Seems like the David Lee thread has about 5 topics going all at once so we'll keep the general David Lee discussion over there and make a new one here regarding general team discussion for the time being. Here's a great cap breakdown of the team: http://warriorsworks.blogspot.com/2010/07/financials-after-david-lee-trade.html Interesting how much cap room we could have next season. So after the Lee trade where should we go from here? Are we now in playoff contention and looking to get better? Who should we go after at the 3? Is this core as constructed a playoff contender? Do you think Riley is distancing himself from Nellie by going bigger?
Riley has at least shown that Nellie ball is dead and gone. Whoopee! The W's are simply treading water. Its better than the start of last year (think SJax, Maggette, Crawford, wow) but it could have been so much better. Okay maybe Lee at least helps, but the only impediment is whether he blocks the Ws from getting someone even better because his contract is too big. Maybe not, especially if Biedrins is traded. The huge factor is Curry. Does he become a rival for Paul/Williams? If so, the franchise is in good shape. If not, then its no better than the Dunleavy/Murphy/Foyle days. As you guys well know, I love Curry and cannot believe the good fortune of having him drop in our laps. I love his vision, the way he simply knows that fine line between passing and shooting/creating for yourself. That's a PG who makes others around him better, and I think that's the big long term difference between him and Tyreke Evans. It is a parallel to Nash and what a great comparison to have.
Four years of Curry, Lee, Ellis and Biedrins (though I still think the latter two could be moved and there's interest in them). Does that equal playoffs? Personally I think it's good for a bottom slot, if Curry continues to develop his game further and Biedrins returns to normal. I mean, Maggette had the most overall rebounds for our team last season. At least we improved in one area. We do need to rebuild depth, though, and addressing the 3 slot as you noted is the biggest concern, but I have no clue on Riley's plans. Thinking about this offseason, with 10 players under contract for now, we'll definitely need to fill out the roster, though maybe we'll end up with D-League filler again. The major influence on the 2011 cap room now will be what we do with Morrow and Watson, and if we decide to dip into the midlevel to sign a veteran small forward now. Some of the space (or maybe most of it) may be gone unless we fill out the roster with only 1-year contracts, and totally lose/renounce Morrow and Watson (unless we took back only 1-year contracts and draft picks, but who's going to offer that) and possibly renounce Wright in 2011. Signing a 2011 first rounder would be about $2 million. And, if we fill the midlevel exception now (a little over 5.5 million if we spend it all), that'll also eat into the cap. I'm not sure what we could get if we saved that cap space, though - we'd have a tiny edge on one mid-level player, but have to work even more to fill out the rest of the roster spots - but it would be very wise to save for 2012 instead now. As to the small forward spot, I still like Childress for this team, but I think his cost is too high. Re-signing Morrow as a 6th man seems a bit more important now that there will be more minutes at the 3 and behind Ellis.
I am in support of the David Lee trade and I hope to write something up on it, but for now I'll say that it will help the Warriors win more games. I think we have enough big men that bring different things to the table that the lack of defense Lee has can be made-up by other players. That's why it's a team game. I think keeping Monta was a huge plus. The disadvantage of having two small guards in the same backcourt still exists but I think Monta will play much better this coming season with a better team. There's no doubt in my mind that the Warriors are a better team now. We will just have to wait a few years to see who this trade really benefits more, but all in all I think it was an equitable trade. I do not think Lee's rather large contract will cripple the financial forecast of the team. As the table above shows, we actually have quite a lot of cap space going into the next couple seasons. Going back to Monta, I think he will eventually be shipped out. If I were to make a guess, it would be next off-season. He would have had one year of rehabilitating his reputation as a selfish, volume scorer to an efficient, off-ball, high FG% scorer. At this time, Ellis' value will be much higher than it is now, especially since it will be one less year of his salary off the books. We can get a more traditional SG as a replacement or whatever the team need is at that time.
