I'm with the it was his 3rd year people. The point of the nba rookie contract is that it gives teams 4 years to evaluate a player. We're going into the last year we can use to evaluate Oden and we simply do not have ample evidence to do any sort of evaluation.
Which season was Oden eligible, according to the NBA, for rookie of the year? Answer, his second contract season, because it was his rookie season on the court.
Perfectly true....but you cannot evaluate a player's value to the team without factoring age and contract into the equation. When Cho and company sit down to evaluate Oden, they won't be grading a 3rd year player - they will be judging him as a 4th year player who they must extend, or let become a RFA. They will be judging Oden in a context that many fans want to ignore.
This thread is about comparing the production ratings of players' second year on an NBA court, with a secondary discussion of projecting that production forward. The contract year is meaningless to this discussion. Or, what 90% of the rest of you already said.
Yep. From a business/evaluation standpoint, the Blazer have to consider the lost 2007-08 season in their new contract negotiations with Oden's agent. Seems pretty basic to me.
Yes, but this sort of rationality flies in the face of the rampant pessimism required to be one of the Cool Posters on the forum!
I think the whole 2nd vs 3rd year argument is irrelevant anyways. I would suspect his PER is still impressive even if compared to other 3rd year players (or same age players, or whatever other comparison floats your boat). His PER would have been impressive for a 10 year vet. Let's just hope he can stay on the floor long enough to provide that PER towards the team winning.
I agree, but this thread didn't seem to be about his overall value, counting in financial considerations. To me, at least, it seemed to be about his on-court value...in which case, he's a "second-year" player in the ways that matter to his development as a player. The NBA agrees with that, as he was named to the All-Rookie team season before last. In terms of contractual obligations, he's a third year player. I quite agree.
It's his third year if a monkey farted in lemon pudding, his fourth year if my nuts get tasered by a PCP addled celebrity chef. At least it's not his fifth since Jenny Jones hasn't been skinned, revealing the inside-Jenny minny -Dick Van Patton.
All-hail Oden. All hail the dude that plays in 30% of the games since joining the team and barely averages 20 minutes a game before running out of gas and finding himself in foul trouble because he can't move his feet. Somewhere I read the guy averages over 8 fouls per 48 minutes played. He won't finish the season. We'll be lucky to see 20 games out of him this season.
Re: Oden: 2nd Best PER for a Second-Year Player in Last Ten Years sure, but who has the best WS/48 for second year players in the last ten years? STOMP
http://www.emptythebench.com/2010/03/25/greg-oden-vs-joakim-noah/ "This is a tough decision because one guy provides a shot at extreme dominance for what’s bound to be a short amount of time versus a consistently good performer who will never be the chief reason a team is winning an NBA title. If my GM job was on the line, though, I’d have to take Joakim Noah simply because Oden is starting to look like damaged goods. If it’s not one thing, it’s another. He’s had multiple, long-term issues with his knees, and his temperament has swung back-and-forth each time. Noah is a known commodity who you can safely pencil in as your team’s best defender, rebounder, and hustle guy for years to come."
Not to get nit-picky, but statistically speaking, we find that PER has a very small variance (deviation from average total seaons' minutes) at around 400 minutes played for starters. So the translation for the non-"stat geeks" out there is that the couple hundred guys that start all of their games and play the majority of the season (usually around 2,000+ minutes) by the time those guys are at 400 minutes, their PER is 97% accurate as to what it will be for their full season. IE - 80 minutes would be a small sample size with a huge variance and his PER could be 20 and end at 12, but a starter with 400 minutes played and a PER of 20 would likely end around 19-21. Oden played over 500 minutes, and all 500 minutes were as a starter, so he lines up with the statistical norm of likely ending around a 23-25 PER. One could make the case if he only played 16 mpg that he was getting extra rest playing smaller stints of time or against 2nd team defenses compared to guys that play 32 mpg. But in Oden's case was still starting and playing starters minutes (just slightly lower due to fouls but not enough to affect stamina one way or another) and he met the spirit of a starter going through to 500 minutes played. So that assertion of "sample size" is technically false in this instance.
Noah has more upside simply because he's on the court, has improved year to year and is nearly leading the league in rebounds. I'd rather have a player with passion and fire with above average skills who gives 100% every play opposed to a player who makes 1/3 of the games, and even in those, plays around 20 minutes and looks out of gas. I'm surprised that people think Oden will suddenly become healthy, when his issues date back college. I'd love to see the guy prove me and a growing number of fans wrong...but, I'm simply realistic about his potential. He can't stay on the court.
That's fine as far as his NBA career is concerned and maybe in the long run it will stand that his efficiency in his second NBA year was impressive and continued to be in his NBA career. Problem is I don't give a shit about his career in the NBA. I care about his career as a Blazer. The NBA isn't going to give us an extra year on his rookie contract because he was injured a lot. It's entirely possible that this will be his last year as a Blazer.
If it is, then the length of the contract also doesn't matter, since we're just fucked retroactively. So if you have that opinion (that this is his final year as a Blazer) why contribute to this thread at all?
Noah has more upside simply because he has French connection, and they smoke a lot in France, and as such, he can smoke more stuff that will make him high (thus his upside is higher). Luckily for us, we have Batum whose connection to France is upside'ier than Noah, so we are covered there.
