Blazer playoff position

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Draco, Apr 4, 2010.

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  1. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    Blazer playoff position; Journey up from 8th seed

    These are the current playoff standings from seeds two through seven with losses and remaining games:
    DAL 27L SAS
    DEN 28L @PHX
    UTH 28L @GSW PHX
    PHX 28L DEN @UTA
    POR 31L GSW
    SAS 31L @DAL
    (OKC is 8th seed)​

    Remaining games by date:
    4/13 UTH@GSW DEN@PHX
    4/14 SAS@DAL GSW@POR PHX@UTH​

    These tiebreakers have been finalized and could possible come into play:
    DAL owns tiebreakers against PHX and DEN
    DEN owns tiebreakers against UTH
    UTH owns tiebreakers against DAL
    POR owns tiebreakers against SAS

    (Being a division winner trumps above tiebreakers)​

    Open tiebreakers
    UTH is 2-1 vs PHX
    PHX is 2-1 vs DEN​

    I'll keep updating this thread over the next 10 days, I kind of enjoy figuring out all the scenarios and where we can end up. Much better than worrying about the lottery and potential draft prospects. :ghoti:
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2010
    Draco, Apr 4, 2010
    #1
    illmatic99 likes this.
  2. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    Blazers win and they are 6th seed. Spurs lose and Blazers are 6th seed.

    Blazers lose and Spurs win Blazers would be 7th seed.

    OKC is the 8th seed.


    There are 5 games remaining that could impact the playoffs:

    UTH@GSW DEN@PHX
    SAS@DAL GSW@POR PHX@UTH:

    That means there are 32 possible permutations of game outcomes:
    GSW DEN DAL GSW PHX
    GSW DEN DAL GSW UTH
    GSW DEN DAL POR PHX
    GSW DEN DAL POR UTH
    GSW DEN SAS GSW PHX
    GSW DEN SAS GSW UTH
    GSW DEN SAS POR PHX
    GSW DEN SAS POR UTH
    GSW PHX DAL GSW PHX
    GSW PHX DAL GSW UTH
    GSW PHX DAL POR PHX
    GSW PHX DAL POR UTH
    GSW PHX SAS GSW PHX
    GSW PHX SAS GSW UTH
    GSW PHX SAS POR PHX
    GSW PHX SAS POR UTH
    UTH DEN DAL GSW PHX
    UTH DEN DAL GSW UTH
    UTH DEN DAL POR PHX
    UTH DEN DAL POR UTH
    UTH DEN SAS GSW PHX
    UTH DEN SAS GSW UTH
    UTH DEN SAS POR PHX
    UTH DEN SAS POR UTH
    UTH PHX DAL GSW PHX
    UTH PHX DAL GSW UTH
    UTH PHX DAL POR PHX
    UTH PHX DAL POR UTH
    UTH PHX SAS GSW PHX
    UTH PHX SAS GSW UTH
    UTH PHX SAS POR PHX
    UTH PHX SAS POR UTH

    These would be the losses for seeds 2-5
    DAL DEN UTH PHX
    27 28 30 29
    27 28 29 30
    27 28 30 29
    27 28 29 30
    28 28 30 29
    28 28 29 30
    28 28 30 29
    28 28 29 30
    27 29 30 28
    27 29 29 29
    27 29 30 28
    27 29 29 29
    28 29 30 28
    28 29 29 29
    28 29 30 28
    28 29 29 29
    27 28 29 29
    27 28 28 30
    27 28 29 29
    27 28 28 30
    28 28 29 29
    28 28 28 30
    28 28 29 29
    28 28 28 30
    27 29 29 28
    27 29 28 29
    27 29 29 28
    27 29 28 29
    28 29 29 28
    28 29 28 29
    28 29 29 28
    28 29 28 29


    These would be the playoff seeds 2-7:
    DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
    DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
    DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
    DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
    DAL DEN PHX UTH SAS POR
    DAL DEN UTH PHX SAS POR
    DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
    DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
    DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
    DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
    DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
    DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
    DAL PHX DEN UTH SAS POR
    DAL DEN UTH PHX SAS POR
    DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
    DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
    DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
    DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
    DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
    DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
    DAL DEN PHX UTH SAS POR
    DAL DEN UTH PHX SAS POR
    DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
    DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
    DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
    DAL UTH PHX DEN POR SAS
    DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
    DAL UTH PHX DEN POR SAS
    DAL PHX DEN UTH SAS POR
    UTH DAL PHX DEN SAS POR
    DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
    UTH DAL PHX DEN POR SAS

    Assuming a team has a 50/50 chance at a win, then:

    Dallas has a 93.8% chance of #2 and 6.3% at #3
    Denver has a 62.5% chance at #3, 25% at #4 and 12.5% at #5
    Utah has a 6.3% chance at #2, 6.3% chance at #3, 37.5% chance at #4 and 50% chance at #5
    Phoenix has a 25% chance at #3, 37.5% chance at #4 and 37.5% chance at #5

    Portland has a 75% chance at #6


    Another way of looking at it is the #2 seed is 93.8% Dallas and 6.3% Utah.

