Sorry to burst your bubble, Hollinger never blamed LeBron afterwards. Because LeBron was amazing. Why should I review anything if your responses are always much less detailed than mine? Look at how brief you've been lately, you don't have anything insightful to add. Aside from your subjective opinion. Again, read your articles and I wouldn't have to do everything for you. Hollinger: "that's one of the reasons I created PER -- it enables us to make comparisons between seasons much more easily than we could do otherwise, because it scales to the same league average each season (15.0) and automatically adjusts for factors like pace, minutes, and whether offense or defense was ascendant at the time."
Oh so are you admitting PER is being compared across eras now? Written before the playoffs. Sorry even that quote is meaningless now, hollinger didn't expect the single best playoff run ever. Yes as in: if LeBron only had 28 PER in the playoffs like Jordan at that age, instead of 37 PER, it wouldn't be the greatest. If James is the reason his team loses (plays poorly throughout the Magic series), then he wouldn't be in the discussion. Unfortunately for a biased Jordan fan like yourself who refuses to acknowledge stats now, that wasn't the case. Your argument is unfocused. First you love Hollinger, then disregard PER because Jordan is losing. Then you disregard BBR and Win Shares because your guy is down. Then you say PER can't compare eras, when you're clearly wrong. What exactly is your contention? Because Jordan is losing in all the major categories. Offense is not nearly as subjective, Hollinger says so himself. Playing well in the post-season is something I've considered throughout this discussion, and once again you ignore the numbers. You're becoming, "because I say so" kind of a fan. I'm just trying to report the news here. :]
If you don't understand or ignore basic terminology like Subjective, it doesn't make sense for anyone else to write a thesis.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100330 Here is a more recent quote from Hollinger. Note, Hollinger didn't say that Lebron needed to have x more years of great PER scores to be the GOAT. And y defensive win shares. :> Of course, since the article, James failed to show the mentality and intensity in the last 3 games of the Celts series of an all-time great, let alone a GOAT.
So what? He hasn't blamed LeBron. Sorry but I come prepared. ;] http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/15886/offense-the-offender-in-cavs-finale Hah he didn't say LeBron needs 6 titles, the rings will come if the PER is there, that's usually how it is dude. It would be very difficult to do one and not the other. Except MJ quit on his team a few times, and LeBron has better clutch playoff games. Now we're back to the beginning where you cut off. Hah, no he addressed this as well. He never said LeBron "failed" at anything, he said LeBron was injured in fact. And that his teammates were terrible.
You argument is "because I say so", let's get it right. Defense is "subjective" but Hollinger uses similar methods to me and other APBR dudes, offense isn't nearly as subjective. It can get extremely detailed. Ok your entire argument is subjective, that's why you tried to convince me Jordan has better numbers until you missed every step of the way in every possible barometer in this discussion? Including championships Since Michael had 0. Let me address this silly post again. You cite Hollinger, but why would you cite defensive teams and awards? Hollinger doesn't believe in awards, Hollinger doesn't blame LeBron. JH is comparing MJ's complete career to LeBron's, which is not what this discussion is about. Again your argument is not logical. You're scared of the numbers, be honest. Hollinger doesn't support defensive teams, Hollinger doesn't support Michael as a better defender, or better player at this point. LeBron doesn't even have to win 6 titles, and this discussion is about Michael until 25 anyway.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100406 Again, Hollinger's picks for the Defensive teams is predominantly subjective. If you look at this his top 15 players on defense, there is no correlation between advanced defensive stats and how he picks the 1st, 2nd and 3rd team. If we can't agree on this simple fact, there is no reason to go on. Maybe we are on the same page here. It's really hard to tell with your posts.
You're trying to tie me and APM together, which is false. You can't tell me what stats I like, it doesn't include APM because that is a team component more than any other. And I don't consider it "advanced" because it isn't a feature on basketball reference. He applies his own version of D win shares, using APM to share credit. His findings correlate closest with me, hk.
I don't think so. Why don't you show the rankings of players with this methodology from 2009-2010 & we can compare to Hollinger's list.
MJ averaged 32 ppg in the playoffs that season but after that game, he played great, , and averaged 42 ppts in the last 4 games of that series beating a team that was better in the regular season than the Bulls. Conversely, Lebron averaged 29 ppg in the playoffs overall, , but averaged 21 ppgs in the last 3 games of that series losing to a team that was worse in the regular season than the Cavs. A bit different scenerio. Crushing it in Round 1 of the playoffs does not a GOAT make.
