I've read that GS is one of the teams on his "wish list." Would you try to get him? If so, do you think GS has a realistic package to offer? What package could GS offer to get it done? It would have to be Monta, along with some serious sweeteners. Like Monta/Beans? Or Monta/Wright/Udoh + picks Or something... Anyway, a Curry/Melo/Lee trio would be neat to watch IMO
I do think the Warriors have the assets that would intrigue Denver. There are many caveats to this deal, which make it a questionable move for the Warriors. For one, Carmelo Anthony's stats do not support his "superstar" status. Like Monta of last year, Anthony is a volume scorer with average scoring effiency. He scores a lot and beautifully (like Monta), but at a rate that costs his team possessions. He's a defensive liability and worst of all, he would command a max contract. There's an interesting thread on GSoM that compares his TS% to Corey Maggette's. And Maggette comes out on top. It just suggests that Carmelo Anthony may not be the franchise player that everyone thinks he is. Since he's been in the league, he's made the playoffs, but the players around him weren't slouches. He's also been ousted in the first round of every playoff appearance but for one (the year Billups was traded to the Nuggets). If we can trade Monta (volume scorer) + fillers for Melo (volume scorer), then I think that's fair, and would help the team win more. Melo has size and allows for more mismatches than Monta. But, when we start talking about Biedrins + Monta, then I have to pause. While it's still intriguing and I still might do it, especially if Melo DOESN'T sign the offered 65m extension. See, if we can get Melo as a one-year rental by giving up Biedrins and Monta, it gives the Warriors instant contenders in the 2012 FA market. If Melo signs his extension, it takes away that flexibility, and possibly the chance at re-signing Stephen Curry. I think in this situation, the Warriors could survive a year with a makeshift center rotation, as long as we have legitimate size and decent defense. Once we start talking about Stephen Curry in a trade for Anthony, then all bets are off. It's a non-starter. I think it's easy to jump at this and say that we'd be getting a bonafide "superstar" but a closer look at his statistics will show otherwise. Yes, he's extremely skilled and scores in a variety of ways, but he doesn't create for his teammates and doesn't play good enough defense to warrant that status (and a max contract).
Yeah, I agree, I don't see him as a franchise cornerstone, but I do see him as a star player, much more so than Monta. I also agree that there is NO WAY we trade Steph Curry. But Monta/Udoh/Filler + picks... that's pretty tempting...
I hate to say it, but I also think Carmelo would be a bad for for the Warriors. And I think quite highly of him. The major problem was stated, basically his value (both in what it would require to trade for him, and how much we would have to pay to retain him) is too high for the return we'd get. He'd definitely contribute to wins, but they'd be very costly wins. Almost certainly, Denver would ask for Curry and several additional first round draft picks. If they asked for almost anything but Curry, well, I'd do that in a heartbeat, but there's plenty of other teams that could probably offer something much more enticing. So basically I think the rumor/suggestion of GS is a bit far-fetched for both Denver and GS. It's nice to think about, though.
If we can swap Monta+ (other than Beans or Curry) than I think it's a good move simply because of what it means from the perception of the new ownership. I've never been much of a Melo guy. Honestly, I think he ends up staying in Denver. This posturing sounds a lot like what happened with Kobe before he signed his extension.
Random thought...IF the Dubs traded Curry+ For Melo and Were able to get Rubio+ for Ellis+ would it be worth it? Not that it's feasible. Just wondering how much everyone is in love with Curry.
