Oden, have you given up on him? What would make you believe?

What would make you give up hope?

I'm including a poll because I'm a bit shocked at all the negativity towards him. When he was healthy and in good shape (read first 1/3 of 2009/10 season) he contributed at a very high level.

People think Roy is great and with good reason. However, its like people aren't concerned about his health or feel that his past performance trumps any health issues he may have now or recently.

This seems like a double standard to me. You need to base your faith in someone on whether or not they perform when given the chance and they are healthy. Nobody bags on Roy's playoff performance because people understand he was really injured. How is this any different then Oden's 2008/09 performance where he was hobbled by injuries and never really got in shape?

I understand the extreme HORROR everyone feels about Oden's injuries, that really goes without saying, what blows me away is people who think he won't contribute if healthy.

So where do you stand?

 

I loved his pick - and loved his contributions last year before his injury, I think at the time I had some data that showed that Oden was the best defensive player in the league, bar none.

It comes down to health with Oden - and it is up to him to get to a reasonable weight that will help him stay on the court and contribute for long periods of time.

 

I absolutely agree with this. Weight might be the key for Oden. From the looks of it he has a lot of work to do. I think his upper body is a bit too big. Also, I think he needs to have his diet really monitored. He eats garbage all the time and I think that effects his fatigue and overall health.

 

IF he's healthy, you can't vote for anything other than 20+ PER because that's what he gave last season when he was playing

 

Loud minority is what you've seen.

 

It is unlikely that I will move to the "trade Oden" or "cut-bait on Oden" camp. The reason is that the reward-to-risk ratio on Oden is so high. There will never (IMO) be a reason to trade Oden for a consistently average player, which is probably about what Oden's trade value currently is. We won't get a piece to put us over the top for an often-injured player.

The Blazers would not be serious championship contenders if you replace Oden with an average center, so what do we gain? A few more regular season wins, and another early playoff exit. Marginal improvement.
However, if Oden does stay healthy, we are serious championship contenders for the length of his healthiness.

IMO, it is like this:

I have a Powerball ticket with every number matching, waiting for the last number to show up. Somebody offers me $1 for the ticket. I decline because that extra $1 doesn't get me anything useful, and the reward for getting the last number matching, even if it isn't great odds, is worth millions.

 

In the ten remaining games of his career, before his entire body spontaneously explodes, Greg Oden will average 20 points, 20 rebounds and 5 blocks in the 15 foul-plagued mpg he manages.

 

I assume you are in the Oden sucks camp. So vote your heart.

 

He actually had far superior stats to Brandon Roy WHILE he played. 23.1 PER and amazing defensive rating of 100.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/odengr01.html

Look at the 2009/10 stats. They were freaking awesome. I believe he was the best defensive player IN THE LEAGUE for those 21 games. Also his True Shooting percentage was incredible especially as he was the 3rd option at best.

 

Greg Oden will rock the house. Bank on it.

 

His baseline is Arvydas Sabonis. Obviously not in skills, but in impact from the center position. 20+ PER every night, but maybe only 20-25 mpg. Out for 20-30 games a season. Hopefully ready for the playoffs.

That, to me, is a worst case scenario. (Well, the absolute worst is he gets a career-ending injury. But that's true of any player.)

In a best-case scenario, his injury problems are history and he becomes Dwight Howard 2.0.

Most likely he winds up somewhere in the middle.

 

This is why I voted for "all-star level production".

Oden was approaching being dominant during the minutes he played. That is without having played many games or developing his offensive tools. If he stays healthy, every part of his game will only get better and he will be a dominant player.

 

Quite the opposite. I've tempered my expectations, but still think he'll be solid. I picked 20+ PER.

EDIT: I think he can easily be an all-star though, health-pending of course.

 

If we're talking best-case scenario, with no more injury issues, I think he will be a better overall player than Howard. Yeah, maybe I'm a homer.

 

As noted, it all depends on his health. As the poll is worded I marked all star because while he's playing that's the level I believe he'll be when he's healthy.

It's not fair though to compare him to Roy and his injuries. Roy has had some minor injuries while Oden has had two out of three seasons end with a injury and part of the third he had injuries. Talking apples and bananas.

 

I agree with this. The injuries have been maddening but let us not forget ALL the experts said that 2007 was the 2nd most important draft of the previous 12 years or so due to Oden. His physical gifts are seriously without peer in the league. His athleticism was a shade lower then Howard's and his length and BBIQ much, MUCH higher. If Oden is healthy we challenge the lakers its that simple. Well Roy has to be healthy too.

 

I agree it's difficult to compare due to those factors. I guess I've been annoyed how some of the same folks that dog Oden give Roy a pass. Roy's health has been extremely checkered as well and believe it or not concerns me MORE then Oden's. Talus bone, Knees, Hamstring. All serious problems that don't look to get better unlike bones. If people are going to say Roy is great even though he wasn't healthy during the playoffs they ought to say Oden too is great. Both have to be healthy or else it doesn't matter. Need to be consistent with standards. I think severe and understandable disappointment with Oden color's people's perceptions unfairly.

 

It's certainly unlikely that Roy's apples can compare with what we know of Oden's banana.

 

I agree. His best case scenario is the same defense and rebounding of Howard (because he's already shown that kind of ability) and a superior offensive game to Howard, who's offensive game still consists of wide open dunks, put-backs and overpowering the occasional way undersized defender. That's where Oden's offensive game is now with, hopefully, years of development still ahead of him.

I've said it before, but I think Oden's ceiling is a Tim Duncan caliber player (though he won't resemble Duncan in style). A fantastic defender and rebounder who was also a major go-to guy on offense (but not utterly dominant on the offensive end).

As for this poll, since health is assumed, I voted for All-Star level. He was already there per-minute last year, he just didn't play enough. If he can cut down on the fouls, he should definitely be All-Star caliber. A PER over 20 with great defense would make him one of the two best centers in the league (Yao would be his biggest competition, Bynum could also challenge).