When it's all said and done, these three might eventually be looked upon very similarly....when it boils down to expectations/careers vs. injuries. We shall see.
I can understand and respect why someone would compare the three. But, in my opinion, there are glaring differences... The largest being that Oden is the only one out of the three that has not completed a season or proven he can stay healthy through just one season. Ilgauskas played pro-ball before coming to the NBA and played very well in 82 games his rookie season. Yao played pro ball prior to NBA and then played in 82, 82, and 80 games his first three seasons. Oden is the only player out of the three to not complete a season at all. I wouldn't even compare Oden to the other two. YET. I would compare him, so far, to someone like Sam Bowie, although I believe Bowie appeared in more games when comparing season to season. I'm standing firm, as I did pre-draft, that Oden will be a failure - not just compared to Durant, but as a player.
I respect your opinions, as well. However, that said, I was quick to offer, "when it's all said and done.......we shall see." The makings of potential comparisons are certainly there.
Understood. And, I hope you're right and I'm wrong - when it's all said and done. ...I just think we've seen this before and it doesn't end well.
i still don't understand the mindset of hoping someone would fail, just so you can be 'right'. As a Blazer fan you should hope and expect he is everything and more because, really, the team you're a fan of depends on it.
Please remind me or reference any posts where I say I hope Oden is a failure? Maybe take time to read...I HOPE I am wrong. I've said it countless times but I didn't like all the info coming out of pre-draft camps about Oden (health, winded at workouts, Durant "blowing away" staff at workouts while Oden apologized for needing breaks) and everything so far is pointing to the fact that my GUESS and opinion back then, is unfortunately, accurate so far.
Ok. Let's do this again. I hope I am wrong. I hope Oden overcomes a history of injuries and becomes the dominate player we all hoped for. I don't want to be right.... I understand why fans need to find other players to compare Oden to. We're fans. But, I find little to be positive about and not many things in common with Oden and those successful players who battled back. Pre-draft I didn't feed into the hype and looked at both Oden and Durant with a skeptics eye. Oden was winded and apologizing at workouts. Durant blew the staff away. Oden had several medical red-flags on his chart that raised caution. Durant was just, well, Durant... Dude, I will say it again. I don't think Oden plays in 20 games this season. I HOPE I am wrong, and if I am...I'll come and apologize and everyone is welcome to throw pie, and I'll take it like a man. I just don't see it happening, and it IS NOT because I'm hoping for failure. I'm realistic. (sorry for multiple posts...i live out of country with internet that is always timing out)
Link please where we've "seen this before". I think the thing about Oden that creates so much debate and has people so wildly on two sides of the fence is for the precise reason that we've NEVER seen anything remotely close to this before. We have billion dollar magnetic resonance imaging now along with incredible bone density and chemical makeup testing that rule out Oden's injuries being anything remotely related to osteoporosis like we saw back in the 70s and 80s with guys like Bowie or Walton who actually had undetected bone diseases. So we can't compare their injuries or playing careers since that has been ruled out w/ Oden and the injuries, recovery and future injuries and playing time associated won't be close to comparable. Oden hasn't had any soft-tissue injuries with cause ligaments and tendons to not heal 100% and thus possibly create more issues in the future (like we see with Bynum). So we can't use anything like that to say we've seen it before. So please tell me, if we can't use injuries of the 20th century prior to technology and supplements as an indicator and we don't have any situations or injuries similar to Oden to pull from, where exactly have you "seen this before"?
I'm referring more to the pattern of injuries and games played and how those patterns can equal a short lived career, as opposed to specific injuries (see original post and continued thread). As a "math guy" you know there are specific things that are unique to Oden, but patterns that aren't so unique. You appear to have a lot more confidence in science and medicine than I do. I think there is a lot more we can't explain than can. Medicine continues to advance, but it's inevitable that in 30 years, we'll look back and laud over what little we knew back in the 2010's...just like we do now to the 70's. Bottom line, I don't think ANY medical professional would say with the absolute certainty that Oden doesn't have some issue. Something appears to be going on... I guess the overriding question should be, if hindsight is 20/20 and we knew then what we know now, would you draft Durant or Oden? I think it's obvious and will become even more so with the passing of each season.
