Golden State Warriors guard Monta Ellis has missed numerous games during the second half of this NBA season, after playing nearly every game and minute before the trade deadline. It seems like the Warriors were showcasing Ellis for other teams. Their plan did work for a while. Several teams were interested in the high scoring guard and his value was skyrocketing. Ever since the trade deadline has passed though, Ellis has been injured and sick. One can say that it is because of the heavy load of minutes he endured during the first half of the season, but there could be more to the story. Ellis has showed less effort on the court in the games that he has played during the second half of the season, and the Warriors seem to have handed the keys of the franchise over to rookie Stephen Curry. It seems like Ellis may be on his way out of the Bay Area soon. This brings up a question a few people including myself have been wondering for the past few days: Does Monta Ellis really have the flu? Ellis has had the flu a few other times during this second part of the year, and it seems like there is more to the story that we are not hearing. Even center Ronny Turiaf had the flu after Monta, but gutted it out and played in the game last night on the road. In the meantime, Ellis is back in Oakland resting. Something similar happened last year when Ellis went back to his home in the south for "family issues." Some may say that Ellis is just resting because there is nothing to play for anymore, but why was he not with the team to see Don Nelson break the all-time wins record for a coach? It's true that Ellis and Nellie are not the best of friends, but you would expect your star player to make the trip and support the 70-year-old coach. This is all speculation, but I encourage you to look deeper into this. Do not be surprised if you hear reports that Ellis does not have the flu and the team is just letting him sit out because of his differences with the rest of the team. Also, do not be surprised to see the one man fast break on another team's roster by draft night. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/375536-does-monta-ellis-really-have-the-flu
I raised this question to myself too. I do think the Warriors have been open to trading Ellis, but just haven't found a fair deal. There's also the factor of what the new ownership wants to do, so things may be cautious until that happens. Unlike other teams, the Warriors don't have to gut itself to make itself attractive to buyers. So my feeling is that it's part fatigue and part cautiousness to avoid injury, and not some kind of sign that there's a rift. Monta had flu-like symptoms starting around March 28, so it's been a full 2 week flu, or whatever he's got. Personally I hate taking flights when I'm sick, but I'm not paid millions of dollars either, plus like you said, Turiaf made it (although I hope he gets some rest now too). But I don't blame the Warriors for telling Ellis he could sit a road trip at this point. What's interesting is how well Curry handled the team during Monta's absence, with the team going 4-2 and Curry averaging 21.8 points, 8.8 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 2.3 steals on over 45% shooting, while playing tons of minutes this season and not hitting any rookie walls. The numbers go up if you only look at the wins. Ellis has to have been available for trades since the break, but teams are in money-saving mode right now. Still, even at $11 million, Ellis' salary isn't insane for his production, but the problem is that most of the players the Warriors covet are probably still on rookie contracts or draft picks, making trades require a lot of extra contract baggage.
This Mercury news article discusses the situation with Ellis. Source It kind of sucks to trade Ellis, value-wise. Basically, there's no team that will give back an all-star player for Ellis, or at least not that I've heard. So if he isn't worth that, the next step has to be to reach for multiple draft picks/prospects. Ideally, Ellis would return at least three lottery-level prospects, but I'd probably have to settle for two plus filler. Not to be Captain Obvious, but I'd say right now that the first Warriors priority, or the obvious priority of any rebuilding team that doesn't have cap room, would be to stockpile draft picks/prospects. And the second priority would be to get cap room. The Pacers fit with both of these priorities with having a 2010 lottery pick plus a ton of 2010 expiring contracts (two due to the last Warriors-Pacers trade, coincidentally). So given that logic, I'd ask for the Pacers next two first round draft picks, and add one of the four expiring contracts (Ford, Foster, Murphy or Dunleavy) to get the trade working under the cap, and any other filler if necessary. From the Pacers perspective, you're giving up the ability to sign a 2011 free agent and losing a young player or two, but the Pacers would still have enough money from expiring contracts to surround Ellis and Granger with one or two of the best free agents in 2011. Unless someone fails to resign their 2008 draft picks, all of the best free agents in 2011 will be over 30, and Ellis will only be 25, so I'd think that Ellis is attractive enough to go that route. P.S. I was looking at the NBA salaries on the site and read Tinsley's comment just now, I never noticed it before. That's awesome.
Ellis is obviously incompatible with Curry and the other GMs see that. I'm thinking we're lucky to get a decent player and a pick in return.
i don't think that monta ellis is "the problem" right now, so to speak. yeah, he probably isn't he best 2-guard to play next to curry in the long run, and when we can get something decent in return, i'd be all for it...but if we make the shitty deal that i know this team is capable of making, how will we be any better off? most of the reports on monta being unhappy seem to be speculation, and he seems ok letting curry play quarterback. i say we ride it out until we get something that we can at least try to convince ourselves is of equal value, and in the meantime focus on the front court where we're really lacking...and if we can kill two birds with one stone, awesome.
