How many wins do you expect a healthy Blazer team to get?

More than 4 games.

I could see this team if healthy winning somewhere around 60 games.

 

62 wins. Provided Roy and Oden stay healthy and we don't get absolutely decimated with injuries at other positions.

Yeah, it's a pretty damned big caveat.

 

I would argue that Babbitt is going to neutralize the loss of Martell. Here's my thinking (I'm not not into unsupported conclusory statements); I think Babbitt will be better than Martell because of rebounding and consistent shooting. I was actually quite impressed with his rebounding in summer league, particularly on offense. He showed an instinct for the ball that guys like Camby and Keve Love have, and guys like LaMarcus and Amare don't. And I think Babbitt's shooting will be, once he's comfortable, more consistent if not a higher average than Martell making him a more predictable tool in the toolbox. Marty was really streaky. I think predictable makes for easier match up analysis by coaches, and better utilization. I got the feeling Martell was put in at times and the coaches just hoped he could score. When he missed a couple he'd get benched. Trial and error, but in the meantime the game could get farther away. Babbitt as a more reliable shooter would mitigate that. The one area I think Martell will be missed is his on the ball defense, I don't see Babbitt as good. But on the whole I think Babbitt will at least even out the loss of Martell's contribution.

I agree Blake had a great shooting year, but Miller is so much better at driving and diming. Numerically Miller does more, but being a poor shooting driving guard allows defenses to collapse which clogged the lane. One result was LaMarcus being forced outside even more and getting double teamed easier. I'm honestly still not sure how to rate this, but if I had to choose I'd rather have Miller.

I think Matthews is going to be a big upgrade as a defender and even though I agree that Rudy had a nice rookie year shooting, I'm assuming Matthews shoots at least the same as he did last year. Plus Matthews doesn't try to do too much and make stupid turnovers, like Rudy was particularly prone to last year, so I don't see how anyone thinks we didn't improve here.

Speaking of Rudy, I'm old enough to remember Bill Walton sitting out the '78/79 season. He ripped the organization for not giving him good medical care and advice, which is different than Rudy's situation, but I'm completely utterly unsympathetic to his complaints and how it's been handled. If I was PA, I'd happily let that stupid Spanish a**wipe sit in Spain for the next two years without playing instead of moving him. I've no patience for this morons who take cheap shots at my Blazers. They need to understand there's a price to pay and they won't $&^*$ like it. I see moving him for a first round pick as a capitulation. Don't encourage future prima donna's from pulling this crap by rewarding him with a move to a team he wants.

This was interesting to me. I wonder if this is how Jeff Ma approaches the analysis. There are so many variables I'm not sure you can break it down to these types of additions and subtractions but maybe someone wayyyy smarter than me has dialed it in.

 

Everyone's basically predicting 50+ wins which translates to playoffs. I don't think wins this season, aside from enough to make the playoffs, defines success. I think making at least the second round of the playoffs defines a successful 2010/11 season.

And a step further, if we don't have significant injuries and still don't make it out of the first round, I don't believe the current roster will improve significantly beyond where it's at and a major move needs to be made involving core player(s).

 

If we talk about the playoffs...I'd be disappointed if a fully healthy squad (that means no core players missing or significantly limited by injuries) didn't reach the Western Conference Finals.

 

I think you would be disappointed then. This team doesn't have the toughness to get that far. Don't get me wrong, I want to at least get to the WC Finals also and would be stoked if we did get there.

 

Playoffs!? Are u kidding me!? Playoffs!?
I'm talking about finals if we stay healthy!
And I'm not even looking through rose colored glasses

 

A healthy Joel was no slouch either, though; I see Camby minus Joel as a net-even on defense for the big guys. The best way for the Blazers to beat that 53 game minimum (my expectations with no optimism or room for improvement thrown in) is for Oden to be on the court and productive for 32-36 minutes a game, for at least 60 games. If he can do that, the sky is the limit.

 

I don't think they're lacking in "toughness." They faced all sorts of adversity last season and still won 50 games, attesting to their mental toughness. If by "toughness" you mean rebounding and defense, they've been one of the best rebounding teams in the league the past two seasons and, when Oden was healthy last year, they were among the better defensive teams.

 

Your nick name should Be BlazerCynic or BlazerPessimist, not BlazerBeliever!!

 

Close. 98.

 

to add on, of course many of Greg's games have come when other key players were banged up or out altogether... from last year Rudy and Batum spring to mind and of course Miller was coming off the bench. I look for Andre and Greg to be a great together.

If the team were to collectively run the injury gauntlet like the Thunder did last year, I think they win 60+ easy... really easy. They've complimentary talents, offensive playmakers, and so much quality size/length on D. Can't wait

STOMP

 

I think you are vastly underestimating Joel here, he is quite the slouch

 

This is the part that I'd be the most confident in, more than wins or losses. The Blazers, with Oden and Camby in the middle, and Batum and Matthews available to defend the best perimeter players, I would expect the Blazers to be a dominating defensive team.

I'm not as sure about the offensive side of the ball, because I'm still not sure where the "rest" (non-Brandon Roy) of the offense comes from. Is Batum a reliable option? Is Aldridge going to finally learn how to make tough shots late in games? What can we expect from Matthews and Babbitt offensively? What about Oden's offense?

Too many questions. But on defense, the Blazers should be better than solid. A healthy Blazer squad should be exceptional.

 

Be curious how many points allowed we allow this upcoming season. It's been a few years since a team has been so good defensively to get below 90 ppg. I know in their prime, the Spur and those championship Detroit teams were down around 84 ppg, but a lot of the best defensive teams were around 87-90 ppg. Now days a dominant defensive teams are around 94 ppg. So I'd like to see this team go retro on this league and get it back into the 80s.

 

How many points were we allowing before Greg and Joel went down?

 

I will always believe in my team. I live and die with them. That doesn't mean I have to settle for an inferior product. And when did you become a global moderator?

 

Does anyone know how to get this info? I would like to know as well.

 

Anyone?

 

Someone already posted this in another post. It was like 90ppg.

That said, the sample size was only 20 games (which a person could make the argument that it could be skewed a little high if we played Golden State or Minnesota or any OT games in excess to the pro-rata 25% average amount of times). You could also make the argument that we had no Batum so our frontcourt starters were mainly Blake, Rudy and Roy for many of those 20 games, so we had a completely different defensive frontcourt from Miller, Roy and Batum.