Semi-OT:Hindsight Bias

Sug · Jun 17, 2010

So I was reading some of my favorite blogs this morning, and I came across this little gem. I think it is perfect for the whole KP situation, because clearly we all have a bias when it comes to interpreting what is going on.

http://youarenotsosmart.com/2010/06/14/hindsight-bias/

Hindsight Bias
JUNE 14, 2010
tags: availability heuristic, hindsight bias, Baruch Fischhoff, Karl Teigen
by David McRaney
The Misconception: After you learn something new, you remember how you were once ignorant or wrong.

The Truth: You often look back on the things you’ve just learned and assume you knew them or believed them all along.

Source: Nick Douglas

“I knew they were going to lose.”

“That’s exactly what I thought was going to happen.”

“I saw this coming.”

“That’s just common sense.”

“I had a feeling you might say that.”

How many times have you said something similar and believed it?

Probably many times, but research shows there is a fundamental flaw in your reasoning.

You tend to edit your memories so you don’t seem like such a dimwit when things happen you couldn’t have predicted. When you learn things you wish you had known all along, you go ahead and assume you did know them. This tendency is just part of being a person, and it is called the Hindsight Bias.

Take a look at the results of this study:

A recent study by researchers at Harvard shows as people grow older they tend to stick to old beliefs and find it difficult to accept conflicting information about topics they are already familiar with. The findings seem to suggest you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.

Of course the study showed this. You’ve known this your whole life; it’s common knowledge.

Consider this study:

A study out of The University of Alberta shows older people, with years of wisdom and a virtual library of facts from decades of exposure to media find it much easier to finish a four-year degree ahead of time than an 18-year-old who has to contend with an unfinished, still-growing brain. The findings show you are never too old to learn.

Wait a second. That seems like common knowledge too.

So which is it – you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, or you are never too old to learn?

Actually, I made both of these up. Neither one is a real study. (Using fake studies is a favorite way of demonstrating hindsight bias, thanks to psychologist David G. Meyers for the idea.)

Both of those fake studies seemed probable because when you learn something new you quickly redact your past so you can feel the comfort of always being right.

In 1986, Karl Teigen, now at the University of Oslo, did a study in which he asked students to evaluate proverbs.

Teigen gave participants famous sayings to evaluate. When participants were given koans like, “You can’t judge a book by its cover,” they tended to agree with the wisdom.

What would you say?

Is it fair to say you can’t judge a book by its cover? From experience, can you remember times when this was true?

What about the expression, “If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck?” Seems like common sense too, huh?

So which is it?

In Teigen’s study, most people said yes to all the proverbs he showed them, even when they conflicted. When he asked them to evaluate the phrase, “love is stronger than fear,” they agreed with it. When he presented them the opposite, “fear is stronger than love,” they agreed with that too.

He was trying to show how what you think is just common sense usually isn’t. Often, when students and journalists and laypeople hear about the results of scientific study, they say, “Yeah, no shit.”

Teigen showed this is just hindsight bias at work.

Source: Isobel T

You are always looking back at the person you used to be, always reconstructing the story of your life to better match the person you are today.

You have needed to keep a tidy mind to navigate the world ever since you lived in jungles and on savannas. Cluttered minds got bogged down, and the bodies they controlled got eaten.

Once you learn from your mistakes, or replace bad info with good, there isn’t much use in retaining the garbage, so you delete it.

This deletion of your old incorrect assumptions de-clutters your mind. Sure, you are lying to yourself, but it’s for a good cause.

You take all you know about a topic, all you can conjure up on the spot, and construct a mental model. As Baruch Fischhoff at Carnegie Mellon said, this is “good for some things (looking forward with a full set of beliefs), but bad for others (reconstructing previous perspectives).”

Fischhoff was one of the first researchers to pinpoint the mechanisms of hindsight bias. He put together a study right before President Nixon left for China.

He asked people what they thought the chances were for certain things to happen on his trip. Later, once the trip was over, knowing the outcomes, people remembered their statistical assumptions as being far more accurate than they were.

The Washington Post interviewed Fischhoff in 2006, and found him still hard at work exploring the implications of hindsight bias:

“…Americans who made estimates about their danger after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks recalled having made much lower estimates of risk a year later, after their fears failed to materialize.”

Washington Post, 2006

Hindsight bias is a close relative of the availability heuristic. You tend to believe anecdotes and individual sensational news stories are more representative of the big picture than they are. If you see lots of shark attacks in the news, you think, “Gosh, sharks are out of control.” What you should think is, “Gosh, the news loves to cover shark attacks.”

The availability heuristic shows you make decisions and think thoughts based on the information you have at hand while ignoring all the other information that might be out there.

You do the same thing with Hindsight Bias by thinking thoughts and making decisions based on what you know now, not what you used to know.

“…people’s need to be right is stronger than their ability to be objective.”

N. Crawford, The American Psychological Association

Knowing hindsight bias exists should arm you with healthy skepticism when politicians and businessmen talk about their past decisions.

Also, keep it in mind the next time you get into a debate online or argument with a boyfriend or girlfriend, husband or wife – the other person really does think they were never wrong, and so do you.
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julius · Jun 17, 2010

I knew you were going to post something like this.

