I'm getting the impression that nobody (of any consequence) will be traded before the offseason. Why more this year than usual? Well (since you ask) because of the upcoming possible lockout. The teams wanting to trade are overwhelmingly teams that want to ditch huge salaries. But (a) in this shitty economy teams are much less prepared to take on big salaries even than usual, and (b) even those that can afford to don't know if a hard cap will come and cripple them if they do. So, my money is on the Amare's and the Iguodalas and the Butlers staying put.
The trade deadline usually comes and goes with a ton of hype but no action. I expect this year to be no different.
I am not sure Butler will stay put. There seems to be a lot of interest from teams in Texas, and when they want something they usually get it sooner or later unless somebody stops them from doing it. Unfortunately for Dallas, the last thing Washington probably wants is Josh Howard.
I think everybody knows Howard is better than that but is in their doghouse since he had several incidents last year with the press. He also is recovering from injury if I remember right. I can't remember them all, but for a while there it was pretty much "what has that dipshit josh howard done this time?".
I don't think the big name FAs this summer are moving, either. With BRI coming down, the cap will be something like $53M, cutting about $4M out of whatever cap space teams appear to have now. On top of that, the max salaries are based upon 25% (players with 6 years experience), 30% (players with 7+), etc., of the cap. So the MAX contract will be lower than it is now. Most of those FAs have opt out clauses and will make about $16.5M next season if they stick. That'd be Bosh, Amare, Wade, LeBron... If they jump ship, they'd be taking less. Their only hope is to be traded or to resign with their existing teams, who'd use their bird rights to increase their salaries. Trades? Why would anyone trade a Wade in the first place (yeah, bigtime players have been traded rarely in the past)? Even if they felt like they were going to lose him, expiring contracts and much lesser quality players aren't an enticement - realize a Wade walking means a $16.5M contract basically expired. So may as well play him until he leaves rather than playing some scrubs until they're not extended. Make sense? And of course a lower LT threshold goes along with the lower BRI, and the new CBA coming up, so teams may not be willing to make it worth those FAs' while.
