Well at the least I'd say he's missed 2/3s of his potential games as a pro in three years ... so far, that's pretty much the textbook definition of a bust. There's certainly time for him to turn it around with a Grant Hill kind of career resurrection, but if somebody gave me even odds for him having either a long productive career, or one that is going to be further riddled with injury and unfulfilled promise then I think I know where I'd put my money.
I didn't say done ... I just think it's somewhat likely that his injuries are going to be a pattern. He's always going to show flashes of brilliance and brief flashes of dominance, but I just don't believe he's all of a sudden going to be a 70+ games a year player -- hell maybe not even a 60+ games a year player. I'm still of the mind that they should keep him and see what they can get out of him (hopefully without having to overpay), but I fully agree with John Hollinger that he shouldn't be counted on as a pillar of the franchise going forward; everything he gives should be seen as gravy.
Outside of the natural inclination toward pessimism to avoid greater disappointment, why? He's had two injuries and they're both of the "bad luck but neither chronic nor career-altering" variety. Do you subscribe to the brittle bones theory, despite no medical diagnosis of such? I respect Hollinger as a stats guy and a pretty logical sort, but I don't really see him as any kind of authority on predicting these sorts of things. If Oden had suffered injuries that were seen as recurring issues or that changed his athleticism, then I'd be pessimistic about his chances also. Considering he's just 22, hasn't suffered either of those kinds of injuries and has been the real deal when healthy...I think it's a bit early to write him off (either explicitly or in effect). If he suffers another major injury, I'll start subscribing to the "freak injury magnet" theory and probably view him as a guy who's nice to have healthy but isn't ever likely to be healthy for long stretches of time. But two injuries of that sort I'm still defaulting to bad luck rather than predictive problem.
While I think Oden is still young and could play a lot of healthy years to come, missing so much of his early career has to cost his overall development. What he will be might be something less than what he could have been. If you catch my drift.
What I was saying is hindsight is 20/20, and if we were to go back to that draft we would take Durant. But at the time, you had to take Oden.
I don't agree with that. It has to slow his overall development, but players don't develop forever...there's a limit to their progression. Missing a couple of early seasons means it should take him longer to reach that limit than otherwise...but I don't see why it should permanently cost him any development.
I just try to stay slightly optimistic but realistic. I hope the best for Greg, but I don't depend on it. If I was the team moving forward, I would plan on building around what we have, and if Oden shows up and plays well, great.
There wer concerns about Oden's health pre-draft: Teams will be taking a close look at the medical evaluations of the top picks leading up to the June 28 draft. They'll especially focus on likely No. 1 choice Greg Oden, Joakim Noah and Al Thornton, who have been flagged with preexisting injuries by NBA doctors. According to a team executive who has seen medical evaluations of a physical undergone by Oden three weeks ago at the NBA predraft camp in Orlando, the 7-foot center has a couple of worrisome issues. His right wrist has not regained full flexion after being broken last year, and he has a bulging disk in his back. The team executive noted that "big guys always seem to have bad backs.'' But he did express concern about Oden's wrist. "The people I talked to said it was pretty serious,'' the executive said. "Sometimes the wrist never comes back.'' I've also heard an unrelated rumor -- which did not show up in the Orlando physical -- that another team is expressing concern about the long-term health of Oden's knees. ******* Here’s what the Blazers do know: They can’t depend on their young center. Not yet, at least. Maybe not ever. He’s 20 years old, and his injury history is beginning to read like that of a 12-year veteran. He missed the start of his one season at Ohio State after having surgery on his right wrist. He missed all of his first season in Portland after having microfracture surgery on his right knee. He suffered a mild right ankle sprain last month at the start of training camp. Maybe this, like the ankle sprain, doesn’t turn out to be serious, either. But some league executives who have seen Oden’s pre-draft medical report are skeptical of his ability to stay healthy for the long-term. Asked late Tuesday what in the report raised concerns, one Eastern Conference player personnel director was succinct with his answer: “Everything.” Oden’s right leg is slightly longer than his left, which can create hip alignment problems, a condition that bothered former San Antonio Spurs center David Robinson late in his career. The physical also showed Oden had a bulging disc in his back. His knees were another potential area of worry. * * * *
And this is why I worry about his longterm prospects for good health, there were concerns pre-injury about his durability, and to date those concerns have proved to be justified. Still like the guy, still think he has talent and can be a real force on defense and the boards, but that's very different than counting on him as a keystone.
If anybody wants to hear the Doc Rivers Durant/Oden discussion: http://audio.weei.com/m/30075638/doc-rivers-c-s-head-coach.htm about 4 mins in
