ESPN reporting Lakers NOT in mix for Chris Paul

Discussion in 'Los Angeles Lakers' started by truebluefan, Jul 22, 2010.

  1. ivey

    ivey Member

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    HK, how would you explain that most of the NBA players say Kobe is the best player in the league? At least that's what I've heard over the years, I can't remember persons other than Barkley and journalists saying LeBron is the best player in the league. I would trust the one who's playing the game and going against them, not someone who probably hasn't played basketball in his life (journalists)


    On other notes, are we talking about right now or in the big picture? LeBron and Kobe got together in a silly time, LeBron's prime is when Kobe is going into his 30s which is a weak point in one's career, I would agree that probably right now LeBron is better but this has very much to do with Kobe's age. His stats haven't taken a big hit but you can see he has lost some of his explosiveness and maybe can't go over 50pts so often. Still I'm arguing about both's legacy and career, what have they done to the game and how they go into history.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2010
  2. huevonkiller

    huevonkiller Change (Deftones)

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    And those same jocks would fail terribly at trying to predict the future, or analyze the past compared to apbr people.

    Umm being athletic doesn't make you smart or an expert either. Jocks fail in the NBA all the time, I'm also interested in why you won't discuss this issue with me directly.

    I'm interested in the "why" not the "who" ("why do you think that, Mr. jock?" I would ask him).

    What matters is what history says years from now. Or what the more educated people on this subject think (people who can predict NBA seasons and explain their reasons with logic).
    You've contradicted yourself in this post though. Clearly you realize Kobe is in his off-peak and is inferior, and in his peak he didn't win titles.

    The big picture is something I've touched on already. I respect Kobe's career more in other seasons.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2010
  3. ivey

    ivey Member

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    He didn't win 2 titles in his prime but he was playing at a very high level. It was impossible for him to win titles in his prime (the option what LeBron had in Cleveland)

    If you put it like this, Jordan also wasn't at his prime when he won his last two rings, does that make him worse?
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2010
  4. huevonkiller

    huevonkiller Change (Deftones)

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    The larger point is that, prime doesn't equal titles. And best player doesn't always equal titles. Just one of the best.


    And yet his supporting cast played better, Lamar Odom's prime production in the post-season destroys what Mo did.

    Kobe's performance against the Suns was sub-par.

    So you're helping my case? Thanks.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2010
  5. bbwtrench

    bbwtrench BBW Member

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    I dont know how anyone could say Kobe's play is inferior..... Even on his worst days, he's better than 90% of the league....... ON his best days, he's the best on the planet. That hasnt changed much. Lebron and Wade would both agree too.
     
  6. ivey

    ivey Member

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    How am I helping your case? I think it's idiotic to say Jordan was inferior while winning his last two rings.
     
  7. huevonkiller

    huevonkiller Change (Deftones)

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    Did Kobe contribute like Jordan in his prime? No so you need to stop the comparison. Jordan's "off-peak" is also much higher than Kobe's, so it is idiotic to compare both.

    Jordan had better seasons where he didn't even get past the second round. You need teammates, you can't will an inexperienced high draft pick.

    Listen, if you can't understand the contradiction in your own post you're lost. You made the comment not me.

    He's clearly inferior now. He was much better before.

    Except this isn't supported by reality.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7043
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2010
  8. ivey

    ivey Member

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    So you would pick Jennings and Billups over Kobe if you need a leader in your team? At least thats what the stats say...
     
  9. huevonkiller

    huevonkiller Change (Deftones)

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    Wow you don't know how to read charts, or Trench's posts.

    "ON his best days, he's the best on the planet. That hasnt changed much."
     
  10. ivey

    ivey Member

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    I only watched who had better PER or whatever than Kobe, I'll probably never buy these advanced stats stuff. Anyways, what the stats say about Kobe performing in crunch time? Last I remember he wasn't in top 3 in these either ;D
     
  11. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    Celtics Defense vs Kobe

    Much was made of Kobe Bryants breakout performance in the 3q of yesterdays game. Doc Rivers called him the games best shot maker and I would have to agree with that assessment. It is also quite clear however that in the last 3 playoff seasons no team has defended Kobe Bryant better than the Celtics.

    An offensive metric that I really like to use is points per possession - this is much better than any offensive efficiency metric because it takes into account all of the possession altering offensive actions a player might make;

    (Shots, turnovers and fouls drawn)

    In the Lakers last 3 deep playoff runs 2008,2009 and this year through 5 games, Kobe Bryant has averaged

    1.00 ppp on 1936 actions.

    Which means that for every time Kobe Bryant has the ball and makes an offensive action (shot, turnover or shooting foul) he has netted roughly 1.00 points.


    If you take the Celtics out of the equation he has the following numbers;

    (every team he has faced in the playoffs in the past 3 years excluding the Celtics).

    1.03 ppp on 1597 actions.

    His numbers vs the Celtics in the 2008 and 2010 finals are as follows;

    .89 ppp on 339 actions.