PtldPlatypus · Jun 17, 2010

Also, keep it in mind the next time you get into a debate online or argument with a boyfriend or girlfriend, husband or wife – the other person really does think they were never wrong, and so do you.
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I don't believe I've ever seen a quote which more accurately sums up this forum than this one.

julius said: ↑

I knew you were going to post something like this.
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I knew the first response would be something like this.

julius · Jun 17, 2010

PtldPlatypus said: ↑

I don't believe I've ever seen a quote which more accurately sums up this forum than this one.

I knew the first response would be something like this.
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I saw that coming.

BLAZER PROPHET · Jun 17, 2010

julius said: ↑

I knew you were going to post something like this.
Click to expand...

Well I knew someone was going to make a post like this one.

PtldPlatypus · Jun 17, 2010

julius said: ↑

I saw that coming.
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Of course you did--I wouldn't expect anything less.

LittleAlex · Jun 17, 2010

I love that blog as well. Good stuff.

BGrantFan · Jun 17, 2010

I'm too Pritchblinded to read anything more than short sentence fragments. Can somebody translate this for me?

RR7 · Jun 17, 2010

BGrantFan said: ↑

I'm too Pritchblinded to read anything more than short sentence fragments. Can somebody translate this for me?
Click to expand...

I am too. Sorry. I saw calm culture waters.

Masbee · Jun 17, 2010

PtldPlatypus said: ↑

Of course you did--I wouldn't expect anything less.
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It is so like you to post this.

Minstrel · Jun 17, 2010

Hindsight bias is just common sense, so thanks for posting the obvious.

Sug · Jun 17, 2010

BGrantFan said: ↑

I'm too Pritchblinded to read anything more than short sentence fragments. Can somebody translate this for me?
Click to expand...

Now you are Sugblind, I am so in your head. I am really sorry that happened, but I guess my posts have a power over you.

BGrantFan · Jun 17, 2010

Sug said: ↑

Now you are Sugblind, I am so in your head. I am really sorry that happened, but I guess my posts have a power over you.
Click to expand...

Huh? Did somebody say something? I'm busy polishing my Pritchard statue. Please leave a message.

jlprk · Jun 18, 2010

Let's not lose sight of the hind...

The hottest name at the trade deadline? A guy who hasn't played a game this season: Raef LaFrentz of the Portland Trail Blazers.

"If you asked owners in the league who they'd rather have right now, LaFrentz or Stoudemire, I think more than half of them would prefer LaFrentz," one executive told me. "That's how screwed up this thing has been. I guarantee you [Blazers GM] Kevin Pritchard has gotten better offers for LaFrentz than the Suns have gotten for Stoudemire."

That might have been confirmed Monday when the Suns' interest in trading Stoudemire cooled dramatically. Some of that has to do with the hope that new coach Alvin Gentry will inject some life into the listless Suns. But much of it has to do with the fact that the Suns haven't gotten a great offer for Stoudemire.

Meanwhile, sources confirm that the Blazers have been getting a steady flow of offers for LaFrentz, including two significant new ones Monday.

The focus for the Blazers right now appears to be at the small forward position. It appears that three players -- Gerald Wallace, Caron Butler and Richard Jefferson -- are on Pritchard's radar screen. A fourth one, Mike Miller, is also a favorite of the Blazers, but the Wolves have been reluctant to include him in a deal.

Sources say the Blazers have intensified their focus on Wallace. He's young, athletic and physical, and he doesn't need to score to be an impact player. He has four years and $38 million left on his contract, which is a lot, but given his age and production the past few years, it's not unreasonable. The problem for the Blazers is that the Bobcats want Portland to take back Nazr Mohammed as part of the deal. That could be a deal-breaker for Pritchard.

Butler might be the best player of the group when he's healthy. He was an All-Star last year and is excellent in the mid-range game. He too has a reasonable contract, with just two years and $21 million left on his deal. But it's unclear what the Wizards would want in return and whether they'll ultimately opt to keep Butler and reevaluate the team when Gilbert Arenas returns. If the Wizards are to make such a deal, certainly they'll want the Blazers to take back Etan Thomas' contract, and they'll likely also demand one or two young players from the Blazers. That price might be too high for Portland.

Jefferson is the most available. The Bucks need to clear his salary from their cap if they're going to re-sign their two restricted free agents this summer: Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions. Sources say there have been conversations that have included both Jefferson and Milwaukee point guard Luke Ridnour, though the talk has quieted down. As a proven scorer and defender who's played in the NBA Finals, Jefferson has some appeal for the Blazers.

One wild card for the Blazers is Vince Carter. His contract is the most expensive of the group, but Carter has been fantastic this season and would give the Blazers the biggest bang of anyone out there. It appears unlikely the Blazers will go that direction, but New Jersey would certainly listen if Portland wanted to do a deal.
Click to expand...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=TradeTalk-090217

Amare, Caron, Jefferson, Carter...the choices were endless.

barfo · Jun 18, 2010

BGrantFan said: ↑

Huh? Did somebody say something? I'm busy polishing my Pritchard statue.
Click to expand...

That's supposed to make you go blind, not deaf.

barfo

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Semi-OT:Hindsight Bias

Sug Well-Known Member

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