One of the sub-stories to the ongoing question of whether Bosh will leave the Raptors is how the Raptors would attempt to handle it. Bryan Colangelo has more or less said "it's not so bad, we could do a sign and trade". Well, my question is how much leverage do the Raptors have for that, and what can they get. First, the leverage the Raptors have is that they can sign and trade Bosh on a six year deal with higher raises, generating him up to $29M more in guaranteed money. While this is nice leverage, I'm not sure it's huge. The actual amount is probably a lot less, but out of that $29M, most of it comes in the final year of the contract. Bosh will certainly sign a new contract after his next one completes, so this number is bound to go down by quite a lot. That is, we're talking about Bosh on a 5yr $96M deal, plus the first year of a follow on deal, vs. Bosh on a 6yr $125M deal. You could actually push it out further than that, because Bosh might have a bit more earning potential when signing his follow on contract in the five year situation (where he'll be an FA again just after turning 31) instead of in a six year situation (where he'll be an FA again just after turning 32). So that gets pretty complicated, and it's a fair guess that the actual money Bosh is going to leave on the table probably only a couple million. Still nothing to sneeze at, but also something that could largely be made up in endorsements, tax effects, and other quality of life issues by going to where he wants to go. So the next question is well, even if it's not $30M worth of leverage, what can Toronto expect to get? And here, I think the Raptors can expect to get something decent, but took much gamesmanship on their part could end up leading them to cut off their nose to spite their face. It’s like a prisoner’s dilemma game. Occasionally the prisoners mange to both stay quiet and get off easy. Much more frequently, however, they both start blabbing. In this context, Bosh and the Raptors are like the prisoners trying to coordinate their activities to get the best outcome. Bosh wants to choose his outcome and get a six year deal. The Raptors want to choose the destination for Bosh that brings them the biggest return in trade, and control whether Bosh gets a five or six year deal. Like, let’s map out the possibilities. Suppose the Bulls and Heat offer Bosh the max: * Bulls offer six years to Bosh, offer a $16.5M trade exception and the Rap’s choice of James Johnson or next year’s 1st round pick. * Heat offer six years to Bosh, offer a $16.5M trade exception and the Rap’s choice of Dorrell Wright or next year’s 1st round pick. Bosh chooses Bulls or Heat based on whichever team he likes. The Raps get basically the same return either way. They might not like it, they might posture for more (in Bulls land, there has been talk about Joakim Noah), and they might threaten to not sign and trade Bosh. But if they actually carry out that threat, they’re losing out on an extremely valuable trade exception and a pick. Just like the prisoner who wants to remain silent, but knows talking gets him off easier, the Raptors face a strong incentive to cave in. Because of that fact, Bosh really doesn’t have to think too much about whether he’d like one team or another on a five year deal or a six year deal since Toronto’s threat to make him sign a five year deal is not very credible.
your post is laced with assumptions. here's what i know- bosh is a free agent and he hasnt said anything either way about his intentions so lets wait and see.
assumptions. this isnt the prisoners dilemma because the raps hold all the cards in my opinion. players are expendable, even the stars unless your name is lebron, dwade, kobe, and deron williams, cp3 to a much lesser extent. in bosh tenure here- we have actually been a sub .500 team so bosh isnt the answer, although, i like his game and i think he could be effective player if coupled with another star. going back to bosh- he's an athlete and athletes only have a short period of time to make their money and with the current CBA expiring in 2011 and the potential doomsday scenarios for player salaries- this could be bosh's last chance at a big payday.
Assumptions! The doomsday scenarios largely seem applicable to the average players around the league. As you say, the stars are the guys who are real draws. They're probably relatively underpaid at the max, whereas there are plenty of overpaid average players (a la Hedo, Andrea, maybe Calderon and Jack). My guess is that the doomsday scenarios are for guys who aren't stars. The stars will continue to make out well, and possibly even better than before. I think generally speaking, you guys are psychologically preparing to lose him. Why wouldn't it be a great thing for you guys?
http://sportstwo.com/NBASalaries.php#jump_MIA According to our awesome salaries database, Miami has the cap space they need to sign Bosh to a max contract. IF Bosh leaves, I think this is the obvious and ideal destination for him. 1) He would pair with one of the top few elite players in the league, a champion. 2) His skills are a perfect match for Wade, inside/outside and pick & roll fit to a "tee". 3) If they have bird rights, they can then re-sign J. O'Neil and Haslim, along with Beasley, giving the Heat a monster front court. 4) Miami has been very good for big men since Riley's been involved. Miami has even more cap space that could be used to fill their remaining holes, a starting PG and depth at G.
^ How outrageous would it be if the trade Bryan Colangelo made with the Heat for Shawn Marion ended up with them having the cap space to steal Bosh?
suck good point LOL but raps can give bosh a year more than any other team! anyways what if raps get amare and give up bosh?
Yes, they can. But if Bosh commits himself to leaving, the Raps are faced with the choice of losing him for nothing or letting him get a 6-year-deal via a S&T. Do you think they would eschew a return on his departure simply out of spite? I doubt it.