I think the main driving question regarding the Warriors should always first be: how do we build around Curry? I really do think he is the franchise cornerstone for the next 10 years. First, I think the Lee trade definitely meets that question in a positive way, and it works for my long term vision of the team. You get a fantastic pick-n-roll player with a high IQ and one of the best assist per game players of all PFs and Cs in the league. Those two are going to have a lot of fun together. Oh, and he's a dominant rebounder and a bona fide 20 point scorer to boot. As far as the rest of the roster, it seems like many people have been saying GS does not have a SF, but does anyone remember Reggie Williams' emergence last year? He's already pegged as the starter at SF, in my mind, and a dang good one. He already proved he plays well with Curry, which is my main concern. And he's cheap! The one player that I don't feel 100% comfortable is Monta Ellis. However, at $11 mils, he is an exceptional value with 25/5/4. His trade value should be through the roof right now, but apparently it isn't. It's not that I don't like Monta, it's just that I wonder if we could use his value to address my main question above. I mean, the two obviously play pretty well together, but Monta does like the ball in his hands a lot, and frankly I want the ball in Curry's hands, ala Nash and CP3, as much as possible. If GS could get a terrific outside shooter at the SG, and maybe another piece or something, for Monta, that might be good. I was thinking it would be good to try and go after Mike Miller, but apparently the Heat are going to sign him. I am also still in favor of the OJ Mayo/Thabeet/Hadaddi for Monta trade, as I created a whole separate thread about this. You get a risk-free Mayo experiment -- all three players are expiring, so the wost case scenario you still get $11 mils cap space, but Mayo is pretty damn intriguing and studly, and would fit well with Curry IMO. I really like our post picture: with Lee/Wright at the PF and Biedrins/Udoh at the C. That works for me for now. I was excited to watch Randolph develop, but I'm still excited to watch Wright and Udoh develop. And to watch Curry/Lee develop together. 1) Curry/Bell 2)Monta 3)Reggie Williams 4)Lee/Wright 5)Biedrins/Udoh I like Charlie Bell at the back-up PG. Apparently, he is a very good perimeter defender, and he'll be a good influence on Steph. I think Morrow fits very well with Curry, as a spot up shooter, and now he'll work very well with Lee, who is an excellent passer out of the post. I think GS should look to match on Morrow and bring him back. Really, I like everything about this team right now. GS doesn't have any liability players. Every player on their roster is an asset, IMO. Even the two guys who suck, Radmonovic and Gadzuric, are $14 mils in expiring contracts, and thus very valuable assets as well. No more Mags, Jax, Craw... Every player on the roster has good value IMO. I think GS should look to address the SG/SF position now. There are some possible MLE ideas. I have heard Ronnie Brewer's name mentioned. However, I have bigger ideas. I want to see GS trade Monta -- but make a terrific trade value-wise -- to get a back court that fits with Steph Curry. It might not be possible, but it would be nice. Maybe GS could do Monta for a sign-n-trade Ronnie Brewer + OJ Mayo? It would work $$ wise. GS gets Brewer, who they have apparently wanted, plus Mayo. Curry Mayo Brewer Lee Biedrins That's interesting to me. Or maybe there's another value-efficient Monta trade out there?
I'm not sold on Reggie as a full time 3. He's 6'4 in shoes: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Reggie-Williams-1232/ Also not a great athlete AND he would have to play next to some other small guards.
I think the SF is going to be very critical in getting the starting lineup to work together. I think the perfect SF would be Shane Battier or perhaps someone like him, if there is one. He does all the small things that helps win games, which would go perfectly with what the team has. He can defend, shoot, handle the ball, get some boards, etc. I just would be cautious with his recent injury and perhaps age. It may be helpful to bring back Chris Hunter because I do not like Udoh as the projected backup center and think we may need someone to backup the spot with Gadzuric. I like Udoh/Wright more as backup PFs at this moment in time. Also filling up the depth charts may be another challenge after the trade and potential loss of free agents. It's really unfortunate that Udoh will miss the summer league. I am crossing my fingers that Wright stays healthy and performs very well.
Agreed. The Warriors do not have a single true SF. I wouldn't even call Reggie Williams an undersized SF. He's a SG and SG only. I kinda agree and disagree about bringing back Chris Hunter. Yes, he would help shore up a 3-man rotation at the center spot. We all know how critical it is to have bodies. But, I really think the Warriors just need to move forward with their young guys, even if they have to play out of position. Getting on the floor and getting game experience is more important. For sure David Lee is going to play C down the stretch over AB just because of his free throw ability (or AB's lack of FT ability).
No idea but I reckon Mayo and Thabeet are getting 3-5 million a season since they were both very high draft picks. Mayo probably due for an extension in a season or two. Wonder what kind of numbers our "core" will put up next season. I'll project Curry at 17 pts, 7.5 apg with good steals and rebounds. Monta at 21 ppg with ok assist and rebound numbers. Lee around 18 ppg with 11 rebounds again and Beans at about 10/9/1.5 bpg. Looks good statistically but we have a big question mark at SF and our bench is somewhat depleted. So can this club compete for the POs? The west just lost Boozer and Amare. So we're talkin LA, Denver, SA, Dallas, OKC, Portland with pretty good clubs as it is. PHX, Utah, LAC (Blake Griffin), NOH, and Memphis could be competitive as well. Lots of competition but how would this team stack up?
Mayo is making $4.5 mils Thabeet is making $4.8 mils Haddadi is making $1.6 mils Click here to see the trade scenario: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2g3h3or The Warriors cap-situation improves dramatically with this trade. Basically because all three of those Memphis players are expiring contracts. The money is even this year, so it doesn't change, but then after the season, GS could resign Mayo to something like $8 mils per year, if he pans out, and they could let the other 2 guys walk. Or, GS could trade any one of the three because they will be valuable prospects / expiring contracts. I would do that trade. But I would also consider other Monta trades that land us good value SGs and SFs...