I wonder if Monta didn't say "can't do it" in pre-season we'd even be having these discussions. I think all the hate has strictly been based off those comments. I don't think it's fair. The guy has done nothing but play his heart out every game. Yeah, he's not perfect but I have no complaints. As far as I can tell, I see no reason why he will not be on the team long-term.
Personally, I think Monta is a great player, and he's surpassed my expectations for this season. But since the first month of the season, after seeing Curry play, I felt that he should be traded for the benefit of the Warriors future. It's nothing that he's done wrong, but simply that he's the most valuable trade piece we have right now, and his contract isn't really fitting for a team that is unable to rebuild without some major moves. As I've mentioned before, there's no flexibility in our cap position for years, so our only way to improve is to build through the draft, or to create a trade. Yes, there's always the chance we fail in the draft, but I believe that doing nothing may be just as bad as far as getting into the playoffs is concerned. I'd rather risk giving up Ellis on the chance to build a solid foundation instead of continuing to run and gun on the edge or the lottery for two more years. Changing the team by adopting a more standard pairing of a defensive, team-oriented type (like Bell, or Turner if we are so lucky) with Curry, along with developing consistency in the frontcourt, (hopefully Randolph and Biedrins, and/or the possible draft pick depending on our lottery spot), seems to be the best way to retool the roster for starters. Except on some nights, it's not like we lack for offense on this team, as they've shown playing without Monta. A reliable interior scorer would go a much longer ways, too, but I'd settle for just defense on the perimeter and interior with basic, unspectacular offensive skills and build from there. I mean.. is there another guard other than Iverson that carried his team alone? As far as the rumors about Monta's personality/disposition, it's not only the comment he said in the beginning of the season, but everything from the moped, to the silly comments he's made. I don't think Monta means any disrespect, and he's been professional at the least, but I just don't feel that the chemistry is the right match. Even Ellis and Curry have addressed that their relationship has not been open and easy-going. It's not bad either, but not bad doesn't exactly inspire confidence in me. There's other articles, but I think that this sfgate article summarizes a good chunk of the situation.
I feel like Monta has learned to play alongside Curry much better later in the season. For a long time it was very awkward and Monta seemed to want to prove he was the man. I think now hes accepted his role as a 2 guard with Ccurry and perhaps even embraces it. I think he may have realized that he can be more effective, fresher, and get more wins if he lets Steph run the squad. Wouldn't be very upset if we shipped Monta off but he is a pretty damn good two guard. I wouldn't trade him off for some lesser pieces but I would gladly include him in a package for a better player...seems news out of Toronto today is that a Bosh S&T could be ideal for both the Raps and Bosh. I wouldn't mind shipping Monta and Beans (plus some other filler? One of our young PFs?) for Bosh. Does that sound fair to you guys? Would the Raps go for it? Maybe they'd rather have our 1st rounder (slated right now to be between 3 and 5)? Would you guys give that pick plus Beans if it meant us having a trio of Curry, Monta, Bosh?
I respectfully disagree that Monta is the most valuable trade piece. The fact that his contract is fairly large (not ridiculous though), automatically makes him one of the harder assets to trade, especially in an era where all teams are trying to shed payroll. Trust me, this FA off-season isn't the only reason people are trying to alleviate their book liabilities. I get it though, he's the "best" player the Warriors have. So from a talent perspective, he probably is one of the most attractive assets not named Stephen Curry. But, like you mentioned, he's an undersized SG with some obvious deficiencies. IMO, Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, and Brandan Wright have much higher trade value than Monta. Even with Biedrins' salary, a blue collar big man is always in high-demand. Randolph and Wright's value is in their age, potential, low salary, and the fact that they're "big men." So, I think Monta's trade value is not as high as it seems. But, we'll see. Maybe it was all fluff, but recent interviews by Monta and Curry have both of them saying the turmoil is behind them and they are positive about the future. I can see the result on the floor too. It could be better though. I haven't seen Curry or Monta set each other up on a set play yet; maybe it's not possible, which would be a problem, but I think we need to give them a chance to develop some more chemistry. So far, better than anyone would have expected. The combined PPG and APG stat, where they're leading the league, is probably a little mis-leading, because Curry started playing really good with Monta off the floor, and vice versa, but it's still an impressive stat nonetheless. Anyway, I think the Curry-Monta dynamic is the least of the Warriors problems. Monta's contract isn't that bad where it will hinder the Warriors chances of signing a big FA. It's the combination of big contracts, either self-imposed or inherited, that is the problem. Plus, the Warriors at their own admission will not land a big time FA. In a couple years though, they will have to position themselves to give that max contract to Stephen Curry, presuming he is going to be as good as everyone thinks (I think he will). I still think Maggette is the number one problem for the Warriors. Despite the fact that he's had a good year and has started to learn how to play in a system, his contract and his overall performance are not in the Warriors' best interest. That combination makes him a priority to move in the off-season, even if it means including Wright or Randolph to do so.
