Oden was amazingly effective when he was on the court last year. Oden had the 2nd highest PER of any second-year player in the last ten years, behind only LeBron. The rest of the top ten in order: DWade, CP3, Yao, Steve Francis, Kirilenko, Shawn Marion, Boozer, and Durant. The list essentially breaks down into 3 tiers: LeBron 25.7 Oden and DWade 23.1 CP3 22.0 to Durant 20.8 http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=mSnTo Greg is now entering his third year. Let’s look at what the other nine players on this list did in their third years. LeBron: 1st team all-NBA, PER +2.4 DWade: 2nd team all-NBA, PER +4.5 CP3: 1st team all-NBA, PER +6.3 Yao: 3rd team all-NBA, PER +1.3 Francis: all-star, PER -2.5 (missed 25 games) Kirilenko: all-NBA 2nd team defensive, PER +1.5 Marion: no honors. PER -1.2 Boozer: no honors, PER -1.6 (missed 31 games) Durant: all-NBA 1st team. PER +5.4 Six of these players made an all-NBA team, one more made the all-star game, and only two didn’t make the all-star game. So when Greg says he’s preparing to make the all-star game, it is a reasonable goal. Incidentally, all five of the Blazers starters appear high on the list: Oden 2, 1st among centers Miller 16, 3rd among PGs (CP3, Francis) Roy 20, 3rd among 2-guards (dWade, Redd) Aldridge 30, 10th among PF Batum 40, 5th among SF (LeBron, Kirilenko, Marion, Gay)
It should be noted that we have yet to see Greg Oden at 100%. He still hasn't played in top basketball shape yet. Furthermore, we still haven't learned to play with him. I remain as high on GO as I was before his MF. He's going to be a dominant pivot.
Too bad that was his third season, and that the sample size was too small to be reliable. Don't get me wrong - PER is a useful tool, and better than most of the advanced stats flying around. (at least IMHO) The catch is, the fact that it is playing time neutral can be both a strength and a weakness.
You're making a point I don't think you see. Imagine of GO were 100% healthy. Imagine if he could play without having to constantly worry about foul trouble? Imagine if he could get into a groove. Imagine if the team got accustomed to playing with him? The answer in all those cases is his PER would go UP not DOWN.
Nobody's going to argue that fervently against Greg Oden's on the court capabilities. He's had enough 20/10-ish games and he looks SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO good when he plays. Nobody that's actually paying attention is going to dis Greg Oden for his game play.
My feelings are above. I have no doubts that healthy - the kid is a beast. I just hope he can finally be - because when he does - this team is going places.
PER doesn't really translate to GO's strong suit, which is anchoring a defense. His defensive ratings are even better than is offensive ones.
As much as you're going to keep trying to say it was his third, the NBA and analysts recognize it as his second season of playing.
Bingo! And having Mar-Cus Camby as his backup is mind boggling from a defensive POV. Not to mention if Pryz shows up to play.
So, he isn't an RFA next summer and a UFA the summer after? Cool! That will make life for the Blazers much easier, as they can delay making a decision on an extension. Contractually/legally this is his 4th season in the league. For the team, that is the only relevant yardstick - when his rookie deal ends and he either gets an extension or becomes a FA. The fans can pretend the 07-08 season doesn't count, but the team doesn't have that luxury!
Because you say it is his contract that determines what year he is playing in doesn't make it so. We could easily say that a player's rookie year is when a team first obtains their rights. That would also be silly and meaningless.
His contract has nothing to do with what's being discussed. So for the topic on hand, there is only one yardstick that makes sense to use, and that's seasons on court.
This discussion isn't centered around his contractual status--it's centered around his on-court development. In terms of his contract, yes, he's entering his fourth year. In terms of NBA experience, he's entering his third. When we're discussing contractual issues, then it makes perfect sense to refer to him as a fourth-year player, but not when we're discussing on-court production. Or, what GOD said...
That's the only relevant yardstick for his pay, yes. It's not the only relevant (or even the most relevant) yardstick for measuring basketball development. That year counts toward his free agency and it counts toward his reaching his athletic prime...but it doesn't count toward his skills development or NBA experience.
