16/13/3. Book it. And that 16 is with him looking like Bambi on Ice on the offensive end, so if he develops any of the following--drop step, 12-foot jumper, a guard that can hit him on the roll-- that 16 will be close to 20.
He will be fine offensively. What I really want to see, and think we will with the addition of Batum, Wesley and Camby next to him - is a sub-100 DRTG. I think he can do it.
I was thinking the same thing only about gladiator. Awful film horribly stealing best picture from Crouching Tiger. Boooo.
Most of the time, though, it'll be Roy and Aldridge next to Oden (unless you want to try a Roy/Matthews/Batum perimeter). I actually think Aldridge is a pretty solid defensive player and a Batum/Aldridge/Oden front line will be tremendous defensively. It is nice to have Camby and Matthews as solid/excellent defenders to bring off the bench as necessary.
For reference, last year Greg averaged 11.1 PPG/8.5 RPG/2.3 BPG in 21 MPG (according to http://www.nba.com/playerfile/greg_oden/index.html?nav=page ) For 32 MPG, these become 16.9 PPG/13.0 RPG/3.5 BPG in 32 MPG so I'm going to go with 17/13/3 in 32 MPG The blocks won't exactly scale up as fewer will head toward the basket. (edit: which, interestingly, is basically what BrianFromWa said.) btw, I think that if he is able to play 32 MPG for 70+ games, we are definite title contenders.
Working under the assumption that nobody is stupid enough to take the #1 overall pick and the #3 center in the league in PER and #8 overall in the NBA in PER last year will getting better every game and have him come off the bench, then here are some of the numbers for Oden: I think he'll be a little less physical with the fear of the injury and the fears of the fouls, along with extra minutes to dilute the numbers and he'll likely get slightly lower Blocks Per36. I do think he was just beginning to find his offense and realizing how much of a mismatch he was against most of the league in the paint and will actually go up in Pts Per36 and become more of our 2nd scoring option than before. I think his minutes will go up with a completely changed line-up. This is primarily due to the fact that his fouls were 50% a product of poor defense by the backcourt players, and since he didn't have Batum while he was playing last year, he'll add Batum and Matthew's defense over guys like Rudy playing out of position. That will be huge and I'm projecting around 28-30 mpg next season. Given that, the simple math is: 15 pts / 11 reb / 2.5 blks. Bookmark it.
I wouldn't be surprised if he did...but on the other hand, I also wouldn't be surprised if he had another significant injury. Neither eventually would be unexpected to me. I think he has a solid chance to do either (unfortunately, in the second case).
Interesting. High hopes, I can't blame you. Upside would be nice to Oden. I just don't think after what's happened to his knee, that he is 100% healthy ever. It's hard for a player like that to come back and stay strong 8-10 years in the league after what's he's gone through, IMO.
Health, minutes, touches. That's all he needs. This year he has perimeter defense to keep him on the floor.
Of course, but Oden last year did play some time next to Outlaw, Howard and even Dante next to him, so having Camby replace these guys next to him is going to be a big upgrade, and again, he played next to Rudy in some lines, and having Rudy's questionable defense replaced by someone like Mattews - would be an upgrade. Of course, Batum over Webster/Blake in the first unit will be a bigger upgrade.