As you guys said, there's no way I would trade Curry but I would trade prety much anything else to make it happen. I was thinking Monta, Beans, and Wright should be pretty close to whatever else they can get, but I want him so sign the extension for the W's to try to get him. He hay not make his teammates that much better but that's not really his job, it's Curry's. He's there to score and take over at the end of games. And without Melo, I don't think those Denver teams were really that good. Nene is just now getting good, but for most of his career he's been below average (though this may have been because of injuries). K-mart is overrated, if it weren't for Kidd he never would have got that contract. I like Billups but before him, Melo played with Andre Miller and AI at PG and I don't like either of them. Basically, I think the fact that they made the playofs every year is 100% because of him. One thing Denver does have, that the Warriors would need to get, is garbage guys like Anderson and Camby. Udoh could be one of those guys, as could Barnes if we could get him back. Two problems with getting him is that I would rather not have Lee and his contract with Melo and, as much as I don't like Nelson, I think he would make Melo an MVP candidate. Melo can pass as a 4 so when Nelson goes small, they won't be getting screwed, as much, on the boards. Plus, with players trying to team up, whatever teams gets him will instantly be on the wish list of other FAs or disgruntled superstars. I know there's a new CBA coming up but there's going to have to be some sort of exception for contracts signed before, there's no way the NBA would screw the Heat like that. And I think there will always be a market for Lee if the W's just wanted to get rid of him to free up money.
Responding to the statements I put in bold. 1) He's going to command a max contract and his productivity doesn't warrant one. One stat that favors Melo is his game-winning shots made and percentage made and his "clutch" performance. Take a look at this link from 82games.com: http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm From their data sample, Melo ranks 5th overall for game-winning shots at a very good .481% (13-27). Also, his "clutch" performance in 08/09, he ranks third overall: http://www.82games.com/0809/CSORT11.HTM These stats, as with all stats, are debatable and need to be put in context. For example, how many shots did Carmelo Anthony miss to put him and his team in a position to have to take that game-winning shot? Or more importantly, how many of the opportunities the Nuggets lost because he missed the game-winning shot was because of Anthony's misses throughout the game? 2) Carmelo Anthony's first year in the league was accompanied by a significant roster turnover by the Nuggets. Compare 2003 with 2004. Note Anthony's Wins Shared per 48 stat in 2003/2004 compared to the rest of his teammates. The evidence shows that Anthony was far from being the reason for the Nuggets' success. 3) This has some validity. Melo is a very popular player with fans and other players. But, if the Warriors inherit the 65M contract, in addition to Lee's contract, this might be difficult. The Celtics players' took a paycut for them to stay together as did LeBron, Bosh, and Wade. I don't the Warriors get that luxury at this point. And you're suggesting trading Lee in order to fit Melo? That doesn't make sense unless we have another player that can replace Lee's rebounding.
I'm suggesting trading away Lee to fit another star to go with Melo. Melo and Lee will both be overpaid and they both have flaws, but i would much rather build around Curry/Melo than Curry/Lee. It's not like Lee is some role player who is just here to pull rebounds; he was brought here to be a 20/10 franchise player and I don't think he can do that, at least not for a good team. He would have much more value to me if he were the #2 or 3 big on the roster and did not cost $10+M. The Warriors have not had a player of Melo's caliber since I've been watching (RunTMC days) but they have had plenty of guys who were excellent rebounding role players like Hill, Fortson, Marshall, even Owens. If the W's were to trade away Lee, for nothing, I'd be reasonably confident that they could find someone to rebound (and not have to be a primary scoring option) for not all that much money. I'm not saying that trading for him would make the Warriors instant contenders, but I'd feel much better about the top two guys than I do now. Some people would like to build a well rounded team with few flaws and then try to add a star, I'd rather do the opposite, get the star and fill in the role players later.
Interesting, I'm curious to know why you think Melo + Curry is a better foundation than Curry + Lee, especially if Melo is going to command a max contract. IMO, Carmelo Anthony is a tremendously gifted player, but after closely looking at his statistics over his career, nothing stands out except for the quantity of points he scores. Or, another way to look at it is, the amount of possessions it takes for Anthony to score those points. Lee's career TS% is .600 while Melo's is .544, which suggests Lee is a much more efficient scorer than Melo is (Melo has never eclipsed .570%). I view both of them as below-average defenders at their positions. But the biggest difference between the two is the rebounding. Anthony simply is not the rebounder Lee is. Granted, they play different positions, but you're placing false value in volume scoring while I am placing value in Lee's more efficient scoring AND rebounding ability. Why pay more to a guy who does something worse or can't do at all? I don't think Lee was brought here to be a 20/10 guy. I think he was brought here to make the team better, which I think he will simply because of the rebounds he will get, whether or not it'll be 10rpg or not. By giving that up by going with Anthony would be going back to zero again. We already have a volume scorer in Monta. That's why replacing Monta with Melo makes sense, but not at the cost of giving up your rebounding, which was one of the team's most glaring weaknesses last season. IMO, it's a lot easier to replace a scoring wing player than it is a legit PF who can score (efficiently) and rebound.
