Dallas won 55 games this year, only one more than we did last year. The Nugs, for all the hype, were only a 53 win team. That's just 3 games better than us this year, and we had 27 games with Juwan Howard as our starting center (!) and Andre Miller coming off the bench for 16 games. If the Blazers were healthy this year, they'd clearly have been a pretty big notch ahead of either of those two teams. Between 57 and 62 wins, or right with the Cavs, Lakers and Magic. If the Blazers are healthy next year, they should once again be right in the thick of it with those serious contenders.
Now if they can make that One Big Move you're talking about and parlay Aldridge and parts for a 22+ PER guy, I think you have to look at this team as not just a contender, but a favorite. I'm all for having my team being a favorite for the championship. But I'll definitely "settle" for just contending at this stage.
I think we're just using different terms for the same thing. By "primary title contender" I meant a favourite...like LA, Cleveland, Orlando. "At this stage," sure. I'm just unconvinced that there will be a further stage without that Big Move(tm). And I think there's a major and important difference between being a borderline contender and a favourite. You can, easily, go a decade as a borderline contender and never get even one title. It's very important to get over the top...create that overwhelming core that would have to suffer a major upset to lose in the playoffs to anyone other than another major favourite.
I don't think there is a favorite this year. It's either Cleveland or Orlando in my mind, but there's no clear favorite. A "favorite" to me is a 65-72 win team.
Thanks. I said "if absolutely everything breaks right." This was the season where absolutely everything broke.
Well, in my original post, I was already counting Oden. Roy/Oden/20-22 PER Player as the core. So Oden can't both fill his role AND that of another 20-22 PER player.
Ah, my bad. Here's a crazy idea... what about Pendergraph two years from now? The dude is a beast in the advanced stats, and his per 36's look great (except for the 6.8 fouls per game... yikes!) -- Ease him in next year by making him the main backup to LMA, then trade LMA the year after when his BYC status is better.
How many teams even have three 22+ PER players? Last year, the Laker had Bryant at 24.4, Pau Gasol at 22.2, Andrew Bynum at 20 (but only 11.8 for the playoffs), and Lamar Odom at 16.6. Do any current teams have a core of three players with PERs at 22+?
This year? Only the Lakers (all three hovering between 22 and 20). Most playoff teams have only one player (well) above 20, and several hovering just below 20 (17-19); or they have two players just above 20 (20-23) and several well below 20 (15-17).
Usually, title teams have one player who's over 25+ PER. Oden might become that player, but for now I'm going to err on the side of caution and not assume that. Roy isn't such a player. Minus such a superstar, Portland needs a different make-up. It's not about fitting a close comparison with another champion but about asking what does this particular core to reach championship-caliber? I think what this core needs, lacking as it does a dominant superstar, is one more clearly All-Star caliber player. Three clear All-Stars, IMO, would make up for no dominant player.
If Portland were to get a third 20+ PER player, that would mean we would have 3 out of the 27 20+ PER players in the NBA. As it is now, we have 3 out of the top 45 (including Aldridge). The only player I'd say above him that are 20+ and could replace him are David Lee and Kevin Love. I don't think either are an upgrade.
Roy had a PER of 24 last season playing with a bunch of young kids. I'm guessing that it's this year's 21.3 in an injury-plagued season that will be the outlier for the next 6-7 years.
I hope you're right. My expectation is that he'll be between last year and this year, in terms of production. Like, a 22-23 PER player. A Deron Williams level player, rather than a Chris Paul level player.
If we can somehow get Bosh without giving up Batum, I'm all for your theory. If it's Lee or Kevin Love, no thanks. I think Nic can be a 20+ PER player within 2 years.
Blah Blah Blah yourself. We won in spite of Jerryd, not because of anything good he did. Bayless had a -7 Saturday, worst on the team. He is -43 for the 5 games. That's an average of -8.6 per game. His poor D is killing us. Had Nate not sat him down we would have lost and I'd be fishing right now.
