This builds off my article NBA Draft Measurements: Drafting by Numbers to actually grade draft prospects based on their size and athleticism. Now obviously this grading system is ONLY about the numbers. I'm not suggesting that skills, intangible desires, levels of competition and whatnot should be ignored. I'm simply trying to evaluate the things we actually have numbers for. Also, I wouldn't be too freaked out by an occasional low number. The combine results themselves are single measures performed once. So if a guy doesn't do well on a particular drill, but you think it was simply an isolated misfire, that's fine too. Keep it in mind when judging his grade. Call it the Kevin Durant exception, since he famously did poorly on the athletic drills a while back but is obviously a hell of an athlete. That being said, the grades players get are for how they measure out. Step 1, computer an overall grade for height, wingspan, standing reach, standing vertical jump, maximum vertical jump, lane agility and 3/4 court sprint. Grades are as follows A+ (4.25 points) for scoring above 1 standard deviation of the average for successful players at his position A (4 points) for scoring between .5 and 1 SDs above the average of successful players at his position. B (3 points) for scoring between .5 above and the average of successful players at his position. C (2 points) for scoring between .5 below and the average of successful players at his position. D (1 point) for scoring between -.5 and -1 SDs below the average of successful players at his position. F (0 points) for scoring more than 1 SD below the average of successful players at his position. For example, the average standing vertical for successful centers is 29.75 inches, and the standard deviation is 2.58 inches. This makes the grades for centers A+>= 32.33 A > 31.04 B > 29.75 C >28.46 D >= 27.17 F < 27.17 In plain English, a guy who merits an A+ show's he's at the upper end of what players who've proven successful can do. A guy who merits an F shows he jumps quite a bit less well than the sort of guys he'll be playing against. Maybe I'm a tough grader, but a guy who has a B average (>3.0) is going to be a relatively good athlete compared to successful NBA players. A C athlete (>2.0) should still be able to keep up. You might like better, but if he's highly skilled, then I wouldn't worry about him (e.g. Evan Turner) A guy who's less than 2.0 might have some problems. So, stat by stat: Standing Vertical Code: A+ A B C D 1 0.5 Average -0.5 -1 C 32.33 31.04 29.75 28.46 27.17 PF 32.45 31.12 29.80 28.48 27.15 SF 33.32 31.74 30.17 28.59 27.02 SG 33.38 32.42 31.46 30.51 29.55 PG 33.69 32.18 30.67 29.15 27.64 Max Vertical Code: A+ A B C D 1 0.5 Average -0.5 -1 C 35.50 34.25 33.00 31.75 30.50 PF 36.97 35.37 33.76 32.16 30.55 SF 38.57 37.04 35.50 33.96 32.43 SG 39.27 37.81 36.36 34.90 33.45 PG 39.90 38.00 36.09 34.18 32.27 Lane Agility Code: A+ A B C D 1 0.5 Average -0.5 -1 C 11.06 11.35 11.65 11.94 12.24 PF 11.01 11.28 11.54 11.81 12.08 SF 11.05 11.27 11.48 11.70 11.92 SG 10.61 10.86 11.10 11.35 11.59 PG 10.68 10.87 11.07 11.26 11.46 Sprint Code: A+ A B C D 1 0.5 Average -0.5 -1 C 3.22 3.29 3.36 3.43 3.49 PF 3.18 3.23 3.28 3.33 3.39 SF 3.16 3.21 3.26 3.30 3.35 SG 3.09 3.14 3.19 3.23 3.28 PG 3.08 3.12 3.17 3.21 3.26 Height (in bare feet) Code: A+ A B C D 1 0.5 Average -0.5 -1 C 84.52 83.59 82.67 81.74 80.81 PF 81.17 80.53 79.89 79.24 78.60 SF 79.39 78.84 78.28 77.72 77.17 SG 77.69 76.91 76.13 75.35 74.57 PG 74.70 73.72 72.75 71.78 70.80 Wingspan Code: A+ A B C D 1 0.5 Average -0.5 -1 C 89.15 88.06 86.96 85.86 84.77 PF 87.26 86.33 85.41 84.49 83.56 SF 85.55 84.51 83.47 82.43 81.39 SG 83.13 81.96 80.78 79.61 78.44 PG 80.08 78.64 77.20 75.76 74.32 Standing Reach Code: A+ A B C D 1.0 0.5 Aveg (0.5) (1.0) C 112.4 111.2 110.1 108.9 107.7 PF 109.4 108.4 107.5 106.5 105.5 SF 107.3 106.0 104.6 103.3 101.9 SG 103.6 102.5 101.4 100.2 99.1 