This is not a big problem, imho - as usage% does not really measure dribbling and dominating the ball - just the participation in offensive sets. If Ellis can thrive off-the-ball in catch and shoot situations or as a guy that gets the ball in movement - it would work just fine. If he needs to dribble the ball to be effective - it might not. I am not that sure where Ellis falls on this scale - but the usage% issue would not worry me much. This would be much more of an issue in Miami, imho, as their big 3 had a combined USG% of close to 100% - one of these guys is not going to look so hot from a statistical point of view, so if they can not close the deal next year, there will be a fall-out imho.
I agree. Don't bother quoting me if you aren't referring to anything, or reading my comment. He was awful last year and this year. Like I stated, he's terrible as a #1 option. Primarily with D-Leaguers as teammates. Two years ago, playing with decent teammates, he was a really good #2/3 option for GS. Would he accept going back to that? Maybe not. But GS isn't going to let him do what he did last year, with their comments about building around Curry. Lik thers have said, it's high risk, high reward. Depending on the price, I think it's definitely worth it.
I think we might have a better fit next to Roy in Matthews. The more I've thought about it, assuming there are no big trades, the more I like a Matthews/Batum/Roy 1-2-3 with LMA and Oden. Great Defense. Let's Roy get in the passing lanes, two three point shooters, Roy can defend the worst guy 1 thru 3 on the other team. Yeah I like it, as long as they can get the ball over half court it could be nice.
I like that as a situational lineup. My only concern, outside of imrpovement by Batum, is having only one wing player that can creat his own shot. We struggled against Houston in the playoffs because if they focused on Roy, nobody else stepped up. Similar situation last year, except with Phoenix focusing on Miller. You need to have more than one person that can create with the ball in their hand. I don't see Matthews as that.
Yeah, it probably is more situational then anything, I'm just tired of Miller's flat as a pancake jumper. Hopefully we will get Paul or Collison and this won't be an issue. I definitely like that lineup to lock down another team that has a good back court and weak front court. That's another thing. With a healthy front line I'm hoping for Oden and LMA to put up bigger offensive numbers this year as each one relieves defensive pressure off the other. Teams will think twice about double teaming LMA with Oden lurking near the rim.
Except in this case it absolutely measures the amount of time Ellis spends dribbling the ball and pounding the rock on the perimeter looking for a driving lane so he can get his own shot. He's not an off-the-ball player, he's not much of a shooter and there would be some serious friction between he and Roy if they were paired up in a starting back-court.
Indeed, this is why part of me wonders if Collison wouldn't be a better fit next to Roy then Paul. I mean obviously if Roy couldn't adjust next to Paul we'd have to figure something out that probably involved trading Roy. Anyways, before I go way off the deep end with hypotheticals let me just spit out my point. It might be better to find a younger less established (read large egoed) PG to play next to and defer to Roy. That's why my list of reasonable possibilities (assuming CP3 is staying in NOH) reads like this: 1. Collison 2. Conley Jr. and it gets hazy after that trying to find young PG's who defend reasonably well, don't require high USG% and can shoot the ball well. Conley Jr. IMO is much better then his stats would indicate due to being stuck in Basketball and real life hell of Memphis.
Ellis's best year, efficiency wise, was 2008 - where he had a 22% USG% playing next to B-Diddy and his 26% USG% Again, a couple of guys in the 25% USG% do not worry me that much - what worries me about Ellis is the fact that he is not a great 3P% - he is actually, career wise, as good as Bayless is in this department - and if you look at their career PER, TS% and the like, I would say that keeping JB in the secondary scorer role is likely to be just as effective as getting Ellis, at this point in time.
Exactly right. It's the fact that both Ellis and Roy are ball dominant and that neither are great in spot up or catch and shoot situations that makes them untenable as a duo -- they play the same way except that Roy is much, much more efficient and much, much better ... it's the same reason I've been saying that I don't think Bayless is the starting point guard of the future for this team because he's such a mediocre off-the-ball player. I'd much rather see Conley, Collison, Holladay (pipe dream), or another young pass first guy with legitimate 3 point range and some playmaking ability than to see the team add yet another combo guard to the roster ... especially a combo guard who has only ever played for Don Nelson in the NBA and costs 8-9 million a year.