    Which is a stark contrast from the 1.03 he has averaged vs every other team.

    Also interesting to note is that the Celtics have done an even better job on LeBron James.

    LeBron James vs all teams other than Boston in the last 3 playoffs;

    1.11 ppp on 752 actions

    vs the Celtics;

    .86 on 405 actions.


    http://aloneinthecorner.com/post/698948363/celtics-defense-vs-kobe

    I'll have more for you later HK.
     
  12. AKIRA

    AKIRA GO LAKERS!!!

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    HK, if you dislike the lakers and kobe so muych, what are you still doing here? why hang around us when its clear that this argument is never going to end, its a difference of opinion on basketball, it doesnt make you or any of the laker fans arguing with you, dumb or smart or whatever, its just a different opinion.

    you keep saying shit like, "thanks for the calm responce". first of all, stop being so passive agressive, its not good for promoting safe, fun, enjoyable discussion. also, dont act like such an authority on everything, sure you may pay a lot of attention to your sources, but so do others here. I for one have played and coached at a reasonably high level here in australia, and have had a pretty decent exposure to the workings of what makes teams, players and fans who they are. what i can tell from all your responses is you know a lot about the individual play of certain players within the nba. but whether you like it or not, its a team sport at the end of the day, if you want to argue and go on and on like you are doing then go join a discussion about tennis or something.

    your risking making yourself very unwelcome among laker fans, and later down the track you may come to regret being so argumentative and judgmental. we've all enjoyed discussing the nba with you, lets not tarnish it with endless arguments that go nowhere. basically agree to disagree.
     
  13. QuickShift

    QuickShift Revenge Is Coming

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    Are you saying you respect Lebron more than Kobe? If so, could you explain?
     
  14. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    HK here is what I was alluding to about the advancement in basketball analytics ...


    "Someone created the box score and he should be shot." -- Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey


    The state of basketball analytics remains far behind baseball's sabermetrics world, which caught fire a little under a decade ago. While Brad Pitt, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Jonah Hill get ready for their roles in the oft-delayed "Moneyball" movie, basketball analytics remain in the infant stages, attempting to outgrow the restrictive confines of the box score.

    After LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh teamed up in South Beach, we stand before one of the greatest basketball experiments ever assembled on the court. Unfortunately, the archaic box score framework will do little to illuminate the unique dynamics on the court. We can't grade the Miami trio's success based on who tallies the most points or who launches the most shots. Furthermore, Wade could easily have the team's highest scoring average next season but that achievement would hardly mean he contributed the most to winning games.


    The Heat will provide the ultimate test of ego management: Will James and Wade turn down a good shot for a better shot for their teammates? More to the point, will James and Wade sacrifice individual glory (scoring the most points) for the Heat's success?


    Win Probability Added would hold the answer.

    What is WPA? Starting with the beginning of a play, what is the probability of winning the game, given the situation? After the conclusion of that play, recalculate and debit/credit the player for the change in win probability. That's WPA. This is the essence of sport: each play contributes to a team's chances of reaching its collective goal of beating the other team.

    But here's the thing: WPA hasn't arrived in basketball. Sabermetrics expert Tom Tango created this ingenious metric for baseball and Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats fame has recently engineered it for the football masses. But the basketball world still lacks it.


    And we need it now more than ever.

    Imagine the following scenario. James brings up the ball into a halfcourt set. After coach Erik Spoelstra signals for the pick-and-roll, Bosh obediently jogs to the top of the key to set a high ball screen for James. James uses the hard pick to dribble away to the right wing, luring Mike Miller's defender from the right corner, sending Bosh rolling to the basket and leaving Wade to fill the top of the key.

    Hit the pause button.

    In this instant, James has four options to alter his team's chances of scoring:

    1) Pass to Miller for the open 3. (Miller shot 41-for-67 on open catch-and-shoots last season, according to Synergy Sports Technology)
    2) Hit Bosh for a layup. (Bosh scored in 73.3 percent of such situations)
    3) Hand the ball off to Wade to restart the offense. (Wade ranks as one of the top isolation scorers in the game)
    4) Take a pull-up jumper off the dribble. (James hit 37.4 percent of jumpers off screens)

    This pivotal moment captures the beauty of basketball. It would take even the sharpest analyst several minutes to collect all the available data at hand, design a decision tree, calculate the probabilities and finally arrive at a well-informed choice. But James has only a precious millisecond to make his move. And for most of James' career in Cleveland, the optimal choice for the Cavaliers often aligned with the optimal choice of his own -- take the shot.

    But as we all know, he's not in Cleveland anymore and it may not be a good idea to choose what's behind door No. 4. It may be a better play to draw the defense and use his vision and passing skills to get the better shot. But that means less points for James, and less recognition in the box score.

    James' mind will be forced to adjust to a new set of variables in Miami. And they're much, much better. In other words, the scoring probabilities of his teammates have risen to heights he's never seen.