PG 100.9 99.0 97.1 95.1 93.2 So for each player, his raw size and athleticism score is the average of these scores. Step 2 is to look at what measures are important for which positions. As I discussed in the analysis article, some measures tend to be more important for different positions. So based on that analysis, we create a second score that takes the average grades only for the measures we find are actually important for the position. That is, each position is graded only these factors: Code: HT WS SR SV MV LA 34S C Yes Yes Yes Yes PF Yes Yes Yes Yes SF Yes Yes SG Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes PG Yes Yes Yes The final step is to average these two grades. I'll plainly admit I don't have a good measure of the right way to combine these two scores, so I weighted it .67 to .33 based on position. Scoring well at your position, I'm going to guess, is roughly twice as important as scoring well overall. As time goes on, I'd like to refine this. So anyway, lets apply it to the 2010 draft. Who are the best athletes? Well, here's the list: Code: full name pos exp.dr oa Pos.G Raw.G G.HT G.WS G.SR G.NSV G.MV G.LA G.34S Derrick Favors PF 4 3.96 4.13 3.64 A A+ A+ A A C B Wesley Johnson SF 3 3.87 4.00 3.61 C A A A A B A+ Stanley Robinso SF 31 3.40 3.50 3.21 B B A+ A C B Derrick Favors C 4 3.29 3.56 2.75 F B C A A+ C A Ekpe Udoh C 6 3.24 3.56 2.61 F A F B B A+ A John Wall PG 1 3.23 3.00 3.68 A+ A+ A+ C A A B Ekpe Udoh PF 6 3.22 3.31 3.04 A A+ C B C A C Jarvis Varnado PF 42 3.13 3.38 2.64 B A+ A+ C C C D Armon Johnson PG 36 3.10 3.00 3.29 A A A B A C C Xavier Henry SG 11 3.07 3.07 3.07 A A+ A+ F B B B Luke Babbitt SF 10 2.88 3.00 2.64 A+ C C C A A+ F Larry Sanders PF 15 2.88 3.19 2.25 A+ A+ A+ F F F B Ed Davis PF 9 2.83 2.75 3.00 A D B B A C A Al-Farouq Aminu SF 8 2.68 2.63 2.79 A A+ A+ D D B C Damion James SF 17 2.68 2.50 3.04 C A A C D A+ A Xavier Henry SF 11 2.52 2.50 2.57 D C B D B A A Al-Farouq Aminu PF 8 2.48 2.50 2.43 C A A F C B C Paul George SF 12 2.47 2.00 3.42 A+ C A Terrico White SG 32 2.46 2.46 2.46 C B C C A+ D B Greg Monroe PF 7 2.46 2.81 1.75 A+ B A F F F D Mikhail Torranc SG 40 2.36 2.36 2.36 A+ A A+ F F D B Patrick Patters PF 13 2.36 2.25 2.57 B C C C C A B Greivis Vasquez SG 28 2.33 2.33 2.33 A D C Evan Turner SG 2 2.18 2.18 2.18 A+ C A F D B D James Anderson SG 20 2.18 2.18 2.18 B C A+ D C F B Wesley Johnson PF 3 2.05 1.75 2.64 F C D A A+ B A+ Craig Brackins PF 35 2.00 2.00 2.00 B D A F B C D Damion James PF 17 1.77 1.50 2.32 F C C C C A+ A Avery Bradley SG 18 1.71 1.71 1.71 F D F B B D A Lance Stephenso SG 41 1.71 1.71 1.71 B A A F F D F Cole Aldrich C 14 1.71 1.50 2.14 D A A F F B B Devin Ebanks SF 38 1.63 1.50 1.89 A B A+ F F C F Jordan Crawford SG 27 1.57 1.57 1.57 D D C B D B F James Anderson SF 20 1.57 1.50 1.71 F F C C B D A Gani Lawal PF 39 1.57 1.50 1.71 C D B F D C B Mikhail Torranc PG 40 1.45 1.00 2.36 A+ A A+ F F D B Trevor Booker PF 34 1.44 1.00 2.32 F F D B A A A+ Larry Sanders C 15 1.30 1.00 1.89 D A+ A F F F A Derrick Caracte PF 52 1.29 1.50 0.86 B D C F F F F Dominique Jones SG 24 1.29 1.29 1.29 D B C F F B F Evan Turner SF 2 1.29 1.00 1.86 C F C D C A C Gordon Hayward SF 16 1.29 1.00 1.86 B F D B C D B Darington Hobso SF 33 1.24 1.00 1.71 D F C C C C B Hassan Whitesid C 23 1.14 0.75 1.93 C A+ A+ F D C F Greg Monroe C 7 1.10 1.00 1.29 C C D F F D B DeMarcus Cousin C 5 1.10 0.75 1.79 D A+ A+ F F B F Daniel Orton C 30 0.98 0.75 1.43 F A B F D F C Solomon Alabi C 21 0.54 - 1.61 B A A+ F F F F Willie Warren SG 37 0.43 0.43 0.43 F F D F F C F Eric Bledsoe SG 19 0.33 0.33 0.33 F D F Derrick Caracte C 52 0.21 0.25 0.14 F F F F D F F Eric Bledsoe PG 19 3.00 C A B Greivis Vasquez PG 28 4.17 A+ A A+ So here are some basic thoughts: 1. Derrick Favors and Wes Johnson are absurd. Draft them! 2. Stanley Robinson worth a flier as a later pick. Sure. 3. Coupled with his other issues, Cousins is a walking red flag in the high lottery