    Chance of being the #3 seed is 6.3% Dallas, 62.5% Denver, 6.3% Utah and 25% Phoenix.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2010
    Draco, Apr 4, 2010
    #2
  3. Bwatcher

    Bwatcher Member

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    Thanks Draco. This makes it easy to see the opportunities/barriers.
     
    Bwatcher, Apr 4, 2010
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  4. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    SA has 6 games, 3 against play-off teams (all on the road).

    OKC has 7 games, 4 against play-off teams. (2 at home)

    Blazers have 3 games against play-off teams (out of 5), but only 1 on the road.

    In other words, all 3 teams have a chance to finish strong - or a chance to founder. I don't see the schedule really favoring any of the three over the others. Honestly, I see no reason to believe either SA or OKC are going to crash-and-burn, so the Blazers are probably stuck with 8th. :dunno:
     
    oldmangrouch, Apr 4, 2010
    #4
  5. The Other Guys

    The Other Guys Luda Davis

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    It's going to be one hell of a week. Top 8 teams facing each other all over the place.
     
    The Other Guys, Apr 4, 2010
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  6. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    This is gonna be a fun week. Glad I have the LeaguePass!
     
    THE HCP, Apr 5, 2010
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  7. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Wheels and Vance are making projections on the remaining games for the 2-8 seeded teams today. Basically, they're saying that playoff teams will win out except when on the road against another playoff team.

    So far, they've projected SAS to finish 8th at 50-32 (losing @PHX, @DEN, & @DAL), POR 7th at 51-31 (losing only @LAL), and OKC 6th at 52-30 (losing @UTA & @POR). Based on this same criteria, they expect DEN to finish 5th at 53-29 (losing only @OKC & @PHX), PHX 4th at 53-29 (losing @OKC & @UTA, winning TB w/DEN), DAL 3rd at 54-28 (losing @POR), and UTA 2nd at 55-27 (winning out).

    So, based on their guesses, seedings would be:

    1 LAL v 8 SAS
    4 PHX v 5 DEN
    2 UTA v 7 POR
    3 DAL v 6 OKC
     
    PtldPlatypus, Apr 5, 2010
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  8. BlazerBeav

    BlazerBeav Well-Known Member

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    Well that would suck - of all the matchups, I hate that one the most. Damn Jerry Sloan.
     
    BlazerBeav, Apr 5, 2010
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  9. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Well, if it makes you feel any better, if everything else plays out as specified, but OKC loses at home to either Denver or Phoenix (both very possible), then we'd get the 6 and OKC would get the 7. Happy now?
     
    PtldPlatypus, Apr 5, 2010
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  10. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    I think I might want to play Utah the most. They're defense has not been efficient this year so I think we will score fine on them. I'm confident with Camby, Batum, and McMillian having time to game plan we will be able to limit their offense more than during the season.

    Regular season records mean very little in my opinion, going 0-4 against Utah and 3-0 against Dallas by itself doesn't mean much when teams are schuffling players in and out of the lineups, traveling, dealing with injuries, not adequately planning for matchups, etc. The postseason is an entirely different season.

    But mostly I want us to just avoid the Lakers in the first round, the other teams seeded 2-5 are very evenly talented.
     
    Draco, Apr 5, 2010
    #10
  11. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    Since OKC lost in overtime to Utah we now control our own destiny for the 7th seed :)
     
    Draco, Apr 6, 2010
    #11
  12. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    A Blazer win with both San Antonio and Oklahoma City losing.

    Perfect!
     
    Draco, Apr 8, 2010
    #12
  13. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    Blazers take a tough loss to Dallas but still control their own destiny for the 6th seed.
     
    Draco, Apr 10, 2010
    #13
  14. Kaydow

    Kaydow Well-Known Member

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    Technically you are right. But the game at LA tomorrow could change that. If we lose, say goodbye to the 6th spot. EVEN if we won the last two (Okl City & Golden State) we would need Okl City to lose to Golden State or Memphis/at home. They won't lose either of either of those.
     
    Kaydow, Apr 10, 2010
    #14
  15. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    I'm shocked OKC lost tonight. Tomorrows winner will finish 6th or 7th and the loser 7th or 8th.
     
    Draco, Apr 11, 2010
    #15
  16. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    Ok I think I got it all figured out now.
     
    Draco, Apr 12, 2010
    #16
  17. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    Teams want to play us now without BROY. Is there a scenario that could make Dallas possibly want to lose their last game to SA so they don't face SA in the playoffs? Probably not since they would not know if we win our last game, but lets face it, we are no longer the team no one wants to face in the first round. SA is. I am half joking about this, but it would be an interesting scenario.
     
    Pinwheel1, Apr 12, 2010
    #17

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