This is the current topic of discussion on 95.5. Going into the season, the general tenor of expectations was that Portland should be able to win the NW division, be a top-2 seed, and potentially challenge the Lakers for conference supremacy. Clearly those expectations took huge hits with the injuries, but now... At C, we have Camby providing the kind of defense and rebounding we hoped for from Greg--plus better BBIQ--being backed by Juwan Howard who is significantly more of an offensive threat than Joel; At PF, we have Dante Cunningham off the bench in place of Travis Outlaw, providing better rebounding and more heady play than the Catfish ever offered; At SF, Batum has emerged to become exactly what we hoped he could be, if not more; At PG, Miller has finally adapted his game to this team, pushing pace like he likes to, but controlling TO's like Nate insists; With all these evolutions, is it time to return to our previous expectation levels--not in terms of final record, but in terms of playoff performance? If not, what is the biggest difference between what we were expecting pre-season vs what we have now?
Huh? Not to derail your thread but Greg has a great BB IQ and it's been evident from day one. He's also been a top rebounder and defender while on the court. Basically, what you are saying is that you'd prefer Camby to Oden at this point. I bet you are in a very small minority on that one.
No, not quite. Oden (when healthy) is a superior offensive player, and with his size, he's very intimidating, even when not blocking shots. BUT, Camby is every bit the shot blocker that Oden is, was 2nd in the league in rebounding when we traded for him, is probably the best passing big man in the league, is less turnover-prone, and isn't as prone to silly fouls as Greg was/is. Oden overall had a greater positive impact on the team when he was playing well, but the difference between the two isn't really that vast.
I think Portland stands a better chance than any other 5-8 seed of advancing to the second round, provided we don't land on the 8th seed and have to face the Lakers.
I disagree, and so do the PER's. Besides, going into the season expectations were so high not only because of Oden, but the whole Oden/Przybilla tandem. A tandem of Camby/Howard is clearly a step down. Anyway, the team as it is now isn't a 60 win-quality lineup like it could have been with a healthy Oden, Przybilla and Batum. But if our current configuration were to play a full season together and stay reasonably healthy, it probably wins 54 or 55 or so games.
So then, rather than argue about Camby/Howard v Oden/Przybilla (thanks Pontius!), let's get back to the original question (or a slight modification thereof). Should we be changing our playoff expectations to be more in-line with those of a 54-55 win team, rather than remaining in a 48-win-team mindset?
I am with Mook on this one. This team is only in the bottom 4 because of injuries - and if it comes into the playoffs on a roll, they are more likely to upset the HCA opponent than the other 3 in the bottom 4 - but, HCA is a big deal - and unless the Blazers luck into a matchup - they are more likely than not out after the first round.
Remember how we went into the playoffs on a roll last year? We had one of the very best point differentials and a great winning record over the previous month or so. Then... splat. I have this stupid theory: when the Blazers are playing really well going into the playoffs, it's a bad omen. I remember how PJ Carlesimo actually always had the Blazers peaking when they went into the playoffs - only to implode in the first round. It's as if they didn't have another gear to go up to, while everyone else could step it up. Contrast with Dunleavy's teams: they tended to stumble and flounder so that they were completely dismissed (particularly the JR Rider team that faced the Timberwolves) but won at least one series.
On paper they looked poised for a run, but I'm not sure they have the 'swagger' to get to that 'kickin' ass and takin' names' threshold of play; they've crushed some tomato cans lately, which can't hurt confidence, but I think we'll know better where this team's collective confidence level is when they go in to the Pepsi Center on Sunday.
Last year's team was also pretty lousy vs. the other top teams in the West if I recall, and Houston was maybe one of the worst matchups we could have drawn ... I'm not saying they should have won a first round series, but I'm not sure if there's much to take away from a young team's first trip to the rodeo.
with two starters + Rudy back and the Center spot shored up it doesn't come as a big shocker to me that the club has been winning lately... my expectations were already heightened. Here's to staying healthy and crushing some Pepsi cans STOMP
No, not yet for me. My expectations at the beginning of the year were significantly higher than they are right now, even with the recent surge against lottery teams. This could change, but there were still long stretches against these lottery teams where they looked God-awful, especially on offense. There was a stretch against Indiana (halfway through the 2nd and into the 3rd quarter) where the Blazers couldn't score. They were playing a much smaller team that gives up a ton of points and yet they kept settling for jump shots and kept fighting the shot clock. Indiana just sucked equally, so no harm done. And then there's the first half of the Memphis game. We play like that against Denver and we get routed like OKL. I've always maintainted that the one guy who would have the most impact on our post-season success is Greg Oden, and well, he aint around. That said, the addition of veterans like Miller, Howard, and Camby will definitely help. And if you're asking in a roundabout way if being healthy influences my expectations... uh, yeah. But the west is deep, and we've done nothing (yet) to make me believe we'd have a chance of upsetting the Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, or Jazz in the first round. If we can luck into playing Phoenix, OKL, or the Spurs then I think we'd have a pretty good chance.
No, I don't agree. Batum is coming along but not quite there yet. He was shaky last night until he finally got a bucket then he settled down. The backup guards need to continue to gel and develope that chemistry needed to play relaxed. Last night was another good step forward, but now they will get tested against Denver. We will see how they have progressed. We are making good strides right now since we have finally committed to the young players. The question is, can we gel enough by end of season.
The 1976-77 team is the exception to that rule. We started off slowly and got better month-by-month. By March, we were a steamroller. I think we lost only three times that month and even less in April.
Camby may be the best replacement we could have gotten, but he's a very different player than GO or Przy. This team was built with the idea that LMA would pull his guy out, and our two centers would bang and dominate underneath. When we had those two last year, our rebounding differential was among the highest in the league. Camby prefers to block shots from the weak side and likes being around the FT line rather than at the post. I think we'll be competitive in the first round. If we win a round, we will have exceeded my expectations.
Since I consider Camby a significant downgrade at center from a healthy Oden, mostly due to offense and man defense, I'd say that the team is probably closer to a "true talent" 50-55 win team, rather than the 60+ win team that I'd have expected a fully healthy squad to be. But as has been mentioned, they won't have home court, which is a big deal. They'll be a 50-55 win team playing every series without home court advantage...so it's unlikely they'll make major noise in the playoffs, sadly.
Home court means nothing this year for the Blazers. They have lost too many games for it to mean anything but having fan support for some extra energy. I am just happy the team committed to Rudy/Bayless playing, so that they can actually get meaningful playing time before the playoffs happen, rather than what happened last year, when Nate freaked out and tried to insert Rudy into the starting lineup against Houston.
I'd have to go back and read what my expectations were at the beginning of the season, but I think I expected the Blazers to get homecourt advantage in the first round (again) - but win their first series, and possibly the second round series, as well. In the thick of the injury problems, I lowered my expectations to "sure hope the Blazers make the playoffs. And now? It looks like the Blazers will make the playoffs, and give a team a real challenge. But Utah, Dallas, Denver and LA are all lousy matchups for Portland. I'd be happy to see a 7-game series, but I'm expecting another "one-round-and-out." Simply making the playoffs, after all the tumult and turmoil with the major injury problems, would be an accomplishment.