If we could get rid of Maggette, for nothing, I'd definitely change my mind on trading Ellis. While I now have some hope in moving Maggette, unlike before the season when it seemed hopeless, it still seems impossible for us to move him for anything better than expiring contracts. His contract is really the one that's to blame for the poor cap situation, but what's kind of ironic is that we tried to sign Brand and Arenas that year as well, and Maggette probably turned out to be the least worst signing of those three in 2008. So many poor signings from last year's FA crop, too (Turkoglu, Ben Gordon, Villanueva, Rasheed Wallace, etc.), while Maggette, for all his faults, produced in a very reasonable manner on this team. Plus, Maggette overcame the negative chemistry/coachability from when his relationship with Dunleavy, to have only responded in interviews about being happy in Oakland. So, he's at least in Jamal Crawford territory now, where some team would benefit having him while giving up some expiring contracts. Then, we'd have at least a shot to trade for or land a 2011 free agent who complements the current team instead of stifles them. Back in '08, the Celtics, Spurs, and Magic had interest in him - we could flip him for Jefferson's expiring contract or something. I'm really rooting for Biedrins, Randolph and Wright to get back to game shape, but their injuries have been pretty extensive and poorly timed. It's difficult to get back on the court when there's still so much that they have to learn, so not only did they lose that time to develop, but much of their focus and effort has to be placed towards simply recovering from the setback both mentally and physically. Teams naturally are wary of players returning from injuries so I feel that their trade value is mostly dormant, except for Biedrins who's at least proven what kind of player he can be. Plus, if guys like David Lee are fighting for a contract similar to Ellis', while perimeter players like Rudy Gay are rumored to be going for around $10 million, it just seemed logical that Ellis could do just as well for another team at his $11 million contract that carries him through the prime years of his career. Plus, Ellis was already in that trade rumor of Mayo/Thabeet, which seemed like it was actually a fair offer, though unspectacular. If he can return at least that, then I figured there was still hope. I argued against trading for Bosh in the past, under similarly hypothetical trade conditions, but I'd do that trade now. But I can't see Bosh having a desire to come here and repeat what's happening to him in Toronto (surrounding him with poor contracts of Turkoglu, Calderon, and Bargnani, who are not enough to build around yet take up over $30 million of the Raptors, just like the Warriors' contract situation). Plus, a draft pick can be really valuable (Curry is a good example of taking a draft pick and turning it into a solid player on a cheap contract for three years), so I bristle at the thought of giving one up in a trade right now. I am optimistic about this year's draft prospects.
Good points, Zhone. Can't disagree with any of it. I think if the Warriors don't get the #1 or #2 pick, they should package it in a trade for something. I have no idea. Stephen Curry is the man. Had to point that out.
Would Pistons do Maggette for Tayshaun Prince? Would Bucks do Maggette for Carlos Delfino + Dan Gadzuric Would Kings do Maggette for Andres Noccioni + Carl Landry Would Hornets do Maggette for James Posey + Julian Wright Would Pacers do Maggette for Dahntay Jones + Jeff Foster If no, no, no, no, no we'll we're f-ed. Nobody wants Maggette because of our idiot management. I don't know why I'm so surprised anymore.
If Ellison buys the team, and is willing to go over the cap and pay the fine, is Magette still an issue? Something to think about, Maggette's contract is 3 yrs...at the end of next season, his contract actually becomes valuable. Do we think that think that this team will make a push next season? If not, then let's hold on to Magette 1 more year and see what we can get for him next off-season. The window to dump Magette ended at the all-star break, IMO. If Cohan holds on to ownership, then he needs to go this off-season, but it's going to cost Randolph to move him.
Oh CR2, dream on. Only possibility would be Posey I believe, since they are both overpriced vets. No way Kings give up Landry. Even Prince is better, younger and about the same price, his contract may even be up before Maggette's.
If Maggette was signed at $7 million per year instead of $10 million, almost one of those trades probably could easily happen. (I agree that can't see Sac going for it because they're in house-cleaning mode, and other than money, getting Landry was their motivation for the Houston trade). With a more willing owner, we could throw in cash considerations to a team to get rid of Maggette if necessary. But even right now, I could see those proposals with the Pacers and Bucks happening since both of those trades involve bench role-players. Honestly though, I think Riley is too timid to offer or pull of any trade like those, because he seems to place much more value on his own players than the rest of the league.
