Yes, And No. I believe we are done falling, (we fell pretty hard, pretty fast), and are now stuck in a huge hole to climb out of. Depending on how long we stay this low I will classify it as a depression.
Yep. HISTORY OF THE NBER Founded in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works. The NBER is committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community.
Hell no. I think it is going to get worse starting right after the first of the year. Just my opinion and I really hoping I'm wrong but doubt it.
NBER is the official source for when recessions start and when they end. They do review the facts as time passes and can adjust when the recessions began or ended. In the meantime, I read this article on CNBC and it's quite alarming. http://www.cnbc.com/id/39271495 Basically it's saying that on top of the $800B so-called stimulus bill and the $700B TARP bill, the Fed has been MONETIZING the debt to the tune of $1.7T and are talking about monetizing another $1T to $2T. Yikes! What is monetization? It's when the Treasury prints money and the Fed uses that new money to buy back (or not issue new) T-Bills. The effect is hugely inflationary, but also keeps interest rates near zero. By definition, the process converts debt into printed money, or the govt. is just running the printing presses to buy all the stuff the govt. is spending on but really can't afford. In the process, the Fed now has all that debt on its books, and at some point it's going to have to borrow an equivalent amount of money to pay those back. The national debt went up over $2T in Obama's first 421 days (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20000576-503544.html) and is still growing at a scary pace. If you consider the monetization of debt by the Fed, the national debt has really gone up $3.7T (and then some, since the date of that CBS News article/link). Inflation is "too many dollars chasing too few goods." Printing money means "too many dollars" is more likely. So people are buying hedges against inflation - gold and oil. http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/20/markets/gold_record/?section=money_latest Gold edges up to a new record It's not a matter of "if" - it's a matter of WHEN. Inflation.
The welfare of the general populace is not really a consideration in labeling a "recession", and it's end has little bearing on your personal future outlook.
"Recession" is a technical term. Technically, the conclusion is correct. The feeling, however, is that there hasn't been a recovery to speak of, so it hasn't felt like we've pulled out of it. Most economic downturns are "V" shaped. This one appears to be "U" shaped with the fear of a "W" shape or even worse, an "L" shape. What the government is doing isn't working. Once the pattern changes, things will improve.
Good point. To me, the key is unemployment. Not how many people are receiving checks, but how many people are actually without work. When that figure gets under 6% or so, I'll believe the recession is ending.
