Oden, have you given up on him? What would make you believe?

LMAO repped!

 

He's gotta stay on the floor. Injuries and foul trouble are the only thing standing in his way really. Even if he doesn't develop a good offensive game, he can still achieve Dwight Howard status.

 

For me this is the last year that I remain optimistic about Oden. If he can't perform this year, my black #52 jersey goes in a box.

 

>>>IF<<<Oden is healthy, he will contribute at a high level. I don't think anybody actually denies that - unless you count people like me who think he will never be a scoring machine.

Seriously, you are showing your youth here. Bowie was a very productive player - when he was healthy. Same with Steve Johnson. In fact, you could honestly say that in some respects they were both better players than Oden! The obvious catch, is that they were injured so much, it undermined team success. I'm betting that is ALL that anybody cares about.

As for what would make me give up hope - that ship has already sailed. Last season was make-or-break for me. He broke.

 

With the assumption of health and Oden playing as well as he did prior to the injury last season, he will have a very good chance of making the all-star team.
He will certainly put Portland amongst the top 5 defensive teams in the league.
He will lead the league in offensive boards and be in the top 5 overall.
Once the team realizes that freezing him out of the offense is insane, he will average around 15 points a game, 11+ rebounds and 2+ blocks.

Skies the limit for Oden.

 

But they were actually much worse players.

Bowie's career best season was 16.4 PER with 107 DRtg. Oden's two seasons so far produced 18.1 PER and 23.1 PER with a DRtg of 104 in his first season which fell to 100 in his second.

Steve Johnson's career best PER (which came before he became a Blazer) was 18.1 with a DRtg of 103. The vast majority of his career was significantly worse than that.

So while I take and agree with your point that ability only matters if the player actually plays, we're not talking about comparable talents when it comes to Oden and Bowie/Johnson. In addition, Bowie's injuries were of the career-altering type. Doctors have said Oden's aren't. If you want to be cynical, you can say "What do doctors know?" and "I'll believe it when I see it," which is fine. My point is simply that the information that we have right now doesn't support your comparisons. Yes, if Oden is never healthy, he'll be a wash-out. 20-30 great games a season doesn't a great career make. But, right now, there's no reason to believe his injuries will continue to be so much of a problem. There is reason to believe that his great performance when healthy will continue.

 

I'm trying to remain positive. The potential is still there, and we've all seen what Oden can do when he is healthy, but at this point I'm not sure if he can stay healthy. It's not a question of talent, it's a question of durability. Until GO can play the majority of a season without being seriously injured, it's going to be very hard to get excited.

 

Not to derail the thread, but a serious question - were you old enough to actually watch those guys play? You'll note that I said *in some respects* they were better than Oden.

That defensive rating for Bowie must not be pace adjusted, because anyone who actually saw him play would tell you he was as good or better than Oden on defense. He was also an *outstanding* passer for a big man. In terms of passing/playmaking/ball movement, he was on par with Sabonis - and certainly better than Oden.

As for Steve Johnson, he was described as having the second best (to McHale) low post moves in the league. Constantly trying to play through injuries distorted his PER. If he had been the type of guy who only played when he was close to 100%, his PER would have been in the 20 range.

There were also areas of their games where they were not as good (potentially) as Oden. Physically, Steve Johnson was an injury riddled Al Jefferson. A healthy Oden would no doubt be a better rebounder and defender. Bowie was a decent, not great rebounder, and wasn't all that special as a scorer.

Of course, none of this is really relevant to the subject. My apologies to the TS.

 

I watched the NBA through Bowie's entire career. I'm not old enough to have seen Johnson's early career and I don't remember the guy even though I watched the NBA during most of his career (I was a kid in the '80s).

On the other hand, while observation is worthwhile for certain things, it's also extremely unreliable. Human memory has all sorts of flaws, flaws that make precise comparisons virtually impossible just from human perception. Even for experts, "seeing" the slight difference in efficiency that can separate a superstar from a merely good player can be extremely difficult. For an amateur (as we all are), it's pretty close to impossible without use of stats. And when doing it from 20 year old memories...I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it (whether it's my memories at question or yours).

I caught that. My comment that they were actually worse players was meant to be bottom line...after factoring in all aspects.

