, I'd take a 22% chance of having one extra point last night.
That isn't how percentages work. A 4% difference is a 4% difference, it doesn't become a 22% difference by looking only at the misses. The huge amount of successes in common by both players also matter. You had a 4% chance at an extra 1 point last night, or an expected value of .04 points. Technically, a difference, but such a tiny one that it really didn't matter.
Assuming Fernandez was feeling 100%, I'd have put him on the line, not Miller. I'm simply saying it didn't matter much. And yes...for a single free throw, putting Ray Allen on the line or someone who shoots 4% less well wouldn't matter very much. If it were a competition to shoot 100 or 1000 free throws, then it would matter quite a bit.
What about in a game where you lose by one point? Was it worth it then? If you were in Vegas and gambling, would you try to win by going with the second best card hand available to you, rather than go for the hand that gives you the best chance to win? See the thing you don't seem to get, is the fact that little mistakes like this, add up. Little mistakes that the coaching staff is paid a lot of money not to make.
Worth what? As I said, I'd put Fernandez on the line. Even in a 1 point game, an expected 0.04 points is not that significant. And if Miller is more poised when shooting such free throws (no idea, personally, if he is or not) then that could very easily wash out that tiny expected difference from percentage. In other words, I think mistakes are made every game, but this one (if it was one) didn't have any real effect.
Ok so you are going to sit there and tell me that it had no effect when we lost by one point. What the hell is your definition of an effect? The facts are, that Nate and his coaching staff make mistakes like this all the time. I have seen them repeatedly send a poorer shooter to the line for technical free throws. Just like I have seen them repeat the mistake of having a short inbounder throw in the inbounds pass on a critical play near the end of the game. The jobs of the coaching staff, is to put the team in the best position to win, and even if a guy is a half a percent higher in shooting percentage, he is still a better shot than the guy behind him, and that gives you a higher percentage chance to win, even if miniscule. The job is to get to put the team in position for the best chance to win. If you are making decisions which are not, and you lose the game, then you aren't doing your job.
right, the job is to put the team in the best position to win. having shot the best free throw percentage thus far over the season does not necessarily mean you are the player most likely to make a particularly important free throw. can you see how it's possible that those two things could be different?