The interesting thing with usage, if you combine it with assist %, you can see how often that player is truly involved in the team's plays. As Idog pointed out, usage is sometimes tough to judge a player on, because finishing a possession with a jumper after running off of a screen and catching a pass counts the same as pounding the ball for 22 seconds and hoisting up a jumper. No real way to see how much that player has the ball in their hands. Still, you watch enough games, and get used to a guy with a high usage because of having the ball(Roy, Ellis, etc.), or finishing possessions(Rip Hamilton). Assist % is the amount of possessions finishing with an assist from that player. Combining that with usage is basically how many possesions involve that player in some fashion or another. Ellis had a 29% usage. And an assist % of 21. So he was basically involved in the finish, good or bad, of 50% of his team's possesions. Roy had a 27% usage. And an assist % of 23. Also around 50% of the team's possesions. Darren Collison had a 23% usage. And an assist % of 33. He was involved in 56% of his team's possesions. Looking at N.O., Collison was only assisted on 32% of his baskets. Which was less than Roy's 34%, and, surprisingly, Ellis' 36%. So while Collison looks to be the better fit than Ellis, he actually had the ball in his hands more often for N.O. than Ellis did for GS. Yet Ellis isn't afit because he'd need the ball in his hands too much?
Per/36, though, Collison had 7.4 assists, while Ellis only had 4.6 assists. Collison is much more willing (and better) at getting teammates baskets.
You're getting way too caught up in the numbers instead of looking at actual skill-sets and how they might compliment the rest of the team. Collison is an actual point guard who can run a team and get others involved (his high assist percentage bears that out), he's also a very good three point shooter (how many of those were off the catch and how many were pull-ups is important to consider) but the fact is that if you want a guard to pair up with Roy he has to have a couple of skills that set him apart from Brandon 1) he provides space when Roy does drive becuase he's a deep threat when he's off the ball, and 2) he's much more likely to generate good shots for Nic, Aldridge and Oden when he's tasked with handling the ball and running the point. Ellis overlaps with Brandon enough that I think they end up getting in each other's way (like having two low post scorers on the floor at the same time).
I'm speaking to the issue of Ellis being ball dominant. If the worry is that Ellis needs the ball in his hands to be effective, than Collison is even more so along those lines.
I agree with this. Collison for Rudy will be a fantastic deal for both teams, if NOH really is trying to make CP3 happy. Add the fact that Collison seems to do well against fast opposing PGs on defense (A Blazers weakness) and I would love to see this deal happening. If we need to sweeten it with money/rights to Doron Shefer - so be it.
Interesting points. However, IMO Collison > Ellis due to youth, contract, lack of injuries and 3 ball shooting. Same with Conley Jr. as an intangible with Mike you also get familiarity/friendship with Oden. http://www.basketball-reference.com...008&p2=conlemi01&y2=2009&p3=collida01&y3=2010
I'm pretty sure we'd have to give up more then just Rudy. Either Rudy + Bayless for Collison and Wright or Rudy + Joel for Collison + Posey. I like the first better.
Well D69 (from clubblazers.com) did allude to a potential trade for Collison if the Rudy to Boston deal goes down: something like Sheed's imminent retired contract, Bayless and Dante to NO for Collison and Posey. Who knows, maybe we skip the middle man altogether with Boston and ship the Hornets Rudy, Bayless and Joel for Collison and Posey? (which doesn't work under the CBA)
I'd want a 1st round pick too. I like Collison, but that seems like over paying to me. Two talents + an expiring and we take back a bad contract? No. We want a 1st too. This isn't CP3 we're talking about.
Think about how highly teams covet good young point guards? When you factor in the scarcity and the difficulty of acquiring a guy who can actually run your team at a high level you almost always have to "overpay." In this case I don't see how New Orleans would part with their first round pick, in fact we'd probably have to send along a cool 3 million to sweeten the pot. Edit: we're talking about parting with a disgruntled shooting guard whose value is severely diminished, a combo guard with middling shooting percentages and below average court vision and a center coming off of a major knee injury ...
I agree we will need to overpay - but I think that the idea that you need to take a bad contract and Collison for Rudy (a player that feels a big need for them) and other young assets (JB, for all his faults, is as big an asset as Collison is for the right team, imho) - just makes no sense. Add the fact that NOH needs to get something done as well, it's not just the Blazers that have a need - NOH have a big need as well - convince CP3 to drop his trade request...