No, I would NOT trade Curry right now, for pretty much anyone. He is just blossoming too well, too quickly... he has Steve Nash potential and is reaching that MUCH quicker than Nash did... it took 5 seasons for Nash to finally average over 10 points a game, and over 5.5 assists... Curry did it in year 1, averaging 17.5 ppg and 5.9 apg... I think we have finally landed a franchise PG and GS is set for 10+years there. And I also want to see Lee with Curry. SO I wouldn't move him either. Frankly, if you look at other potential packages from other teams, a Monta+ package is probably the sweetest one out there. And I would do dat.
Maybe now is the time where having Larry Ellison as the owner would be really nice. I don't think Ellison would care to go into the luxury tax if he was getting/keeping talent. On the other hand Lacob seemed very hesitant on going into the luxury tax. If we are interested in value, I would have to think Monta Ellis is perhaps one of the best values in the whole league. It's just too bad he's not a couple inches taller. Hopefully Ellis/Curry works out. I am on the fence on this one. On one hand Carmello is a top 5 to 10 player in the league. But if he's not committed to being here long term, then is it worth it? Hoopshype had a rumor of Curry/Biedrins/draft picks for Melo is floating about. This is by Josh Rothstein who adds that GSW is hesitant about letting Curry go. http://hoopshype.com/rumors/tag/golden_state_warriors
Yeah, there's just no point for giving up Curry-Biedrins unless Melo agrees to an extension and convinces Chris Paul to join him here instead of wherever else they were thinking of going. Now I'm definitely entering fantasy-land. Looking at it perhaps cynically, is anyone going to crack L.A. or the Heat for the next few years, anyway? Curry is going to be solid for years down the road, if we can accumulate draft picks and draft steadily around him, then about 3 years down the road, lure a free agent from the '08 or '09 draft classes, I think that would be the best way to secure a long-term outlook and steady wins. Of course, that assumes the Warriors make consistently good draft picks and make good trades to collect additional picks, which may be a long-shot depending on how the GM hiring plays out. The Ellison thing was something that went through my mind as well as far as changing my stance on how the trade would be on the business side. Lacob stated in an interview that he wouldn't go over the tax. If he would change his mind, and if Anthony would sign an extension as part of getting traded, "beating" next year's more stringent rules, then I'd be more for it, but there's little chance of that happening. And as stated, with what we've got to build around and in cap room, Anthony would just be money mis-spent unless other teams became stupid for the Warriors benefit. Better to just be patient for now.
Well, even if an owner is willing to go into the luxury, would you want him/her to do it with Anthony? Given his production efficiency, I don't think it's worth it. But I don't think it's a luxury tax issue. It's an issue of, will Carmelo Anthony get you to the next level? If so, how given his tenure at Denver where he's been ousted from the 1st round of the playoffs 6 out of 7 times (the one time they got to the Conf. Finals)? I'd say Monta Ellis CAN be a great value IF he can get his efficiency back to 07-08 form. Otherwise, he's not really contributing to wins.
Well, if we traded for Melo, we'd have to match his salary. So if we gave up Monta and Biedrins, that's 20M re-allocated to Melo and another player. And looking at our salary forecast, it doesn't look like we'd be going into the luxury. In fact, we'd be well under. I think the issue is: can we sign players to surround/compliment Melo (and Curry) and can we re-sign Curry to a long-term (probably max) deal?