Ah really? Tell me your methodology, show me how it is better. Is it? Probably not. You don't even know what Hollinger did in the article, which was apply team efficiency. Read please. I have provided you with the evidence, you're just so nonchalant you barely clink on my links. Defensive Win Shares gets virtually all of this correctly. Hollinger isn't the only guy to look at by the way. Conversely you using raw numbers is a joke argument. Pace also hurts your guy but you're too much of a fan to realize it. Jordan allowed a million more points than LeBron, so I don't think you want to go with raw numbers. Funny, the '10 Celtics are better on defense then anything Jordan faced.
Ok since Jay keeps forgetting what he said way back when, let's not keep going in circles. My comments are in bold. Outline of discussion: 1. "That's the bigger point than his rounding up to get a weak MVP performance " ~ 99 points per 100 possession is better than any Bad Boy Pistons, or Bird's Celtics defense. 2010 is a superior defensive era, as is 2008. ~ The PER guidelines are for mediocre defenses. http://sportstwo.com/threads/159375...Bulls-thread?p=2335487&viewfull=1#post2335487 2. "New rules lebron has old rules MJ PER. I would hate to see what MJ would be putting up now. " ~ PER adjusts for league average. 3. "Or are you stating that because he was great in a different game and the Cavs lost that it doesn't matter if he had a relatively poor game when the Cavs lost and got eliminated?" ~ The belief that playing below LeBron's level, to only excel in Game 6 matters more. ~ Ignoring he shouldn't be down 3-1 to Orlando, since he lost an epic game 1 and had no help. ~ Mo Williams has Derek Fisher PER, which is a joke. 4. "In the first link, it shows Lebron have the 4th best game by Win Score in game 1 vs. Orlando last year. OK - Barkley has 2 games better than that and Vince Carter and MJ have a better game than that. So what?" ~ LeBron has the more impressive playoff game. Did it against the best defense in the NBA, Jordan did it against #25, an expansion team. 5. "MJ averaged 32 ppg in the playoffs that season but after that game, he played great," ~ Once again ignoring quality of defense. ~ Using an inferior statistical barometer to make his point. Win Shares > PPG ~ Using raw numbers to his advantage, but ignoring Jordan gives up a lot more points. ~ This is why we use adjust for league average. 6. "In the second link, it shows by Win Shares Lebron had the best playoff year in 2009. Look at the list however, Jameer Nelson is having nearly as good a year this year. Magic Johnson is nowhere to be found. Hmmm. Does this make Jameer Nelson a zillon times better than Magic?" ~ LeBron has 4.8 win shares in a post-season, the others don't play those amount of minutes. 7. "In the third link, it's really showing "Could be eliminated" rather than "elimination" games. I'm talking about Lebron's performance in the elimination game last year." ~ LeBron has a superior resume in elimination games, which is a random barometer Jay chose but still lost in. ~ 2008 Celtics rank ahead of the Pistons in the 80's and Celts of 80's, by a nice margin too. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/ 8. "In the fourth link, Terrel Brandon and Penny Hardaway are higher than MJ or Lebron." ~ Michael never played below Penny level in one game? 9. "Find anyone that says MJ lacked desire on the floor. The best you have is another poster that said MJ did in a Game 2 and he came back and more than made up for it." ~ Sure, your own Bulls fans. ~ Thanks Shape, reminded me how MJ quit in Game 2 against the Knicks in 89. After Jay said MJ was a saint. 10. "GOAT ain't just an endurance test. You gotta win baby." ~ Michael with 0 rings at this point, and 50 less playoff games. 11. "Dude, you think win shares and PER are the holy grail so I didn't even bring up how Jordan won DPOY when he was Lebron's age. I'm sure this doesn't matter, right?" ~ Hollinger doesn't respect or care about awards. Michael should have lost the DPOY to Hakeem by D-Win Shares. 12. "Please tell me the top 10 of all time by these factors and also let me know where Bird and Magic end up. " ~ Told him about the inner circle analysis on BBR, I wasn't hiding anything. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4245 13. "I do think Lebron may go down as having the greatest PER ever in the first round of the playoffs. Mad DWS, too." ~ Michael out of the first round only once at Bron's age. LeBron undefeated in first round, five years in a row. ~LeBron destroyed Magic, Kobe didn't to same degree and won a ring that year. 14. "Given how you can't even abide by Basketball-reference's definition of a player's age for a certain season, I'm leaning towards cherry picking." ~ Not knowing how old Michael Jordan is. 15. "Or Lebron had a hell of a 14 game stint in the 2008 playoffs and you are cherry-picking certain advanced stats to make the case you want to make." ~ Cherry picking 95 consecutive games? Not understanding LeBron has single best amount of win shares in a season, modern era. 16. "Win Shares? Show me where Hollinger claims Win Shares is the end-all-be-all. He is Mr. PER. " ~ LeBron is Mr. PER, and Hollinger uses Defensive ratings... 