    This is why some believe James will become the first person in nearly a half-century to average a triple-double. He just received a new batch of toys and he can pass to them without lowering the chances his team will score. But the big question remains: Is LeBron willing to trade personal glory for the sake of victory?

    It all comes down to the framework of WPA. James would have to pass up the shot that he loved to take in Cleveland because probabilistically it may be the better play with his new Super Friends. But as any coach will attest, player ego often gets in the way of a team's goals. If James swallows his pride and makes the pass to an open Wade for a game-winning shot, it wont signal that Wade is The Man, even if that's what the media would decide. In reality, it means James has fully recognized his role as the facilitator of victory, whether that's taking the big shots or creating better ones for his teammates.

    Unlike the start-and-stop style of baseball and football, basketball is largely a fluid game with little opportunity to press the pause button and establish new discrete games states like an at-bat in baseball or a down in football. And for that reason, we're a long ways from developing a WPA for the hardwood.

    But in the meantime, the blueprint still provides an innovative way to think outside the box score.
     
  15. lakerman24

    lakerman24 Member

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    I find this to be the funniest thread ever on S2.


    HAHA HK, you're a funny guy. I guess we can respect LeBron more than Kobe, I mean, LeBron has done SO much more in his career......

    Lakers suck. I don't like the way they're heading. I mean, back 2 back championships, and very likely a third coming, the whole organization is stupid, unfair, and skewed. We should trade Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum for Greg Oden. That way we have someone who has a higher PER playing alongside Pau Gasol. We'll be more respectable then.

    By the way, I'm officially rooting for no team, but I'll put the Chicago Bulls as my picture and follow them. After all, they got pretty good this summer with Boozer, Korver, and CJ Watson joining the mix.

    But wait, no, I'm REALLY rooting for no teams. I'm just rooting for lakerman24.

    Oh, and Lakers suck.

    ^Haha thats how you sound, HK.
     
  16. Pablo23

    Pablo23 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Why all this talk about PER, metrics, Stats, bullshiz bullshiz bull shiz? Here is a simple argument:

    Cavs win the best record the last two years with the MVP (LeBron James) in their team = ZERO Titles.

    Lakers do not win the best record in the last two years, no MVP in their team = Two Titles.

    Therefore; Having the best record and so called MVP doesnt guarantee a championship.

    You can talk about all the stats, metrics, PER, and bullshiz, but evey team still has to play 82 games and five rounds of basketball to be crowned the NBA champion. In the mean time, Lakers are the 2 Time Champs.

    And I'm also really confused about HK's argument, what are you trying to probe? Are you trying to convince your self that the HEAT are the best team? You obviously belive that. If you are trying to convince us that the HEAT are the best team we obviously going to argue against it as we still have some basketball to play. NOw if down the road the things are different and LAkers are no longer contenders, then I think many us Laker fans will admit what ever scenerio.
     
  17. QuickShift

    QuickShift Revenge Is Coming

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    HK, What turned you off about the Lakers so much that you turned away from them?
     
  18. huevonkiller

    huevonkiller Change (Deftones)

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    My development into an objective analyst, that came with time. That combined with the new LA attitude which was not around in 2006. Rather than rely on greatness, made up intangibles that I simply don't see supported anywhere.

    Your criticism was naive as it is, in a one game sample size anything can happen.

    And? What about it?


    Well I'm not really discussing anything with you anymore in this thread, so no need to worry. Some people are distorting my own views and explanations though, so I will certainly address that.

    I was referring more to this post:

    http://sportstwo.com/threads/165514...r-Chris-Paul?p=2392731&viewfull=1#post2392731

    I think people like that can't complain about passive-aggressive anything, they opened themselves up for criticism.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2010
  19. huevonkiller

    huevonkiller Change (Deftones)

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    This "study" you gave me was for games 1-6, you can't sass me. :pimp:

    June 15 specifically.

    Stop with this silly discussion, you have no stats, only intangibles. Your argument equals intangibles it is really that simple.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6508

    98.7 offensive rating, 111.6 Defensive rating, on 32.1% possessions for Kobe in 2008.

    He was horrific, in contrast LeBron was at a 103 offensive rating per 32% possessions, and a D-rating in the 90s.


    This is without Kobe's huge chokejob in Game 7. Let BBR do this stuff instead, PPP is diet offensive rating.

    LeBron against top 5 defenses, last 28 games (09 playoffs- 2010 playoffs):

    1153 minutes
    30.5 PPG
    12.25 fta
    58.25 TS%
    7.6 rpg
    7.8 apg
    4.1 tpg

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7079

    Reality time, Kobe did the majority of his damage against the Suns, the 8th worst defense.

    Against the top 10 defenses in the playoffs Kobe had a 103.9 offensive rating, per 33.9% possessions.

    Pau Gasol was better against top defenses this year.


    Interesting article, and surprisingly positive.

    We can explain nearly everything on offense in apbr, defense is trickiest though.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2010
  20. ivey

    ivey Member

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    HK, if advanced stats say Kobe is not a good clutch player, do you instantly believe it ?
     

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