I certainly don't recollect Bowie being a defensive superstar. Very solid defender, sure. And DRtg is per 100 possessions, so pace is not relevant. It's not per game. There's nothing surprising about Oden, who's defense has been lauded as amazing for as long as he's been a prospect and who has visually had great defensive effect in the NBA, being a superior defender to Bowie.

Bowie was a great passer, much better than Oden, and that actually is incorporated in the numbers, as his Assist Rate dwarfs Oden's. He still didn't have the overall PERs of Oden.

In any case, I'm not disputing that each had facets where they were better than Oden (at least, at Oden's current level), but I don't think that makes Bowie/Johnson useful comparisons to Oden. Oden was universally considered a fabulous talent and his play when healthy has borne that out. Neither Bowie nor Johnson were considered the same level of talent. In addition, while I don't know much about Johnson's injuries, Bowie's injuries were of a different type that Oden's are believed to be...injuries that changed Bowie's ability and made him more prone to injury. At this point in time, that's not believed to be the case with Oden's.

So, I think it's reasonably on-topic, actually. The thread is about what we should expect from Oden and you are using historical comparisons to argue "not much." I simply disagree that they are useful comparisons.

 

I think his ceiling is significantly different today.

What made him such a great prospect, other than his size, was his athletic ability.

He had a no-step vertical of 32-inches coming into his rookie year, I'm willing to bet that when he comes back from this latest injury it's probably around the early-to-mid 20's. He's not the same prospect, not even close.

 

I would argue you are showing your age as well. Your advanced age. If you take Oden's WORST year he is better then Bowie's BEST year.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bowiesa01.html

Bowie's best year he had a PER of 16.4 and his best ever defensive rating was 103 out of years Oden's worst defensive rating was 104 so Bowie edged him there. However, Oden's best year Defensive rating was 100 considerably better.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/odengr01.html

Oden's worst year PER was 18.1 a full 1.7 points better his miserable 2008/09 season where he was lambasted. His best year he had a 23.1 PER!!!

Oden absolutely destroys Bowie in every reasonable statistic except scoring and of course (sadly) games played.

Unless you are talking health (puke) Oden is on a whole different level. Terrible, awful perception not based in reality AT ALL.

 

You're watching a different sport if you think Bowie was better at defense then Oden when healthy. I'm sorry that's nuts. I remember quite well the horror of Bowie's injuries and while I doubt my recollection was as clear as yours (although maybe its wrong give the VAST gulf in measurable stats), you simply can't compare Oden and Bowie other then health and draft positions, Portland etc. As players they were wildly different. Oden is better in all aspects but scoring and is even better there by FAR efficiency wise.\

You are right that Bowie was a better passer. I will definitely give you that. If both are healthy and say 22 I take Oden and I don't have to think twice. It's that simple. Bowie is enormously underrated but stats don't lie.

 

This is silly. You have absolutely NOTHING to base the random number generator of "early-to-mid 20s", and then use that as evidence of how he's "not even close to the same prospect".

 

OK, well here is another stat to ponder. Bowie had a much lower foul rate than Oden, while having a better rate of blocked shots.

Blocked shots alone don't define defense, but the ability to play good help defense without getting into foul trouble is *part* of the picture - and Bowie was very good at that. Even when healthy, Oden has a frustrating tendency to take himself out of games with foul trouble.

At one time, Oden was leagues ahead of Bowie in physical tools. Bowie was more like a post-achilles-injury Sabonis.....it was his unusual court smarts that set him apart. Take injuries out of the equation, and they were completely different *types* of players.

 

Now everything you wrote here I agree with. Bowie was a very heady player with exceptionally high BBIQ.

Foul trouble I think is a problem that will lessen with time, fame and recognition for Oden. It is an issue to be sure and a weapon for the refs. For every hamfisted stupid hip-check foul there were some really ridiculous calls, especially in his rookie campaign.

 

I said rotation player, only because I believe that the way to keep him healthy is going to be to limit his minutes. As long as those minutes are high-quality ones, I've got no problem with that, especially with Marcus on the roster.

 

Um, he had rotation player minutes last year...and a 23.1 PER. PER doesn't care how many minutes you play. Just saying.

Voting rotation player means you think he will average about a 15 PER. That's what I meant anyways.

 

link? I've read just the opposite

btw to the OP... a 20+ PER is AS level production

STOMP

 

exactly... the poster mistakenly said "I think" when they should have said "I pulled out of my backside a guess based on nothing but my chicken little nature"

STOMP