Yeah, that's tough question. Looking at the standings, I just don't see how GS can crack the top 8. But that's okay, it's why you play the games. Also, I think the GS vision is solid right now -- I don't think they expect to be world-beaters next year. I think the plan is to let Curry mature into an all-star, and surround him with a supporting cast of smart players who can move the ball. Even though we have been in rebuild mode forever, I think this will stil be another developmental year, but the big bonus is there are no vets to slow that down! No more rebuilding AND having Corey Maggette to bog us down. No more Crawford. No more Jax. Heck, as much as I loved him, no more Turiaf! I don't think Udoh would've gotten many minutes with Turiaf around. Now, we REALLY get to see the core develop (whatever that is). Wright will get heavy backup minutes, and Udoh should get decent back-up minutes, and Curry will be the man. Honestly, I think that's why I'm in favor of trading Monta. I don't want him being the man. I want it to be completely Curry's team. It doesn't mean I don't want another star eventually. But I would want the right kind of stars. Not someone who will compete with Curry. Here's another sweet trade I would do with Minnesota: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2fjrrek Monta Ellis for Corey Brewer / Ramon Sessions / Wayne Ellington With Johnny Flynn and Rubio in Minny, maybe they would part with Sessions. We get 2 guards and a SF for Monta. We get a terrific PG in Sessions to mentor Curry (even though Sessions is only 24 and could blossom too). We get the 28th pick in the 2009 draft in Ellinton, who got run last year. And of course, we get Corey Brewer, who I really like, a 6'9" SF who can really get after it defensively. Minny gets a 25/5/4 guy to pair with their bigs. They have wanted Monta for a while, that's a trade I would do. http://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota.htm $$ wise, it's a smart trade too. Sessions is very reasonable. 3 years left at about $4 mils per year. Brewer is 1 year left, and then a Qualifying Offer for about $5 mils next year, which means he would be a RFA and we could match any offer. And Ellington, who got some good run for a rookie last year, has one year left, with team offers the next 2 years if we like him. So again, basically, we are getting a ton of cap room for Monta, with the options of keeping any one of these three guys if we wish. Man, I think I out-did myself with this trade this time! C'mon Riley!!!!
Nice, I like that. The Dubs would have about 5mil to play with after that. I still like the Mayo trade more, but either of these 2 puts the front office in a position to be in a nice place next season under new management.
Sessions is Charlie Bell with less mileage. He was an attractive mid-tier FA, then got paid big $$ and has not progressed, he is what he is, which is just a so-so player who is going to be a PT player with a long, expensive contract.
Yeah, I wouldn't do that trade and I like Sessions and Brewer. Brewer is a good defensive player, but is questionable offensively. Though he has been clearly improving as he did manage to shoot better as the season progressed, his turnovers still plagued him, so basically the balance is that every possession he stops defensively, he wastes some possessions on the offensive end (due to poor shot selection or turning it over). The only player I really like on the Wolves is Love, but we already locked in a ton of salary on Lee, and they play the same position.
Doctor Kajita, good call on David Lee taking minutes as the center. I did not think of that one. Why are we trying to dump Ellis for cap space? Ellis' contract is a bargain? Even with cap space, if we wanted someone decent we'd pay more than what Ellis is getting for him (see David Lee). Also Elington and Sessions are about the same height as Ellis. I am not sure how these two will be a better fit next to Curry than Ellis. Furthermore Ellis is about the same age as most of these TWolves. He may be only about a year or two older than them. I really think the Warriors should keep Ellis. Curry-Ellis-Lee will be dynamite.
I agree we shouldn't just "dump" Ellis. I'll go the Larry Riley route and say do not trade Ellis unless there's a good player on the other end. And I agree that we should keep Ellis and see if his experience from last year is a stepping stone for improvement/development in his weaknesses and also to see if a re-shuffled/improved roster will help mask some of his weaknesses. Plus, trading Ellis for anything but talent back is risky. In other words, don't do it to clear cap space. This off-season has been a clear example of how clearing cap space doesn't guarantee you squat. Ask NJ, NY, Chicago, etc. So, Carmelo Anthony is a UFA next season. So what? Anything can happen between then and now, including him signing an extension with the Nuggets or going somewhere else. I don't want the Warriors to be one of those teams preparing a damn presentation on why the Bay Area is so good in order to lure a top-tier FA like Melo. Although part of me says there won't be another FA craze like this one. If anything, trade Ellis when his value is higher. I think that would be half way into this season or after this season. I really do think he will be a better player this year and after this year, he will have one less year on his contract. He's a pretty good deal for other teams at that point.
I hope I don't get flamed for this one, but I can't believe this actually works! http://www.realgm.com/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=5606201 Warriors get that center they've always wanted, dump Ellis/Biedrins. Houston gets Steve Francis part 2 and a really good stop gap center. We get a class-act, smart, small forward defender. The players can be extended or just let the contracts expire. We trade smaller for bigger players, but also younger for older players. So maybe this is fair? I mean chemistry aside from their current team, Battier ain't getting any younger and Yao might be injury prone to guarantee max dollars. Plus, I don't know if Houston is designed to be halfcourt team with passing in mind. Team would be: pg: Steph Curry / ? sg: Reggie Williams / Charlie Bell sf: Shane Battier / ? pf: David Lee / Brandan Wright / Udoh c: Yao Ming / Dan Gadzuric Anyway, it's fun to talk about Team would be unathletic, but basketball-smart and unselfish at least.