17. "How does it use it? As a tool, not the end all be all. Like all the other APBRmetric heads. Except you. " ~ Often they combine a few methods as an end-all, or close to it. Losing in every method constantly is close to end-all as well. 18. "Could this be any clearer? Hollinger says you have to watch the games. Hollinger sure as hell wouldn't endorse taking some blend of advanced stats from seasons that are 20+ years apart and declaring that as the definitive answer. I doubt any well-known, credible basketball statistician would say that. But feel free to find one that does." ~ And then Hollinger compares LeBron with Michael in his peak, and uses a defensive analysis involving defensive rating. 19. "p.s. Look at how the on-court, off-court number correlated with Hollinger's picks in his first, second and third team picks. On his first team, he picked the guy with the best stats once, the 2nd best stats once and the worst (out of the three) stats three times." ~ Not understanding I have not mentioned Adjusted Plus/Minus as proof in anything. Failing to notice Hollinger uses Defensive Rating in this article. 20. "Great, Lebron improved. Where is he at? On Hollinger's 2nd defensive team this year. From my above link." ~ Ignoring Wallace is second best defender in the league, LeBron is third. The "subjective" component here was Defensive rating essentially (Team efficiency Hollinger mentions). ~ Not reading what I type at all. Hello? He was on my second team too. 21. "Why do I need to click on links showing defensive win shares for individual seasons when Hollinger says "Despite all that's been done with numbers over the past decade or so, this remains an inherently subjective exercise" ~ Hollinger doesn't think DPOY means anything either. Hakeem was better than jordan on defense, in 88 and throughout his career. ~ LeBron faces more offense supposedly right? Yet allows fewer points. Not consistent with his position. ~ Scottie Pippen has a higher Defensive Win Share peak, and this happened when Jordan retired. Playing with him will take a lot of credit away from MJ. ~ Ignoring he had no clear knowledge of where Wallace ranked, while I did. 22. " Hollinger never wrote a major article comparing greats using advanced stats on O, let alone D. You don't seem to understand his viewpoint." ~ And then I mentioned exactly the article where Hollinger compares two great players on O, across eras with PER. 23. ~ If MJ was clearly better as JayJohnstone states, LeBron wouldn't be beating him in every category I brought up. ~LeBron has more clutch games in his short career, and Hollinger doesn't criticize LeBron for 2009 or 2010 either. ~ He refuses to acknowledge maybe the best known website about basketball and advanced analysis (basketball-reference). http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/15886/offense-the-offender-in-cavs-finale Conclusion: LeBron's advantages ~ Single Season combined PER, regular and playoffs. ~ PER value (PER multiplied by minutes) career through 25. ~ Combined Win Shares, season (accomplished in 95 games, compared to 99 for MJ). ~ WS career through age 25. ~ Playoff prime. ~ Playoff WS per minute in a season. ~ Playoff career win shares through 25. ~ Defensive Rating Career. ~ Defensive Rating Single Season. ~ Elimination playoff game performances. ~ Single dominant Playoff game. ~ Defensive Win Shares at LeBron's peak is higher than MJ. ~ Michael lost Defensive Player of the Year WS to Hakeem. ~ Michael had Scottie who had a higher Defensive WS peak. ~ LeBron's second and third option has Derek Fisher PER in the post-season. ~ LeBron had a three year head start in the league, through age 25 he deserves credit as GOAT.
Fine, adjust both MJ's and Lebron's to an average pace. It would be the same. Adversity came and MJ got better. Adversity came and Lebron got worse.
Outline of discussion: 1.) I don't need to have ever watched a single baskeball game because I have PER, Win Shares and a host of other statistics. No, stats don't tell all.
Yep, when they talk about the great ones, they always talk about Playoff WS per minute in a season rather than losing when you had home court advantage and Defensive WS peak rather than DPOY. And they would never talk about mentality and quitting on the court....
I'm so sorry it is tough for you to understand then. That no one has ever won with Derek Fisher as your second best player. Hakeem appreciates the lack of desire in MJ btw.
Lebron is now 0-2 in the playoffs with a 60 win team. MJ was 0-0 at 25 but throughout his career, he won it all everytime his team won 60 games. Another mark Lebron ain't going have. 5-0 in total.
