This is how I'm looking at it: If Dallas wins we play winner of Phoenix/Utah. If San Antonio wins the 3 seed will be Phoenix (if Phoenix wins) or Dallas (if Utah wins) If San Antonio wins and we lose we would play Dallas (if Phoenix wins) or Utah (if Utah wins)
Instead of being lazy, I went ahead and created a spreadsheet that would help me determine the likely-hood of where each team would finish based on the probability of all three games. For the example below, I predicted the following. Code: Game Odds Blazers 90% Warriors 10% Jazz 55% Suns 45% Mavericks 60% Spurs 40% Scenario Odds Jazz 55% Mavs 60% Blazers 90% 29.7% Jazz 55% Mavs 60% Warriors 10% 3.3% Jazz 55% Spurs 40% Blazers 90% 19.8% Jazz 55% Spurs 40% Warriors 10% 2.2% Suns 45% Mavs 60% Blazers 90% 24.3% Suns 45% Mavs 60% Warriors 10% 2.7% Suns 45% Spurs 40% Blazers 90% 16.2% Suns 45% Spurs 40% Warriors 10% 1.8% 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mavs 78.0% 22.0% Jazz 22.0% 33.0% 45.0% Nuggets 55.0% 45.0% Suns 45.0% 55.0% Blazers 96.0% 4.0% Spurs 4.0% 96.0%
I too decided to really apply myself tonight, but I think I got my algorithms a bit messed up when I spilled some Hi-C on my flowcharts. Regardless, I'll post the results, and we'll see how it pans out tomorrow. I see a 79% chance of us playing Jan Brady in the first round depending on the San Antonio outcome, but I want to stress that these findings could be flawed, and I don't necessarily stand behind them. An outside shot still exists to play Alice, though.
If Dallas wins their game (which should end right when ours starts), our game will not matter at all. I would hope that Nate rests the guys who need it if that happens.
