The pick that Portland used to get Roy (by drafting and trading Foye) was picked up in a trade for Telfair, Ratliff and a second-rounder. So he had nothing to do with the team's record at the time. Batum wasn't a high lottery pick, or a lottery pick at all. He was drafted 25th. I agree that Portland wouldn't have Aldridge or Oden, if they had taken Paul. I've asked this before, but would you rather the alternate reality where Portland takes Paul? If we assume that the Pritchard moves that didn't require a certain lottery pick would still have happened, it boils down to: Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jerryd Bayless and Martell Webster for Chris Paul, Jarrett Jack, Josh McRoberts and three first-round draft picks. Would you make that trade today, if it were on the table? Of course, other things may have changed too...but this is just for fun, so I'm assuming Pritchard would still have wanted to make the moves that would have been possible without the specific lottery picks he had following the Webster draft.
It had to do with the team wanting Roy so bad (or the pick that could get him) that they'd take on Raef's contract. It's also assuming that they would've kept Telfair that year. We also don't know if they would've been in a position to trade for Batum. The Hornets (who had one of the picks we traded for Batum) might not have been in the same situation where they would sell that pick, or even have that pick still. They might've kept it.
Yes...they thought he was talented enough to be worth LaFrentz's contract. I don't see why that would have changed. I suppose. I think it's a likelier default that they would have kept Telfair for one year, at the very least as a backup to Paul. All possible, which I stipulated. Things other than team record may have changed. But as a base expectation for the sake of discussion, it seems reasonable that Roy and Batum would still have been quite attainable even if the team had been better with Paul. In my opinion, anyway.
We could play this game all day If Sabonis had come over earlier in his career, we would have at least three championships. If we had drafted Jordan... he might have been injured his whole career and never won a thing. I think there's just as good a chance that we would still have, at least, Roy and Batum with Paul.
The obvious solution would have been to stash CP overseas for a year, thus duplicating Webster's impact on the team and keeping us on track to draft Roy/LMA/Oden.
Martell has already blossomed into a passable NBA rotation player and is only 23, by draft history standards he isn't a catastrophic bust for where he was selected. I'd place the odds of Greg staying healthy for more then a few years pretty high. Injuries happen to almost everyone, thankfully his shouldn't affect his longterm abilities STOMP
But you have to factor in his being taken over Deron Williams and Chris Paul. When they pass on two of the best point guards in the NBA, it has to affect how Martell is rated. Similarly, if Oden never amounts to anything, Durant's success will also be factored.
Believe me as someone who grew up in Winston-Salem, I wanted and valued CP. I called him a potential superstar and linked websites that called him the best PG since Kidd & Magic to our chat community. But he and DWilliams were selected before Martell. Nash gambled that Webster + JJack would be > CPaul or Williams... like most everything else he was wrong. I doubt we are disagreeing... more like crossing some communication wires STOMP
I guess I'm just saying, Webster can be a decent rotation player and still be a colossal bust, simply because he was taken instead of Paul or Williams. Similarly, Oden might end up a decent center, but if he never ends up the player we thought he'd be, he could still be a bust.
It's unfortunate, but true. If either Oden or Webster were late first round or early second round picks people would be going nuts about how much of a find the two of them are/were.
