Fish or cut bait.

And Oden was a 23.4 player after his microfracture surgery - a much more seriois injury than his current broken knee cap. And, that was at 21 with less than a year's worth of NBA playing experience. He was among the league leaders in FG%, TRB%, BLK% and PER, Do you really think he's already peaked and this latest injury will turn him from a 23.4 PER dominant force to a 15 PER also ran at the age of 22?

BNM

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hillgr01.html

dude is 37 years old. It's my strong impression that most every player's production tails off when they're into their late 30s. That he's still playing (let alone starting at the ultra athletic SF spot) is very much against the odds for a guy of his age... is there an older starter in the league that didn't get their by default (like Juwan)?

STOMP

 

I actually think those crazy things and his on the edge of dirty play are more of a reason to get him. You are either a team that has those qualities, or a team that is victimized by them. Dennis Rodman was fully crazy and a very dirty player. But he won a hell of a lot of rings because that was his edge on the court.

 

Did I ever say that Oden had peaked, or that he will become a 15 PER player at the age of 22? I want to keep the guy and I have posted that since my time here, but Grant Hill or Ilguaskas aren't exactly great examples for keeping Oden, just as they aren't good example for trading Oden.

 

I wouldn't say that was dirty play. The guy threw a knee at him, so he decided to give him a forearm shiver. I would have done the same thing in that situation.

 

I think that most of the teams that deal with injured players are hardest hit by the void they create, not necessarily the statistics, and in that fashion, they are actually very good examples as for argument to trade him away. Both of them caused their teams who were depending on them to carry a big part of the load, to suffer for years with them mostly out of the lineup due to injury.

 

Dude, read what you wrote:

"Grant Hill was an elite player before his injuries. He's a 15 PER player post-injuries. If Oden is going to be mediocre once he gets healthy, then it may be time to cut bait.

That's EXACTLY what I responded to.

BNM

 

That's a logical point. My take on the purpose of this thread was whether or not waiting for Oden is in the best interest of the franchise. If he gets another major injury, his trade value will be near zilch. It's interesting to think about, and as I posted earlier in this thread, part of m wonders if the Blazers are discussing different options in hushed tones.

 

you've suggested that Oden's best days athletically may be behind him, that he might be just mediocre once he returns... very little in the history of hoops supports these possibilities being what we're likely to see transpire.

I don't see why they aren't good examples of how broken bones do heal and guys can return to the pounding of hoops. They are much older so expectations for their production should be lowered accordingly, but certainly they had the exact same sort of critics who didn't believe that they would ever make it back like we hear from Greg's detractors on a daily basis. Since GO will be 23 next season and this is something he's expected to make it fully back from, the projections for his production should still be on the rise.

STOMP

 

A little late to the discussion, but here's my take on this "rumor" (use the word extremely loosely as I agree that it'd never happen in a million years.)

There are only 2 scenarios where the Blazers willingly make this trade, and as you'll see, both involve extremely unlikely circumstances AND are highly unlikely that Sacramento would also agree to them.

Agreeable Scenario #1: The Blazers would agree to this trade if they somehow KNEW, beyond ALL REASONABLE DOUBT that G.O.'s career will never be the same and that he is, in FACT, "injury prone". If you could somehow show me irrefutible PROOF that he'll never reach any sort of heights that we all hoped he'd achieve, then yes, they'd move on and take what they can get for him. This deal might not be the ideal time to "sell high" but under this scenario, it's probably not the worst offer we'd recieve either.

Problem #1: Why the hell would Sacto want busted goods in Greg?
Problem #2: Doctors are routinely baffled by people who wake up from multiple year comas after being thought to be "lost causes", paralyzed people, told they'll never walk again not only walk but some have even returned to competition. The body is a mystery that even at our top levels of science still does not fully understand. There is absolutely ZERO way that anyone could tell you, with 100% unyielding certainty (with the obvious exception of Greg being deciest) that he wouldn't be able to return to play acceptable basketball.

Agreeable Scenario #2: Sacto wins the lottery and still wants to trade Thompson and the pick for G.O.

In this scenario, the Blazers get John Wall, probably the most NBA ready talent (at a position of need noless) since Lebron, and who knows before him. Wall, like GO could very well be a crutial piece to title runs in our future. Additionally, his presence would make players like Bayless, Rudy, Miller, etc. more expendable, which means that we'd be able to use our depth and talent to return another big man -- one who hopefully WON'T be "injury prone".

Problem w/ this trade is that I still can't see how or why Sacto wouldn't want Wall. Seems like he and Ty Evans would work very well together in a backcourt.

Those are the absolutely ONLY ways I'd do this specific scenario. As I said, ain't gonna happen...

 

You are making up an argument that I never made. Where did I say Oden would be mediocre? Why? That said, isn't it possible that his best days athletically may be behind him?

A counter point could be that it may be years before Oden is healthy enough to be consistently productive. If that is the case (I'm not saying it will be), is it in the best interest of the organization to wait years for that to happen, or would it make more sense to try and get some more immediate help by using Oden in a trade? As I posted, I want Oden to stay and to be healthy, but I think some of you are taking an either/or position. There is a lot of gray involved for me with regard to Oden and how his career here will play out over time.

 

Right here:

BNM

 

Touche, but I was replying to STOMP's assertion that Grant Hill was an argument for keeping Oden. I don't expect him to be a mediocre player, but since Grant Hill is one, I was assuming in that hypothetical that Oden would be one as well.

 

BNM already linked the quote. Yes, most anything is possible including Greg's best athletic days being behind him. Extremely unlikely, but possible.

Unless someone is clairvoyant there is no way of knowing whats going to happen with the health of any of the players. About the best guessing that can be done to project the future is to look at the general trends of the masses and the relative health of the individuals. Greg's busted kneecap is projected to be healed by the end of this season not years from now. If we're going to consider the extremely unlikely, it's possible Jerryd Bayless grows a foot between now and the next training camp and creates a real logjam mess of how to keep Portland's many centers happy.... omg! what are we going to do

STOMP

 

Fair enough. Recent history shows that Oden gets injured, and that the injuries cause him to miss significant chunks of a season. Nobody knows what the future holds. Hopefully it isn't what we've seen in the past. I also don't get the Bayless comparision, but I'm sure there was a point. There really is no right or wrong answer on Oden, since nobody I know can predict the future.

 

You know, I keep asking variations of the same question - and I can't get a straight answer. When? When do people admit it is time to pull the plug? If Oden has a Joel P type career, is that enough for you? That scenario is at least as likely as him suddenly becoming a reliable building block.

No, none of us can predict the future, etc, etc. We can, however, learn from the past. We have 3 years of data that says that Oden is a huge risk.

I'm done. I am sick of this argument.

 

If he wasn't 22 years old and a possible senior in college right now I'd agree with you. Instead, he's young as shit and still very much worth the time considering his latest injury isn't very serious at all.

If Oden was riddled with injuries in college and came out everyone on this forum would want to take a flier on him, and so would everyone else in the NBA.

You're entitled to your opinion I guess.

 

BTW, some of you need to go back and reread the first post.

The question before the house was whether you would trade Oden for the *Kings'* pick. Not the 30th pick, or the 20th pick, or the 15th pick. A top 6 pick, with a reasonable shot at the top 3.

Either course is a gamble - but which is the lesser gamble? Sorry, but I really can't conceive of anybody saying keeping Oden is the better gamble!

 

That's because you don't seem to value what a potentially healthy Greg Oden can do for the Blazers. You're so frustrated you aren't allowing yourself to see the other side. You're like one of those people you have to tell to go cool off before you can have a rational conversation.