I like Carnello Anthony. I think he would be good for the Warriors. I am not too concerned with his playoff record. Also for his position there are very very few better than him. It's one thing to have high efficiency stats and be a sixth man or role player a la Lee and Maggette. It's a totally different issue when that player is a superstar. So short term I think getting Melo at a reasonable price - Curry, Biedrins, draft picks would be a steal for the warriors. In the long run it would be fine if he commits to stay around longer than just one season. Plus he's still young. He's younger and better than say Danny Granger.
Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning. Maggette was far from a sixth man last season. He was the 2nd leading scorer on the team and played 30mpg. How do you feel Melo "better" than others at his position? How is Anthony a "superstar" when his stats don't support it? The only reason I think he's given a "superstar" status is because of the quantity of points he gets and because he gets them in a "cool" way. The stats suggest, maybe even prove, that his production doesn't contribute to wins. You're proposing trading Curry, Biedrins and draft picks for Anthony? Leaving the Warriors with two prolific volume scorers and no point guard or center, arguably the two most important positions for building a team. I think you're placing false value on Melo because he's "Melo." Don't get me wrong, like I said, I think he's a tremendously gifted player. I think he would help the team win games. But I think the cost of giving up more than Monta is too much. We need Biedrins and we need Curry more than we need Melo. Read this: http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/08/20/a-brief-message-for-fans-of-the-denver-nuggets/
Maggette is at best a starter on a bad team and sixth man on a good team. Carnello is a star on any team. He's also been to the playoffs many more times than Maggette. I'd only imagine that Carmello was the main focus of every opposing team's defense. I don't think Maggette got that attention. Hence Melo's stats are that much more impressive. Carmello averaged about 28 points, 6.6 boards and 3 assists and turnovers per game last season on 46% fg shooting. That seems pretty darn efficient. His playoff stats were even more impressive. Can you name players playing better than this? The only names I can think of are Kobe, LeBron, Wade (who plays a different position), and who else?
Since Lacob is big in having that trio, the best one for the Warriors would be Curry-Melo-Lee. So if (this may be a big if) the Warriors can make a trade and guarantee this trio for multiple years, how can you not be interested? I am less high on Ellis-Melo-Lee, but I think that could be a solid trio too. Again having Ellison as owner would have helped because he would be able to go in the luxury tax, if needed, to keep Curry after his rookie contract is up. Even Lacob has said the top teams are able to go into that level. I think a lot of the criticism Melo is getting is not unlike that of Gasol and KG before they won rings. He may not be MJ or Shaq in his prime that can almost guarantee a finals appearance but he has the talent to be the key player on a contending team if there is some talent around him.
I think you're missing my point. You're going by per game statistics and they're misleading. If you familiarize yourself with advanced statistics, you'll see that Maggette (and I'm not saying Maggette is better, but just using him as a comparison point) was a more efficient scorer. It wasn't pretty, but it got the job done. You're right, we need to account for what the opponent did on defense against the Nuggets, but the point is, Anthony still put up his FGA's, taking possessions away from his team. Look at the Nuggets teams since Anthony was drafted. Those teams were stacked. And then look at the advanced statistics of those players. Sure, Anthony made it to the playoffs every year, but he's been ousted in the 1st round every year except when Chauncy Billups showed up (and the season after, they got ousted in the 1st round, last season). Maybe Anthony was the reason they didn't get far into the playoffs. I think it's important to consider that instead of, he scored 26 points a game... Clif, I get your point, I was arguing the same stuff a few weeks ago. But I had a chance to look a little deeper and my thoughts on Melo have changed quite a bit. Would it be exciting to have him on the team, hell yes, but I'd rather have the team we have now. Call me crazy, but it's the truth. For what Anthony brings to the table, he isn't worth giving up the cornerstone of your franchise and it's debatable whether he deserves what he gets paid. Try looking beyond the hype. And yes, I can name other players that are better than Carmelo Anthony: Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Pau Gasol, etc. I'm throwing in different positions since you're willing to give up Curry and Biedrins to have Melo. Honestly, 6.6rpg and 3apg aren't very impressive for a guy that's lauded as a franchise player. You're paying him to score a lot of points in a "cool" way at any cost.