I think you're now getting into two different areas. It's one thing to talk about comparing Oden to other patterns and careers and attempt to make an educated guess on what our kids will think of his career in hindsight (not from a Blazer fan or draft pick perspective - but the perspective of what his final career came out like). It's something else entirely to begin to talk about whether we should have drafted him, whether Durant would have worked with Roy and still become a star, or whether we'll always look in hindsight at that draft, etc. I think in that case, both kids are so young that it's like compring Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry, Brandon Jennings and Blake Griffin. Some have played, some not. Some have been consistently good while others have shown upside as high as Kobe but then looked awful. Some have looked good but also appear to have huge upside as where others look like we could have already seen them at near peak. So how can anyone debate the next 15 years of play for such a diverse group - same as Durant and Oden. If I'm a 60-year old Blazer fan who has been diagnosed with some illness, then it was the wrong pick. I'm not going to live to see a championship and Durant may have provided that. If I'm a 13-year old Blazer fan who hadn't even had my pubic hairs yet and was still watching Thomas the Train over a Blazer game when Oden had only played 82 games in his first three seasons, but I end up being a Blazer fan through high school and college in the next decade and watch Oden play 70+ games a season going 18 pts/16 reb/3.5 blks and winning three rings and five DPOY titles, then what pick do you think was better to him (even if Durant won an MVP title and scored 35ppg and consistently leads OKC one-and-out in the playoffs every year)? So given the individual, and given the next 10 years and what it holds, the value of picking Oden over KD could go as many directions as an evening in Amsterdam with a thousand dollars in your pocket. We can only sit back and see where the night takes us.
Interesting... The original thread was about expectation, careers and injuries (pattern). I think you're the one taking the discussion to a different area because you're bringing up specifics regarding injuries (and assuming that was my point, which it wasn't). My point was regarding the already glaring difference between Yao, Il and Oden - games played and history of ability to maintain a healthy body through a season (example: patterns, which we've seen before in players who can never overcome injuries). Hey, I've been in Amsterdam with $2,000 in my pocket before. The night ended with a fine dinner and Amstel, a good book and call home to the lovely and every-patient wife who was back home.
Huge difference. When Illgauskas wasn't injured he made a few allstar games in his prime. Yao is argurably the best bigman in the league when healthy. Oden is a decent center at best. He averaged 11 & 9 when he was healthy. Those are pretty average numbers especially for a #1 pick, he's a bust imo.
She doesn't. But I have a conscience and loyalty. I did stroll through the Red Light Dist. 95% of the whores were gross - overweight, ugly and just dirty. The remaining 5% were just, well, whores. Not really my cup of tea (don't let the mullet fool you). The museums, Ann Franke House and Tall Ships Museum were outstanding.
Although not necessarily what I would like, I would be happy if Oden had a Bill Walton type career, he has a couple great years, the Blazers win a championship (or two) but then injuries take their toll and he becomes a talented but limited player due to physical shortcomings. Gramps...
Oden hasn't really injured the same parts of his body while Big Z and Yao have reoccurring injuries. Oden has a more likely chance of staying healthy then those two had/have if we believe that nothing is seriously wrong with his body that is causing him to have so many injuries so far. We were only starting to see his potential last year, it takes 2 years to get back to 100% after a micro fracture surgery. Oden will have a different type of Career then Big Z and Yao, both of those players were #1 options or #2 options on their team when they were in their prime in Z's case, Oden is going to be #3 to #4 on a healthy blazers team. Yao/Z score but i'v never been high on either at the defensive end, offense is what their careers have been built upon, well what Yao's has been. but Odens will be built upon his defense If he stays healthy.
That would be easy to happen, now that we know he won't make the opening game. If he misses the first 5 games, he'll be playing catchup out of shape as usual, which will probably break him down about 20 games in, like it always does. With Cho's recent announcement that he's nowhere near playing, it now looks likely that you're right. I can't believe some say it doesn't matter that he won't be in full shape for the opening game (even if he suits up). By the time he's in good shape, it'll be almost a full year to recover from what normally takes 3 months at most. He has the slowest recovery time of any athlete I've ever seen. But management is also very, very slow to let him make a timely comeback each time, which then forces him to play catchup against players in condition, and get injured again. The way to break the cycle was to do whatever was necessary to have him in shape by the start of camp. Management hasn't figured that out yet--the cause of the recurring cycle. Let him play!
"When it's all said and done." That's an interesting phrase when you think about it -- lots said, not much done. I'm ready for people to stop talking about what he will do or won't do and just let this guy play out the string.
