Anderson Silva: I think Vitor Belfort should get his shot. If he beats Vitor, either let him move up to 205 permanently or set up a rematch with Chael Sonnen. Chael Sonnen: Obviously a rematch is instant $$$ but I think he needs to earn it. He didn't lose a decision, he tapped. Give him a #1 contender match against ??? Thiago Alves: Dana says he's going to move him up to 185, but that is a huge mistake for Alves. He doesn't have the height or the reach to fight there, he'll get tooled. He needs to keep his walking around weight down and cut back on the weight lifting. Jon Fitch: Ricardo Almeida: ??? Matt Hughes: ??? Junior Dos Santos: That's obvious, he gets the winner of Lesnar/Velasquez. The fight against Roy was great for him, IMO. If Lesnar/Cain can take him down...he's fucked, IMO. He is very strong on the standup, but his game is so easy to decipher. If Brock/Cain can eat his punches and get him down, he might be fucked. Roy Nelson: Winner of Mir/Big Nog.
Roy Nelson vs. Shane Carwin makes sense. Or the loser of Mir/Nog as you suggested. Chael Sonnen vs. Alan Belcher. Thiago Alves vs. loser of Shields/Kampmann. Jon Fitch vs. winner of Shields/Kampmann. Matt Hughes vs. Jake Ellenberger. Ricardo Almeida vs. whoever, not really important. Dennis Hallman maybe. JDS vs. winner of Velasquez/Lesnar.
I agree with all these fights except Chael vs Belcher, my pick would be Chael vs Demian Maia(if Maia wins at 118). Fits time wise with both guys fighting now in August and probably being ready at about the same time as long as Maia doesn't get hurt, whereas Belcher needs to recover from his eye surgery before he can even start training again. Plus it would be nice to see Chael beat a top level submissions guy like Maia before getting another title shot, it's been a hole in his game for years that needs fixing, and fighting Maia would give him a chance to avenge his only other loss in the UFC outside of vs Silva.
Nelson-Carwin ftw. How about Sonnen-Leben? Leben coming off 3 straight wins. It would be a brawl. Dunno about Alves coming off losses to the two best welterweights in the UFC. IMO he has no shot at 185 hes just gotta figure out how to make 170 work for him. Its a deep division, give him another shot at a low level 170 lber. Fitch vs. winner of Kampmann-Shields sounds good. Fitch-Shields could actually be interesting. No idea for Matt Hughes or Almeida. Obviously JDS vs. winner of Brock/Velasquez. Guida-Gomi? What about Struve? Struve-Russow? Pat Barry? Gilbert Yvel?
You gotta figure both guys will pace themselves given their last performances, Carwin especially. Still a good fight but I'd expect to see it go to a decision.
The only way it goes to a decision is if Carwin blows his load in the 1st round again. There is no way Roy can handle Carwin's punches for a full 3 rounds...JDS is strong, but he isn't Carwin strong. I'd love to see Roy/Mir, though.
Nelson seems to have decent conditioning. Got pummeled against JDS but was always backing JDS down throughout the fight. His ground game is a lot better. Carwin's conditioning is a big question mark. Roy probably wouldn't fare well standing with Carwin but hes got some good power so you never know. His best shot is obviously to stretch the fight out and test Carwin's conditioning and get on the ground by any means necessary to see if you can finish it with BJJ. Roy is pretty damn crafty, I can see him pulling a Werdum and dramatizing a punch to coax Carwin into attack mode and hitting him with a sub. His BJJ looked awfully bad against Brock.
His BJJ is awfully bad if he got submitted by Brock. I'd love to see Roy beat Carwin and I think he could if he made it out of the 1st round or was able to get him down...but we saw Gab Gonzaga get Carwin down only to be put to sleep a minute or so later.
