The season's half over and there have been a few surprises in the race for the crucial likely first round loss that many won't notice and most won't see. The top four (Celts, Cavs, Hawks, and Magic) have stayed separated. One of the interesting things is that there is a second group that have broken off. The Raptors, Heat, and surprisingly to some the Bobcats are all right around .500 and clearly a step above the rest barring injury or trade. I don't see any of them falling back to the pack or being caught from behind, except for maybe the the current eighth seed. The eighth and final spot is still up for grabs to anybody but the nets. Currently held by the bulls, pretty much everybody but the nets still have a shot if they play good basketball. However, the chance that any of those teams put together the 3 threes weeks of good basketball is slim. The breakdown: Current 8th: The Bulls have shown that if they get solid contributions from 1-8 they have the talent to beat 25-27 of the teams in the league. However, they've also shown that if they only have 7 guys show up they are 99% likely to lose. The maddening inconsistency means they can't get to .500, but it means they have a 2 game cushion for the 8th seed and are as close to 6th as they are to 9th. Pretty amazing given all of the blowouts and discussions of how bad things were. It could still go either way, but if they remain healthy and don't dump the salary of Hinrich or trade Tyrus away I see them in the playoffs, maybe even moving up after a post all-star break run. Assuming Vinny doesn't fuck it up, of course. 9th: Milwaukee suffered a loss when they lost Redd to the same knee injury again. They have the best combination of talent and coaching to get it done. Stackhouse might be enough of a fill in for them to get it done. 10th: Knicks aren't going anywhere. They are also doing everything they can to dump the salary they need to get in position to offer two max deals, and that means their rotation will probably change significantly down the stretch. If they add somebody like Stoudemire or Boozer, they could improve talentwise, but I don't see them gelling quickly enough to get into the playoffs unless one of the teams ahead of them stumble. And no they aren't in a better position than anybody else. I'd rather have the nets roster and a shot at Wall in the draft than the pipe dream of getting two max free agents to sign in NY.... 11th: Detroit is still frisky, and still completely unbalanced roster-wise, and still not going anywhere fast. Do you give up your pick this year to get somebody like Rudy Gay? It might work, or it might be one more guy looking for shots replacing one of the few guys who could contribute without needing too many shots. At least they won't try and play Gay at SG. 12th: Also frisky, also not going anywhere. Are they the Kansas City Royals of the NBA now? A once proud franchise that can't win games anymore and can't make enough money to keep the talent they need to win? Kind of a sad situation, but good for the bulls, maybe. 13th: Washington probably couldn't have come out better from the whole Arenas gun debacle unless something morbid had happened to him. They still have to decide if they are go to try and void Arenas' contract, but if they do, with a few decent trades they could actually be free agent players this summer with an entirely new roster. Not a bad thing given how poorly the current roster performed and how far over the cap they are. But barring a miracle, not making the playoffs. 14th: Philly is another cautionary tale of overspending on free agents, or even your own talent. Now they are talking about moving Iggy to get out from under the pile of contracts. Not going anywhere fast, and not good. Will start tanking soon to get the second most ping pong balls.
That would seem to make us halfway to the glorious 8th seed. The Bulls have put together a nice 3 game winning streak against quality teams on the road. I'd say this is the first stretch of ball this season where I really thought they were playing well. If we keep this up, we very well could get there. I'm skeptical but edging toward taking a sip of kool-aid.
1 game out of 5th after another impressive road win over the Thunder. Four in a row on the road is a hell of a fluke. Rose looks better and better.
Really big win for the Bulls tonight over Miami. Milwaukee looks like they aren't going to fade, or at least going to win often enough that whoever gets the eighth seed won't be able to back in. They are taking advantage of the weak part of their schedule, something the bulls can't seem to do. But now Miami is the team on the hot seat for a little while at least.
